News From The Grain Floor 12/30/14

Good morning.

 

“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.”

–          Mae West

 

USDA announced 157,500 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Today is position day for January futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery. Expectations for deliveries tonight are

  • Soybeans 0 – 25. There are 21 soybean receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • Soymeal 0 – 60. There are 58 soymeal receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • Bean oil 100-400. There are 3,508 bean oil receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon.

 

Open interest in January futures

  • Soybeans 40,552 open, down 19,572
  • Soymeal 12,162 open, down 9,356
  • Bean oil 9,637 open, down 5,352

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down a ¼ at 1048 ½
  • CH down 3 ¼ at 409 ½
  • WH down 5 ¾ at 609 ¾
  • KC WH down 5 at 642 ½
  • MWH down 4 ¼ at 633
  • SMH down .60 at 357.70
  • BOH down 10 at 3283
  • RRH down 1.50 at 1205.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 13,302
  • CH 6,362
  • WH 3,277
  • KC WH 396
  • MWH 239
  • SMH 3,047
  • BOH 6,164
  • RRH 143

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 4-6 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold and silver higher. Stock market, crude, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei down 1.57%

Hang Seng down 1.1%

Shanghai index down .1%

 

China grain closings – beans up 13, corn up 7, meal down 1, palm oil up 48, and bean oil up 40

 

Malaysian palm oil up 6

 

Chinese industry analysts- Weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week Dec 20 -26th total crush volume at 1,543,400 tons down 5.59% from a week ago
  • For the week Dec 20 -26th total crush capacity utilization at 51.53% down 3.05% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014 –Dec 26, 2014) crush volume at 17,840,000 tons up 5.89% from a week ago
  • As of Dec 26th total imported bean stocks at 4.3972 MMT vs. 4.3222 MMT a week ago and down 14.27% from a year ago
  • Estimated December bean imports at 7.595 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 6.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated February bean imports at 4.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.3 MMT

 

China to auction 2.0 MMT of wheat , 5.0 MMT of corn and 8.0 MMT of rice from state reserves January 6-8th.

 

COPA said for the week ending Dec 24th Canadian crushers crushed 144,058 tons of canola up 5.7% from a week ago

 

COPA said for the week ending Dec 24th Canadian crushers crushed 42,389 tons of beans down 8.8% from a week ago

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Beans = 1,424,383 tons expecting 1.6-1.9 million tons
  • Corn = 609,613 tons expecting 550,000 -750,000 tons
  • Wheat = 198,525 tons expecting 325,000 -475,000 tons

 

South American weather mostly favorable.

 

Floods in Malaysia, threatening to reduce palm oil output

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,224,257 open, down 2,993
  • Total beans 613,480 open, down 11,210
  • Total meal 344,860 open, down 7,520
  • Total bean oil 361,579 open, up 1,087
  • Total wheat 373,348 open, down 562
  • Total KC wheat 129,207 open, up 941

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China’s HSBC final mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek to estimate Malaysia’s December palm oil exports tomorrow.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude unchanged
    • Gas a build of 2.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 2.0 MB
  • US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at noon CST
  • See attachment for New Year holiday trading schedule
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • China expected to hold its first corn auction the first week of January , may offer up to 3.0 MMT of corn from government stocks.
  • Hearing Index Fund year end rebalance will have the Index Funds selling corn and wheat and buying energies- not hearing any numbers on rebalance yet. Fund rebalance takes place January 8th – 14th
  • Final 2014 US crop production, and grain stocks  USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE