News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

Wayne Gretzky

 

USDA announced 115,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Fund Rebalance begins today and runs for five days. . Hearing

  • Corn – need to buy 70,000 – 125,000 contracts
  • Beans – need to buy 2,000 – 5,000 contracts
  • Wheat – need to buy 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
  • KC Wheat – need to buy 2,000 – 4,000 contracts
  • Meal – need to sell 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
  • Bean oil – need to buy 10,000 – 15,000 contracts

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 5 ¼ at 1270 ¾
  • CH down a ¼ at 425 ¾
  • WH up 1 ½ at 604
  • KC WH up 2 ¾  at 648
  • MWH up 2 ¾ at 633 ½
  • SMH down .50 at 415.30
  • BOH down 32 at 3761
  • RRH down 3 at 1545

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 11,409
  • CH 9,906
  • WH 4,021
  • KC WH 675
  • MWH 530
  • SMH 5,020
  • BOH 9,876
  • RRH 34

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal steady to 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil  30-40 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Gold, silver, crude oil, and stock market lower. Dollar higher.

 

Nikkei up 1.9%

Hang Seng up 1.3%

Shanghai Index down .2%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 7.3 MMT expecting a draw of 900,000
  • Gas a build of 5.6 MMT expecting a build of 2.3 MMT
  • Distillates a build of 5.2 MMT expecting a build of 1.9 MMT

 

China grain closings – beans up 24, corn up 12, meal down 20, bean oil down 26, palm oil down 114

 

Palm oil down 13

 

Oman bought 40,000 tons of India wheat for Jan- Feb shipment

 

Iraq seeks 50K tons of wheat from US, Canada, or Australia.

 

JCI Intelligence estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn imports at 4.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.6 MMT and vs. 2.7 MMT in ‘12/13 and vs. USDA estimate of 7.0 MMT. JCI lowered their estimate due to unapproved GMO being found in US corn shipments.

 

Traders still expect China to cancel US bean cargoes

 

Hearing Asian corn importers are holding off buying corn , they are expecting to get rejected US corn from China at a discount.

 

Hearing – Brazilian mills are requesting 2.5 MMT of duty free wheat imports for March – September, from the Brazilian government.

 

“A U.S. Grains Council delegation traveled to China this week aiming to resolve a dispute over a genetically modified corn variety that has triggered Chinese rejection of numerous shipments. “ – Reuters

 

China relaxes GMO checks on US distiller grain imports -trade – Reuters

 

Concerns about winterkill in US and Canada continue

 

63 bean oil deliveries with the date at 12/30/13 – Customer JP Morgan issued 34

 

Moving averages

  • SH 200 day 1274 ½
  • CH 50 day 431 ½
  • SMH 50 day 411.80

 

Estimates for Friday’s USDA report. USDA report comes out at 11 am CST

 

Final ‘13/14 US corn and bean estimates

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.066 BB, range of estimates are 13.897 – 14.255 BB. November USDA estimate was 13.989 BB and 2012 final crop was 10.780 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 161.2 BPA, range of estimates are 159.8 – 163.3 BPA. November USDA estimate was 160.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 87.174 MA, range of estimates are 86.927-87.612 MA. November USDA estimate was 87.232 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.375 MA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.279 BB, range of estimates are 3.24 – 3.33 BB. November USDA estimate was 3.258 BB and 2012 final crop was 3.034 BB .
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 43.3 BPA, range of estimates are 42.7-44.0 BPA. November USDA estimate was 43.0 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.8 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.749 MA , range of estimates are 75.5 – 76.376 MA . November USDA estimate was 75.688 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.164 MA

 

US 2014 winter wheat acreage estimates

  • Total winter wheat acreage (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 43.501 MA , range of estimates are 42.5 -44.593 MA. 2013 total winter wheat acreage was 43.090 MA
  • Hard red winter wheat acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 30.426 MA, range of estimates are 29.4-31.9 MA . 2013 hard red winter wheat acreage was 29.571 MA
  • Soft red winter acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 9.539 MA, range of estimates are 8.25-10.4 MA. 2013 soft red winter wheat acreage was 10.019 MA
  • White winter wheat acreage (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.533 MA, range of estimates are 3.370 – 3.746 MA. 2013 white winter wheat acreage was 3.5 MA.

