News From The Grain Floor 12/23/14

Good morning. Happy Holidays.

 

“When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”

–          Humpty Dumpty

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 3 ¾ at 1042
  • CH down a ¼ at 411 ½
  • WH up 3 ¼ at 629
  • KC WH up 2 ½ at 660 ¼
  • MWH up 2 ¾ at 647 ¾
  • SMH down 1.50 at 355.70
  • BOH up 10 at 3227
  • RRH down 4.50 at 1234

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 7,509
  • CH 5,019
  • WH 4,579
  • KC WH 699
  • MWH 378
  • SMH 2,695
  • BOH 7,052
  • RRH 42

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn steady easier
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Gold lower. Stock market, dollar, silver, and stock market higher

 

Japan markets closed today for holiday.

 

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai Index down 3%

 

Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiisk halted oil exports on Monday due to storm, while loadings are not expected to resume before Friday, port sources said – Reuters

 

China grain closings – beans unchanged, corn down 9, meal down 19, palm oil down 4, and bean oil down 14

 

Malaysian palm oil up 37

 

Taiwan bought 78,320 tons of US wheat for Feb-March shipment

 

UN bought 18,500 tons of Indian origin sorghum for donation for East Africa

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week Dec 13-19th total crush volume at 1,634,800 tons down .61% from a week ago
  • For the week Dec 13-19th total crush capacity utilization at 54.58% down .34% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014 –Dec 19, 2014) crush volume at 16,296,600 tons up 7.21% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 –Dec 19) crush volume at 69,398,441 tons up 9.65% from a year ago
  • As of Dec 19th total import bean stocks at 4.3222 MMT vs. 4.4052 MMT a week ago and down 16.75% from a year ago
  • Estimated December bean imports at 7.595 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated January bean imports at 6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.0 MMT
  • Estimated February bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5-5.6 MMT

 

Hearing China’s bean needs are covered for January

 

Hearing China’s bean needs are 50% covered for February vs. 70% covered a year ago

 

The National People’s Congress of China said China to aim for a record high grain harvest in 2015. This would be China’s 11th consecutive record . They left the grain crop estimate unchanged at 550.0 MMT

 

China loaded another 159,092 tons of sorghum out of the Gulf last week –Reuters

 

Indian rapeseed futures hit 2 year high on tight supplies and concerns about production due to dry weather in top producing Rajasthan state.

 

Argentina November crush at 3.184 MMT, expecting 3.2 MMT and vs. 2.3 MMT a year ago

 

Georgia’s Association of Wheat and Cereal Product Producers said Russia wheat could be replaced by Kazakhstan wheat on the Georgian market.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 17.975 MMT of grain between July 1st –Dec 22nd up 2.25% from a year ago

 

Zambia National Farmers Union estimated this year’s wheat crop at a record 338,233 tons up 24% from a year ago

 

South American weather forecasts favorable

 

Weekly US export sales report has been delayed until Monday at 730 am CST.

 

No receipt changes from yesterday afternoon

 

Total receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat 165
  • Oats 98
  • Corn 1,017
  • Ethanol 0
  • DDGs 0
  • Beans 21
  • Bean oil  3,508
  • Meal 58
  • Rice 662
  • KC wheat 318

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 1037 ½
  • March corn 200 day 421
  • March bean oil 20 day 3233
  • March bean oil 50 day 3281
  • March meal 20 day 353.10
  • March meal 200 day 357.60

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,227,908 open, down 6,613
  • Total beans 662,087 open, down 6,127
  • Total meal 354,714 open, up 2,170
  • Total bean oil 352,233 open, down 1,362
  • Total wheat 371,199 open, up 698
  • Total KC wheat 129,388 open, down 314

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.9 MB
    • Gas a build of 700,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
  • US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at noon CST
  • Markets close at noon CST tomorrow
  • Markets closed on Thursday for Christmas
  •  See attachment for Christmas holiday trading schedule
  • China Dalian markets to start overnight trading on Friday December 26th, while CBOT is trading.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Dec 1-25th palm oil exports on Friday Dec 26th
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Jan options expire Friday at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Monday at 730 am CST
  • Position day for January futures is Tuesday December 30th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for January futures is Wednesday December 31st.
  • China expected to hold its first corn auction the first week of January , may offer up to 3.0 MMT of corn from government stocks.
  • Hearing Index Fund year end rebalance will have the Index Funds selling corn and wheat and buying energies
  • Final 2014 US crop production, and grain stocks  USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE