News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world.

–Anne Frank

 

USDA announced 125,700 tons of wheat sold to Venezuela ‘13/14 shipment

 

USDA announced 180,000 tons of corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment

 

USDA announced 216,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA US and global production, supply and demand, quarterly stocks , and US winter wheat acreage report comes out today at 11 am CST . See below for estimates.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 2 ½ at 1276 ½
  • CH down 2 at 410
  • WH down 1 ¾ at 582 ½
  • KC WH up 1 at 640
  • MWH up 2 ¼ at 631 ½
  • SMH up 1.90 at 416.20
  • BOH down 8 at 3788
  • RRH up 4 at 1544 ½

 

Overnight volume  

  • SH 8,438
  • CH 13,334
  • WH 5,655
  • KC WH 1,434
  • MWH 757
  • SMH 5,055
  • BOH 8,520
  • RRH 3

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat 1-2 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-10 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar lower

 

Nikkei up .2%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index down .7%

 

China grain closings – beans up 40, corn up 2, meal down 6, palm oil up 40, bean oil up 28

 

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 60,000 tons US corn for April shipment

 

Taiwan bought 54,800 US wheat for Feb/March shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for May-June shipment

 

Indonesia Feed Mill Association estimated 2014 corn imports at 3.6 MMT

 

Indonesia Feed Mill Association estimated 2013 corn imports at 3.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.8 MMT

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s December palm oil imports estimated at 800,000 tons up 4.4% from a year ago

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s December veg oil imports estimated at 1.0 MMT up 11% from a year ago

 

Fund rebalancing continues. Ends Tuesday Jan 14th

 

More CONAB Brazilian crop estimates from yesterday

  • ‘13/14 bean crop at 90.33 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.03 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.47 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.36 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat imports at 6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.7 MMT
  • ‘13/14 total corn crop at 78.97 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.78 MMT
  • ’13.14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 bean domestic use at 40.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 cotton crop estimated at 1.63 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.6 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,273,426 open, up 16,749
  • Total beans 580,221 open, up 5,570
  • Total meal 258,904 open, up 804
  • Total bean oil 347,991 open, down 318
  • Total wheat 417,744 open, down 1,391
  • Total KC wheat 158,722 open, up 1,069

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report. USDA report comes out at 11 am CST

 

Final ‘13/14 US corn and bean estimates

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.066 BB, range of estimates are 13.897 – 14.255 BB. November USDA estimate was 13.989 BB and 2012 final crop was 10.780 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 161.2 BPA, range of estimates are 159.8 – 163.3 BPA. November USDA estimate was 160.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 87.174 MA, range of estimates are 86.927-87.612 MA. November USDA estimate was 87.232 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.375 MA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.279 BB, range of estimates are 3.24 – 3.33 BB. November USDA estimate was 3.258 BB and 2012 final crop was 3.034 BB .
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 43.3 BPA, range of estimates are 42.7-44.0 BPA. November USDA estimate was 43.0 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.8 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.749 MA , range of estimates are 75.5 – 76.376 MA . November USDA estimate was 75.688 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.164 MA

 

US 2014 winter wheat acreage estimates

  • Total winter wheat acreage (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 43.501 MA , range of estimates are 42.5 -44.593 MA. 2013 total winter wheat acreage was 43.090 MA
  • Hard red winter wheat acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 30.426 MA, range of estimates are 29.4-31.9 MA . 2013 hard red winter wheat acreage was 29.571 MA
  • Soft red winter acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 9.539 MA, range of estimates are 8.25-10.4 MA. 2013 soft red winter wheat acreage was 10.019 MA
  • White winter wheat acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.533 MA, range of estimates are 3.370 – 3.746 MA. 2013 white winter wheat acreage was 3.5 MA.

 

US quarterly grain and oilseed stocks as of Dec 1st 2013 estimates.

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.4 BB, range of estimates are 1.305-1.768 BB. September 1, 2013 wheat stocks were 1.855 BB and Dec 1, 2012 wheat stocks were 1.671 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.79 BB, range of estimates are 10.025 – 11.250 BB . September 1st, 2013 corn stocks were .824 BB and Dec 1, 2012 corn stocks were 8.033 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.161 BB, range of estimates are 2.027 – 2.266 BB. September 1st, 2013 bean stocks were .141 BB and December 1, 2012 bean stocks were 1.966 BB

 

US ‘13/14 grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .557 BB, range of estimates are .460-.586 BB. USDA December estimate was .575 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.861 BB, range of estimates are 1.654 – 2.054 BB. USDA December estimate was 1.792 BB .
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .149 BB, range of estimates are .118 – .180 BB. USDA December estimate was .150 BB

 

‘13/14 South American crop estimates

  • Argentina corn production (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.192 MMT, range of estimates are 24.0-26.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 26.0 MMT
  • Argentina bean production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.221 MMT, range of estimates are 54.0-57.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 54.5 MMT
  • Brazil corn production (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 69.958 MMT, range of estimates are 67.35-71.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazil bean production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 89.064 MMT, range of estimates are 88.0 – 90.0 MMT. USDA December estimate was 88.0 MMT

 

Global ‘13/14 grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 182.57 MMT , range of estimates are 181.0 – 184.20 MMT. USDA December estimate was 182.78 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 163.20 MMT, range of estimates are 160.0-165.15 MMT. USDA December estimate was 162.46 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.53 MMT, range of estimates are 70.96 – 72.50 MMT. USDA December estimate was 70.62 MMT

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is Tuesday Jan 14th
  • NOPA December crush report comes out on Wednesday at 11 am CST
  • China’s Lunar New Year starts Jan 30th