News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Coming together is a beginning, staying together is progress, and working together is success.

– Henry Ford

 

USDA announced 350,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 4 ¼ at 1272 ½
  • CH up a ¼ at 428
  • WH down 2 at 603 ¾
  • KC WH down 1 at 643
  • MWH down 1 at 629 ½
  • SMH up .60 at 414.40
  • BOH down 36 at 3776
  • RRH up 4 at 1567 ½

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 14,692
  • CH 6,926
  • WH 4,768
  • KC WH 508
  • MWH 196
  • SMH 5,489
  • BOH 6,937
  • RRH 78

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-2 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Crude, dollar , and stock market higher .

 

Nikkei down .3%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai Index up .2%

 

China grain closings – beans up 42, corn up 11, meal down 30, palm oil down 56, bean oil down 104

 

Palm oil down 43

 

Bangladesh retenders for 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Jan –Feb shipment

 

India Dec meal exports at 451,341 tons down 10.32%from a month ago

 

India ‘13/14 basmati rice exports estimated at 4.0 MMT (record)

 

64 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Argo IL

 

Rains in forecast for Argentina . Southwest Argentina needs more rain

 

Rains in Brazil through Saturday then dry the next 10 days

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 245 with the date at 12/30/13
  • Ethanol 64 with the date current
  • No meal
  • No beans

 

Moving averages

  • SH 200 day 1274 ½
  • CH 50 day 432
  • SMH 50 day 411.40

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Dec 28, 2013 – Jan 3, 2014 total crush volume at 1,473,200 tons down 9.87% from a week ago
  • For the week Dec 28, 2013 – Jan 3, 2014 total crush capacity utilization at 53.58% down 6.41% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume for ‘13/14 season so far (Oct 1 – Jan 3) at 18,992,588 tons up 22.04% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume for 2013 at 65,993,118 tons up 10.13% from a year ago
  • As of Jan 3rd total bean import stocks at 5.0994 MMT up 57,300 tons from a week ago and down 4.12% from a year ago
  • Estimated 2013 China bean imports at 62.86 MMT vs. 58.38 in 2012
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.39 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.4-5.5 MMT
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from yesterday afternoon. Large spec positions as of 12/31/13. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 103,814
  • KC wheat short 6,241
  • Corn short 163,779
  • Beans long 116,561
  • Meal long 29,740
  • Bean oil short 55,320

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday morning

  • Wheat 13.601 MB expecting 10-21 MB
  • Corn 19.318 MB expecting 21-30
  • Beans 56.446 MB expecting 38-50

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,222,635 open, down 417
  • SF 6,535 open, down 644
  • Total beans 563,561 open, down 539
  • SMF 3,153 open, down 1,041
  • Total meal 256,961 open, up 1,641
  • BOF 2,101 open, down 342
  • Total bean oil 344,432 open, up 2,088
  • Total wheat 413,955 open, up 1,672
  • Total KC wheat 157,559 open, up 432

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Fund rebalancing starts tomorrow and lasts for 5 days . Hearing
    • Corn – need to buy 70,000 – 125,000 contracts
    • Beans – need to buy 2,000 – 5,000 contracts
    • Wheat – need to buy 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
    • KC Wheat – need to buy 2,000 – 4,000 contracts
    • Meal – need to sell 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
    • Bean oil – need to buy 10,000 – 15,000 contracts
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Friday with their December palm oil data report
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Friday with their Malaysian Jan 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • December US unemployment report comes out Friday Jan 10 at 730 am CST
  • USDA annual US crop production, supply and demand, grain stocks, and winter wheat plantings report comes out on Friday Jan 10 at 11 am CST. – I will email estimates for the report later today.
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is Nov 14th