News From The Grain Floor

ood morning

 

We can’t help everyone, but everyone can help someone.
Ronald Reagan

 

USDA announced 110,600 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 160,000 tons of US wheat sold to unknown for ‘14/15 delivery 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 4 ¼ at 1275 ½
  • CH up 2 ½ at 426
  • WH up 5 ¾ at 611 ½
  • KWH up 7 at 649 ½
  • MWH up 4 ½ at 635
  • SMH up 3.60 at 410.70
  • BOH down 21 at 3839
  • RRH down 2.50 at 1557

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 8,837
  • CH  6,826
  • WH 7,266
  • KWH  1,298
  • MWH  245
  • SMH 3,392
  • BOH 6,778
  • RRH 37

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC Wheat 6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-4 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Gold, crude, dollar , and stock market higher. Silver lower

 

Nikkei down 2.35%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index down 1.8%

 

China grain closings – beans up 38, corn up 4, meal up 12, palm oil down 78, bean oil down 108

 

Palm oil down 34

 

Xinhua news agency reported that China has canceled 601,000 tons of US corn and US DDGs by the end of 2013. More rejections are expected

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 40,000 tons of sunflower oil for Feb shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 10K bean oil and 40K sunflower oil for Feb-March shipment

 

Oman seeks 40,000 tons of India wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Last week China bought South American bean cargoes for April – June shipment

 

The Andersons canceled 80 wheat receipts Friday afternoon out of Maumee OH

 

Bitter cold in US and Canada causing concerns of winterkill on winter wheat crops

 

Less than expected rains in southern Brazil over the weekend

 

Argentina dry over weekend rains in forecast for this week. Southern areas need more rains

 

Brazil rains in forecast northern areas need more rains

 

138 bean oil deliveries with the date at 12/30/13

 

March bean 200 day moving average is 1274 ½

 

March corn 50 day moving average is 432 ½

 

March meal 50 day moving average 411.10

 

March meal 100 day moving average is 408.10

 

Nov beans low overnight is 1125 (contract low)

 

On Friday new contract lows in March corn of 417

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop report from Friday

  • Bean planting is 87.2% complete vs. 83.3% a week ago and vs. 84.9% a year ago
  • Estimated bean area at 20.45 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 77% complete vs. 72.7% a week ago and vs. 82% a year ago
  • Corn area estimated at 3.3 MH
  • Sunflower yield estimated at 12.4 TPH vs. average of 14.2 TPH
  • Estimated ‘13/14 sunflower crop at 2.5 MMT vs. 3.3 MMT a year ago
  • Wheat harvest is 84.3% complete vs. 74.3% a week ago and vs. 89.4% from a year ago
  • Estimated wheat crop at 10.35 MMT ucnhanged from previous estimate

 

More Informa numbers from Friday

  • US 2013 Corn crop estimated at 14.2  BB vs. previous estimate of 14.2 BB
  • US 2013 Corn yield estimated at 161.6  BPA vs. previous estimate of 161.2 BPA
  • US 2013 Bean crop estimated at 3.33  BB vs. previous estimate of 3.298 BB
  • US 2013 Bean yield estimated at  44.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 43.3 BPA
  • 2013 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 67.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 70.15 MMT
  • China’s 2013 corn crop estimated at 217.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 216.0 MMT
  • Russia 2013 corn crop estimated at 11.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.0 MMT
  • Argentina’s 2013 bean crop estimated at 57.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 59.5 MMT
  • EU 28 2014 all wheat crop estimated 143.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 140.4 MMT
  • Morocco’s 2014 wheat crop estimated at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MMT
  • 2013 Argentine corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • 2013 Argentine wheat crop estimated at 9.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • 2013 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 88.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • India’s 2013 bean crop at 12.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.5 MMT

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,222,402 open, up 13,167
  • SF 7,179 open, down 2,989
  • Total beans 562,988 open , down 8,222
  • SMF 4,194 open, down 1,663
  • Total meal 255,400 open, down 4,158
  • BOF 2,492 open, down 442
  • Total bean oil 342,300 open, up 148
  • Total wheat 412,241 open, down 4,814
  • Total KC wheat 157,127 open, up 806

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Fund rebalancing starts on Wednesday and lasts for 5 days . Hearing
    • Corn – need to buy 70,000 – 125,000 contracts
    • Beans – need to buy 2,000 – 5,000 contracts
    • Wheat – need to buy 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
    • KC Wheat – need to buy 2,000 – 4,000 contracts
    • Meal – need to sell 3,000 – 5,000 contracts
    • Bean oil – need to buy 10,000 – 15,000 contracts
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Friday with their December palm oil data report
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Friday with their Malaysian Jan 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • December US unemployment report comes out Friday Jan 10 at 730 am CST
  • USDA annual US crop production, supply and demand, grain stocks, and winter wheat plantings report comes out on Friday Jan 10 at 11 am CST.
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is Nov 14th