News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Laws change depending on who’s making them, but justice is justice.”

– Odo

 

USDA announced 110,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘14/15 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 4 ¼ at 1273 ½
  • CH down 2 ¼ at 414 ¾
  • WH unchanged at 588 ¾
  • KC WH up 2 at 639
  • MWH up 3 ¼ at 630 ¼
  • SMH up .2.60 at 415.10
  • BOH up 3 at 3771
  • RRH down 6 at 1548.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 12,673
  • CH 15,345
  • WH 5,750
  • KC WH 1,006
  • MWH 893
  • SMH 5,015
  • BOH 6,391
  • RRH 26

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat  steady higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 5-7 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar higher

 

Nikkei down 1.5%

Hang Seng down .9%

Shanghai Index down .8%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 15K to 330K expecting 335K

 

ECB leaves interest rates unchanged at .25%

 

China grain closings – beans up 10, corn unchanged, meal up 30, palm oil down 18, bean oil up 28

 

Palm oil down 6

 

India Food Minister raised import taxes on refined edible oils to 10% from 7.5%. They left crude edible oil import tax unchanged at 2.5%

 

Egypt Meditrade bought 22,000 sunflower oil and 6,000 bean oil for Feb/March shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 30,000 South American origin beans for May shipment

 

TALK Brazil bought US HRW wheat this week

 

Jordan canceled tender for 10,000 tons of milling wheat

 

CWG said 5% of the US SRW wheat crop could have frost damage

 

Yesterday Monsanto Co. (world’s largest seed company) reported an increase in soybean seed sales and a drop in corn seed sales in its quarterly earnings report.

 

Brazil Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 95+ MMT

 

FC Stone estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 90.2 MMT (record ) vs. previous estimate of 89.3 MMT

 

FC Stone estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean exports at 46.2 MMT

 

FC Stone estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean domestic use at 40.0 MMT

 

FC Stone estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian total corn crop at 72.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 71.8 MMT and down 10% from a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 sunflower area at 5.2 MH vs. 5.5 MH a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 sunflower production at 10.3 MMT vs. 10.4 MMT a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 winter rapeseed area at 946,000 hectares vs. 949,000 hectares a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 rapeseed production at 2.2 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 bean area at 1.6 MH vs. 1.4 MH a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 bean production at 3.1 MMT vs. 2.6 MMT a year ago

 

India’s 2014 rapeseed production estimated at 6.4 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

Spain Ag Min estimated 2013 wheat crop at 6.7 MMT vs. 4.7 MMT a year ago

 

Spain Ag Min estimated 2013 barley crop at 10.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.0 MMT and vs. 6.0 MMT a year ago

 

Spain Ag Min estimated 2013 corn crop at 4.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 4.2 MMT a year ago

 

Spain Ag Min estimated 2013 sunseed crop at 1.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 978,000 tons and vs. 619,000 tons a year ago

 

Favorable South American weather

 

Hearing Mato Grosso bean harvest is 2.5% complete and reports of better than expected yield

 

March wheat made a new contract low yesterday of 586 ¾ (overnight low was 587 ¾ last night)

 

March corn made a new contract low overnight of 414 ½ . – Yesterday on the corn modify CH traded 414.

 

November beans made a new contract low overnight of 1102

 

March bean 200 day moving average is 1274 ½

 

63 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Argo IL

 

Fund rebalancing continues through Tuesday Jan 14th.  Over the 5 days hearing

  • Corn – need to buy 70,000 – 125,000 contracts (18,000 – 20,000 per day)
  • Beans – need to buy 2,000 – 5,000 contracts
  • Wheat – need to buy 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
  • KC Wheat – need to buy 2,000 – 4,000 contracts
  • Meal – need to sell 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
  • Bean oil – need to buy 10,000 – 15,000 contracts

 

CONAB came out this morning with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates .

  • Bean crop estimated at 90.33 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.03 MMT
  • Corn crop estimated at 78.97 MMT vs. 78.8 previous estimate

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 1 with the date at 11/04/13
  • Bean oil 47 with the date at 12/30/13

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat ‘13/14 110,800 ‘14/15 184,000 (expecting 200-500K)
  • Corn ‘13/14 155,300 (expecting 200-700K)
  • Beans ‘13/14 155,500 ‘14/15 700 (expecting 450-950K)
  • Meal ‘13/14 62,800 (expecting 50-175K)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 33,600 (expecting 0-60K0

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 110,800 MT–a marketing-year low–for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 55 percent from the previous week and 76 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (62,200 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Italy (31,500 MT), Brazil (30,000 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (21,700 MT), and Mexico (11,400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (60,000 MT). Net sales of 184,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (160,000 MT) and China (24,000 MT). Exports of 436,500 MT were up 55 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (108,400 MT), Japan (98,800 MT), Taiwan (57,100 MT), Brazil (55,000 MT), and Italy (31,900 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 155,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 79 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (100,200 MT, including 63,900 MT switched from China and 35,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (70,700 MT), South Korea (55,000 MT, switched from China) and China (6,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (88,300 MT). Exports of 603,300 MT were down 29 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (160,200 MT), China (155,600 MT), Mexico (151,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (63,100 MT), and Colombia (36,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 155,500 MT–a marketing-year low–for 2013/2014 were down 84 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (387,900 MT, including 299,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 49,200 MT), the Netherlands (65,300 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,700 MT), Tunisia (30,000 MT), Indonesia (22,900 MT), and Japan (15,500 MT, including 14,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (394,800 MT), Singapore (8,900 MT), and Mexico (5,000 MT). Exports of 1,675,300 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,217,800 MT), Thailand (73,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (72,600 MT), the Netherlands (65,300 MT), and Mexico (51,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 62,800 MT–a marketing-year low–for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for Venezuela (35,700 MT), Syria (29,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Turkey (25,400 MT, including 14,000 MT switched from China and 10,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), Denmark (25,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Morocco (15,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (89,000 MT), China (14,000 MT), and Colombia (7,300 MT). Exports of 341,900 MT were up 46 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Denmark (49,000 MT), Egypt (41,200 MT), Venezuela (29,700 MT), Syria (29,600 MT), and Spain (28,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 33,600 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (35,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (9,000 MT, switched from India), Peru (5,200 MT), and Nicaragua (2,500 MT). Decreases were reported for India (20,000 MT). Exports of 3,500 MT were down 90 percent from the previous week and 87 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,700 MT), Canada (500 MT), and Panama (100 MT).

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

ICAP sold 4500 Z 370 puts/sold 667 CZ

RJO bot 1000 Z 400 puts

RJO sold 600 short dated H 450 straddles

Tenco bot 1000 H 420-390 put spreads

Newedge bot 1500 H 400 puts

 

Beans:

Rosenthal sold 900 H 1300 straddles/sold 207 SH

Rosenthal sold 400 X 1100 calls

Macquarie sold 700 H 1200-1190 put spreads

GFI bot 1000 K 1200 puts

Tenco bot 600 X 1100 puts/sold 600 N 1200 puts

Tenco bot 500 N 1240-1140 put spreads/sold 500 N 1320 calls

Man sold 600 K 1200 puts

ABN bot 600 H 1220 puts/bot 144 SH

ABN sold 400 K 1200-1100 put spreads

Newedge sold 500 K 1200-1100 put spreads

Bunge bot 600 H 1240-1160 put spreads

JPM bot 500 X 1060-1020 put spreads

 

Wheat:

JPM sold 500 N 650-550 put spreads

 

Oil:

Bunge sold 2000 K 40 calls

Rosenthal bot 1400 H 39 calls

Rosenthal bot 500 H  37 ½-36 put spreads

Rosenthal bot 200 H 37 ½ calls

RJO sold 300 N 39-38 put spreads

 

Meal:

Bache bot 250 K 400 puts

FI bot 150 V 350-400 call spreads

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 6,000
  • Beans sold 5,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 2,000

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 654,383 open, up 16,275
  • Total corn 1,256,465 open, up 32,873
  • SF 3,602 open, down 1,684
  • SH 269,454 open, up 2,109
  • Total bean s 573,123 open, up 4,059
  • SMF 1,648 open, down 336
  • SMH 141,915 open, down 575
  • Total meal 258,313 open, up 1,057
  • BOF 1,745 open, down 12
  • BOH 191,805 open, down 1,234
  • Total bean oil 348,309 open, up 2,140
  • WH 261,982 open, up 4,316
  • Total wheat 419,163 open, up 5,867
  • KC WH 88,817 open, up 400
  • Total KC wheat 157,735 open down 289