 

US quarterly grain and oilseed stocks as of Dec 1st 2013 estimates.

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.4 BB, range of estimates are 1.305-1.768 BB. September 1, 2013 wheat stocks were 1.855 BB and Dec 1, 2012 wheat stocks were 1.671 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.79 BB, range of estimates are 10.025 – 11.250 BB . September 1st, 2013 corn stocks were .824 BB and Dec 1, 2012 corn stocks were 8.033 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.161 BB, range of estimates are 2.027 – 2.266 BB. September 1st, 2013 bean stocks were .141 BB and December 1, 2012 bean stocks were 1.966 BB

 

US ‘13/14 grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .557 BB, range of estimates are .460-.586 BB. USDA December estimate was .575 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.861 BB, range of estimates are 1.654 – 2.054 BB. USDA December estimate was 1.792 BB .
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .149 BB, range of estimates are .118 – .180 BB. USDA December estimate was .150 BB

 

‘13/14 South American crop estimates

  • Argentina corn production (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.192 MMT, range of estimates are 24.0-26.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 26.0 MMT
  • Argentina bean production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.221 MMT, range of estimates are 54.0-57.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 54.5 MMT
  • Brazil corn production (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 69.958 MMT, range of estimates are 67.35-71.5 MMT. USDA December estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazil bean production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 89.064 MMT, range of estimates are 88.0 – 90.0 MMT. USDA December estimate was 88.0 MMT

 

Global ‘13/14 grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 182.57 MMT , range of estimates are 181.0 – 184.20 MMT. USDA December estimate was 182.78 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 163.20 MMT, range of estimates are 160.0-165.15 MMT. USDA December estimate was 162.46 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.53 MMT, range of estimates are 70.96 – 72.50 MMT. USDA December estimate was 70.62 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 638,042 open , down 4,096
  • Total corn 1,223,890 open, up 1,512
  • SF 5,236 open , down 1,249
  • SH 269,180 open , up 607
  • Total beans 571,015 open , up 6,653
  • SMF 1,984 open, down 1,169
  • SMH 142,530 open, down 1,068
  • Total meal 257,253 open , up 364
  • BOF 1,757 open, down 344
  • BOH 193,039 open, down 2,078
  • Total bean oil 346,169 open, up 1,761
  • WH 257,739 open, down 882
  • Total wheat 413,378 open, down 631
  • KC WH 88,513 open, down 29
  • Total KC wheat 158,148 open, up 623

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST expecting

o   Crude a draw of 600,000

o   Gas a build of 2.0 MB

o   Distillates a build of 1.5 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates . Previous estimates were

o   Bean crop 90.03 MMT

o   Bean planting area 29.5 MH

o   Bean exports 45.9 MMT

o   Bean domestic use 40.5 MMT

o   Total corn crop 78.8 MMT

o   Corn exports 18.0 MMT

o   Wheat crop 5.36 MMT

o   Wheat imports 6.7 MMT

o   Cotton crop 1.6 MMT

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Friday with their December palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

o   Dec output estimated at 1.67 MMT vs. 1.86 MMT a month ago and vs. 1.78 MMT a year ago

o   Dec stocks estimated at 1.96 MMT vs. 1.98 MMT a month ago and vs. 2.63 MMT a year ago

o   Dec exports estimated at 1.48 MMT vs. 1.52 MMT a month ago and vs. 1.65 MMT a year ago

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Friday with their Malaysian Jan 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • December US unemployment report comes out Friday Jan 10 at 730 am CST
  • USDA annual US crop production, supply and demand, grain stocks, and winter wheat plantings report comes out on Friday Jan 10 at 11 am CST. Last trading day for Jan futures is Tuesday Jan 14th