News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Everything has beauty, but not everyone can see.

–Confucius

 

Egypt GASC bought 55,000 tons of US soft red winter wheat on Saturday for Feb shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 5 ¼ at 1273 ¼
  • CH up ¾ at 433 ½
  • WH up 3 ½ at 572 ½
  • KC WH up 1 ½ at 627 ½
  • MWH up 2 ¾ at 623 ¼
  • SMH down 2.80 at 410.80
  • BOH down 10 at 3813
  • RRH down 4.50 at 1560

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 11,393
  • CH 39,451
  • WH 8,715
  • KC WH 1,101
  • MWH 253
  • SMH 5,163
  • BOH 6,218
  • RRH 20

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn steady to 1 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil  5-15 lower
  • Rice 4-6 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market lower. Dollar higher

 

Nikkei up .2%

Hang Seng up .2%

Shanghai Index down .2%

 

China grain closings – beans unchanged, corn up 2, meal down 21, palm oil down 36, bean oil down 20

 

Palm oil down 23

 

South Korea NOFI bought 137,000 tons of US corn originally destined for China for January shipment

 

TALK Brazil bought 2-6 cargoes of US HRW wheat last week for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Iraq bought 90,000 tons of rice, 60,000 tons from the US and 30,000 tons from Brazil for Feb-March shipment

 

Iran bought 50,000 tons of wheat from Kazakhstan

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 863,205 tons of palm oil in December up 11.5% from November (expecting 650-880K)

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 10.38 MMT of edible oils in ‘12/13 (record)

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 1.07 MMT of veg oils in December up 18% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 107,149 tons of sunflower oil in December up 55% from a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 9.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT

 

Argentina Ag Min weekly Argentine crop report from Friday

  • Wheat harvest complete vs. 97% a year ago
  • Bean planting 86% complete vs. 90% a year ago
  • Corn planting 82% complete vs. 88% a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 19.85 MMT of grain between July 1 – Jan 10th up 34% from a year ago

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia exported 16.384 MMT of grain between July 1-Jan 13 up 26% from a year ago

 

IMEA said on Friday Mato Grosso, Brazil bean harvest is 1.9% complete vs. 1% a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – Nov 2013 soybean crush at 35.0 MMT vs. 35.2 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan-Nov 2013 sunseed crush at 2.5 MMT vs. 3.5 MMT a year ago

 

French government said Dec 1st grain stocks at 20.3 MMT vs. 24.8 MMT a year ago , including 10.5 MMT of wheat (vs. 11.7 MMT a year ago ) and 5.0 MMT of corn (vs. 6.5 MMT a year ago).

 

French government said France exported 5.6 MMT of wheat between July – November 2013 vs. 4.9 MMT a year ago

 

French government said France exported 1.9 MMT of corn between July – November 2013 vs. 2.0 MMT a year ago

 

French government said as of Dec 1st French farmers sold 39.4 MMT of grain vs. 43.8 MMT a year ago

 

China’s General Administration of Customs said Friday that China imported 7.4 MMT of beans in December vs. 6.03 MMT in November

 

China’s General Administration of Customs said Friday China imported 63.38 MMT of soybeans in 2013 up 8.6% from 2012

 

China’s General Administration of Customs said Friday China imported 810,000 tons of veg oils in December up 5.2% from November

 

JCI Intelligence estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 66.5 MMT up 11% from a year ago

 

JCI Intelligence estimated China’s ‘13/14 veg oil imports at 8.1 MMT down 4.2% from a year ago

 

On Friday a barge accident shuts down IL river lock.

 

On Friday SGS estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-10th palm oil exports at 284,693 tons down 22.4% from a month ago

 

On Friday Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-10th palm oil exports at 297,308 down 21% from a month ago

 

Favorable weather in Brazil .

 

Southern Argentina needs more rain.

 

Fund rebalancing continues, ends tomorrow.

 

21 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of The Andersons , Maumee OH

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 254 with the date current
  • Soymeal 1 with the date at 12/05
  • No beans

 

Moving averages

  • SH 200 day 1274 ½
  • CH 50 day 430 ¼
  • SMH 50 day 413.00
  • SMH 100 day 409.50

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Jan 7th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 101,634
  • KC wheat short 8,163
  • Corn short 154,605
  • Beans long 89,898
  • Meal long 22,328
  • Bean oil short 59,839

 

December unemployment report from Friday

  • Dec non-farm payrolls+74K expecting +200K
  • Dec unemployment rate 6.7% expecting 7.0%
  • Nov non-farm payrolls revised to +241K from +203K

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board December data report from Friday

  • Palm oil output at 1.667 MMT expecting 1.67 MMT and vs. 1.86 MMT in November
  • Palm oil stocks at 1.99 MMT expecting 1.96 MMT and vs. 1.98 MMT in November
  • Palm oil exports at 1.508 MMT expecting 1.48 MMT and vs. 1.52 MMT in November

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Weekly report from Thursday afternoon

  • Argentine bean planting 90.9% complete vs. 87.2% a week ago and vs. 90.9% a year ago
  • Argentine bean area estimated at 20.45 MA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine corn planting 82.8% complete vs. 77.1% a week ago and vs. 87.8% a year ago
  • Argentine corn area estimated at 3.3 MH
  • Argentine sunflower harvest 10.5% complete vs. 7.4% a week ago and vs. 12.8% a year ago
  • Argentine sunflower crop estimated at 2.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine wheat harvest 98% complete vs. 84.3% a week ago and vs. 92.2% a year ago
  • Argentine wheat crop estimated at 10.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.35 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 8.8 MMT

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CH 654,026 open, down 569
  • Total corn 1,286,230 open, up 13,078
  • SF 1,148 open, down 828
  • SH 273,490 open, up 1,101
  • Total beans 587,360 open, up 7,385
  • SMF 417 open, down 693
  • SMH 143,429 open, up 2,379
  • Total meal 261,513 open, up 2,661
  • BOF 511 open, down 964
  • BOH 192,232 open, up 631
  • Total bean oil 347,834 open, down 162
  • WH 254,819 open, down 3,205
  • Total wheat 420,244 open, up 2,447
  • KC WH 87,774 open, down 1,365
  • Total KC wheat 157,242 open, down 1,421

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Wednesday with their Malaysia Jan 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA December crush report comes out on Wednesday at 11 am CST
  • China’s Lunar New Year starts Jan 30th