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report. USDA report comes out at 11 am CST

 

Final ‘13/14 US corn and bean estimates

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.066 BB, range of estimates are 13.897 – 14.255 BB. November USDA estimate was 13.989 BB and 2012 final crop was 10.780 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 161.2 BPA, range of estimates are 159.8 – 163.3 BPA. November USDA estimate was 160.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 87.174 MA, range of estimates are 86.927-87.612 MA. November USDA estimate was 87.232 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.375 MA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.279 BB, range of estimates are 3.24 – 3.33 BB. November USDA estimate was 3.258 BB and 2012 final crop was 3.034 BB .
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 43.3 BPA, range of estimates are 42.7-44.0 BPA. November USDA estimate was 43.0 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.8 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.749 MA , range of estimates are 75.5 – 76.376 MA . November USDA estimate was 75.688 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.164 MA

 

US 2014 winter wheat acreage estimates

  • Total winter wheat acreage (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 43.501 MA , range of estimates are 42.5 -44.593 MA. 2013 total winter wheat acreage was 43.090 MA
  • Hard red winter wheat acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 30.426 MA, range of estimates are 29.4-31.9 MA . 2013 hard red winter wheat acreage was 29.571 MA
  • Soft red winter acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 9.539 MA, range of estimates are 8.25-10.4 MA. 2013 soft red winter wheat acreage was 10.019 MA
  • White winter wheat acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.533 MA, range of estimates are 3.370 – 3.746 MA. 2013 white winter wheat acreage was 3.5 MA.

 

US quarterly grain and oilseed stocks as of Dec 1st 2013 estimates.

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.4 BB, range of estimates are 1.305-1.768 BB. September 1, 2013 wheat stocks were 1.855 BB and Dec 1, 2012 wheat stocks were 1.671 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.79 BB, range of estimates are 10.025 – 11.250 BB . September 1st, 2013 corn stocks were .824 BB and Dec 1, 2012 corn stocks were 8.033 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.161 BB, range of estimates are 2.027 – 2.266 BB. September 1st, 2013 bean stocks were .141 BB and December 1, 2012 bean stocks were 1.966 BB

 

US ‘13/14 grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .557 BB, range of estimates are .460-.586 BB. USDA December estimate was .575 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.861 BB, range of estimates are 1.654 – 2.054 BB. USDA December estimate was 1.792 BB .
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .149 BB, range of estimates are .118 – .180 BB. USDA December estimate was .150 BB

 

‘13/14 South American crop estimates

  • Argentina corn production (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.192 MMT, range of estimates are 24.0-26.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 26.0 MMT
  • Argentina bean production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.221 MMT, range of estimates are 54.0-57.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 54.5 MMT
  • Brazil corn production (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 69.958 MMT, range of estimates are 67.35-71.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazil bean production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 89.064 MMT, range of estimates are 88.0 – 90.0 MMT. USDA December estimate was 88.0 MMT

 

Global ‘13/14 grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 182.57 MMT , range of estimates are 181.0 – 184.20 MMT. USDA December estimate was 182.78 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 163.20 MMT, range of estimates are 160.0-165.15 MMT. USDA December estimate was 162.46 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.53 MMT, range of estimates are 70.96 – 72.50 MMT. USDA December estimate was 70.62 MMT

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 157 billion
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their December palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

o   Dec output estimated at 1.67 MMT vs. 1.86 MMT a month ago and vs. 1.78 MMT a year ago

o   Dec stocks estimated at 1.96 MMT vs. 1.98 MMT a month ago and vs. 2.63 MMT a year ago

o   Dec exports estimated at 1.48 MMT vs. 1.52 MMT a month ago and vs. 1.65 MMT a year ago

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Jan 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • December US unemployment report comes out tomorrow Jan 10 at 730 am CST
  • USDA annual US crop production, supply and demand, grain stocks, and winter wheat plantings report comes out tomorrow Jan 10 at 11 am CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is Tuesday Jan 14th
  • China’s Lunar New Year starts Jan 30th