News From The Grain Floor 12/22/14

Good morning. Happy Holidays.

 

“I can calculate the movement of stars but not the madness of men.”

–          Sir Isaac Newton

 

USDA announced 166,600 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Egypt GASC bought 300,000 tons of wheat for Jan shipment . 240,000 tons from France and 60,000 tons from Russia

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 3 ½ at 1035
  • CH down a ½ at 410
  • WH up 3 ¼ at 635 ½
  • KC WH up 5 ¼ at 671 ¼
  • MWH up 4 ¾ at 653
  • SMH unchanged at 352.00
  • BOH up 12 at 3228
  • RRH down 1 at 1252

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 8,373
  • CH 10,942
  • WH 13,039
  • KC WH 1,590
  • MWH 393
  • SMH 4,987
  • BOH 10,119
  • RRH 67

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice steady to 2 lower

 

Dollar , crude, and silver lower. Stock market and gold higher.

 

Nikkei up .08%

Hang Seng up 1.3%

Shanghai Index up .6%

 

China grain closings – beans down 6, corn down 27, meal down 18, palm oil up 4, and bean oil up 44

 

Malaysian palm oil up 17.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-20th palm oil exports at 906,594 tons up 7.5% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-20th palm oil exports at 911,595 tons up 8.8% from a month ago

 

Russia plans to impose grain export duty as it restricts exports – Interfax reported

 

Pakistan bought 50,000 tons of US beans for Feb shipment

 

Algeria bought 100,000 tons of durum wheat optional origin possibly from Canada for Feb-March shipment

 

Hearing China bought at least 8 cargoes of soybeans last week for February shipment. 7 cargoes from Brazil and one optional origin cargo.

 

Hearing China bought 3-4 cargoes of sun oil last week

 

Morocco bought 15,000 tons of US bean oil for Jan shipment last week

 

South Korea halts US poultry imports due to bird flu in US

 

China officially approves imports of Bayer Cropscience GMO soybean variety after seven years of review

 

Syngenta says receives China’s import approval for MIR 162 corn imports

 

Port workers in Argentina grain hub end strike after one day

 

Russia’s federal statistics agency said Dec 1st grain stocks at 38.6 MMT up 13.1% from a year ago due to better harvest

 

COPA said for the week ending Dec 17th Canadian crushers crushed 136,336 tons of canola down 6% from a week ago

COPA said for the week ending Dec 17th Canadian crushers crushed 46,457 tons of beans up 29% from a week ago

 

South American weather favorable , some of the dry areas received good rains this weekend.

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – November imports

  • Wheat 43,278 tons down 95.53% from a year ago
  • Barley 136,927 tons up 40.98% from a year ago
  • Corn 259,090 tons down 67.54% from a year ago
  • Rice 228,681 tons up 26.66% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 6,026,441 tons down .14% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 505,681 tons, down 9.55% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 80,914 tons down 13.15% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 6,842 tons, down 72.5% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 10,052 tons, down 94.28% from a year ago
  • Meal 1,236 tons, up .24% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 476,493 tons, down 16.34% from a year ago

 

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – Jan – November imports

  • Wheat 2,923,814 tons down 42.87% from a year ago
  • Barley 4,630,356 tons up 116.49% from a year ago
  • Corn 1,990,841 tons down 18.54% from a year ago
  • Rice 2,234,981 tons up 9.76% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 62,872,160 tons up 12.32% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 4,599,255 tons up 45.74% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 777,826 tons down 45.89% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 262,438 tons up 119.68% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 1,094,519 tons up 2.47% from a year ago
  • Meal 18,112 tons up 17.46% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 4,712,917 tons down 11.51% from a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Argentina’s weekly crop progress report from Thursday

  • Bean planting is 75.1% complete vs. 66.8% a week ago and vs. 76.6% a year ago
  • Bean planting area estimated at 20.6 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 59.7% complete vs. 51.8% a week ago and vs. 65.2% a year ago
  • Corn planting area estimated at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Wheat harvest is 65.6% complete vs. 54.4% a week ago and vs. 53.8% a year ago
  • Wheat crop estimated at 11.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Informa 2015 US acreage estimates from Friday morning

  • Corn acres estimated at 88.01 MA vs. previous estimate of 88.3 MA and vs. USDA 2014 acreage of 90.9 MA
  • Bean acres estimated at 88.8 MA vs. previous estimate of 88.3 MA and vs. USDA 2014 acreage of 84.2 MA
  • All wheat acres estimated at 56.6 MA vs. previous estimate of 56.8 MA and vs. USDA 2014 acreage of 56.8 MA
  • Winter wheat acres estimated at 42.3 MA vs. previous estimate of 42.246 MA vs. USDA 2014 acreage of 42.4 MA
  • Cotton acres estimated at 9.4 MA unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA 2014 acreage of 11.0 MA

 

Argentine Ag Min –Farmer selling as of December 10th

  • ‘13/14 wheat crop 80.60% sold vs. 100% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 corn crop 91.64% sold vs. 84.33% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 bean crop 72.91% sold vs. 81.10% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 wheat crop 35.23% sold vs. 17.71% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn crop 16.19% sold vs. 6.40% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 bean crop 4.42% sold vs. 4.80% a year ago

 

Cordonnier estimates from last week

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 93.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 92.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 72.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop estimated at 21.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday afternoon. Large spec positions as of Dec 16th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 15,643
  • KC wheat short 976
  • Corn long 181,638
  • Beans short 607
  • Bean oil long 10,677
  • Meal long 34,389

 

No receipt changes from Friday afternoon

 

Total receipts registered as of Friday afternoon

  • Wheat 165
  • Oats 98
  • Corn 1,017
  • Ethanol 0
  • DDGs 0
  • Beans 21
  • Bean oil  3,508
  • Meal 58
  • Rice 662
  • KC wheat 318

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 1037
  • March bean 50 day 1025
  • March bean 100 day 1019 ½
  • March corn 20 day 396 ¼
  • March corn 200 day 421 ¼
  • March Minneapolis wheat 200 day 666 ½
  • March bean oil 20 day 3240
  • March bean oil 50 day 3284
  • March meal 20 day 352.50
  • March meal 200 day 357.70

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,234,359 open, up 8,836
  • Total beans 668,209 open, down 6,168
  • Total meal 352,651 open, down 1,155
  • Total bean oil 353,600 open, down 2,248
  • Total wheat 370,650 open, up 2,580
  • Total KC wheat 129,705 open, down 298

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s and US ethanol plant production report comes out on Wednesday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Wednesday at noon CST
  • Markets close at noon CST on Wednesday
  • Markets closed on Thursday for Christmas
  •  See attachment for Christmas holiday trading schedule
  • China Dalian markets to start overnight trading on Friday December 26th, while CBOT is trading.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Jan options expire Friday at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST
  • Hearing Index Fund year end rebalance will have the Index Funds selling corn and wheat and buying energies
  • Final 2014 US crop production, and grain stocks  USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE