News From The Grain Floor 12/16/14

Good morning.

 

If you want to view paradise, simply look around and view it. Anything you want to, do it; want to change the world… there’s nothing to it.

–          Willy Wonka

 

March beans, meal, and bean oil are top step (spot month) today.

 

Chinese trade delegation to sign framed contracts of soybean imports this afternoon. Market expecting them to sign contracts for 2-4 MMT of soybeans for ‘15/16 delivery.

 

No USDA announcements this morning.  

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 9 ¾ at 1029 ¾
  • CH down 2 ¾ at 405 ¾
  • WH up 6 ¾ at 625 ¾
  • KC WH up 5 at 652
  • MWH up 4 at 636 ½
  • SMF down 2.60 at 362.80
  • BOF down 48 at 3179
  • RRF down 15 at 1228

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 11,011
  • CH 22,660
  • WH 16,998
  • KC WH 1,520
  • MWH 562
  • SMF 4,082
  • BOF  10,437
  • RRF 160

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil  45-55 lower
  • Rice 10-15 lower

 

Gold higher. Crude, silver, stock market, and dollar lower .

 

Nikkei down 2.01%

Hang Seng down 1.6%

Shanghai Index up 2.3%

 

Flash December manufacturing PMIs

  • Eurozone at 50.8 expecting 50.5 and vs. Nov final of 50.1
  • German at 51.2 expecting 50.4 and vs. Nov final of 49.5
  • French at 47.9 expecting 48.6 and vs. Nov final of 48.4
  • China HSBC at 49.5 vs. November final 50.0

 

Today is the first day of the FOMC two day policy meeting.

 

Yesterday Russian Ruble at 15 year lows against the dollar

 

China grain closings = beans down 42, corn down 5, meal down 45, palm oil down 28, and bean oil down 74

 

Malaysian palm oil down 50

 

South Korea MFG seeks 280,000 tons of optional origin corn for April shipment

 

Japan seeks 130,359 tons of food wheat for March shipment. Breakdown

  • 21,320 tons of US western white wheat
  • 15,510 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 31,900 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 27,104 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 34,525 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Talk/reports continue that China may soon authorize imports of MIR 162 GMO corn as well as DDGS with MIR 162.  – No confirmation yet

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Dec 6-12th total crush volume at 1,644,900 tons up 2.22% from a week ago
  • For the week Dec 6-12th total crush capacity utilization at 54.92% up .95% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (October 1-Dec 12, 2014) crush volume at 14,661,800 tons up 8.69% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1-Dec 12, 2014) crush volume at 67,763,641 tons up 10.04% from a year ago
  • As of December 12 total imported bean stocks at 4.4052 MMT vs. 4.4171 MMT a week ago and down 16.99% from a year ago
  • Estimated December bean imports at 7.595 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated January bean imports at 7.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated February bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.5-5.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing China’s Feb soybean needs about 45-50% covered.

 

Oil World estimates

  • ‘14/15 global oilseed production estimated at 522.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 509.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 498.5 MMT . Including
    • Soybean production estimated at 312.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 309.1 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 285.0 MMT
    • Rapeseed production estimated at 68.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 68.3 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 69.9 MMT
    • Sunseed production estimated at 40.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 42.7 MMT in ‘13/14

 

AgRural said Brazil bean planting is 96% complete vs. 98% average

 

Talk/reports continue Russia may curb exports

 

Russia Ag Min said no government approval yet of plan to raise prices for intervention stocks

 

Russian Ag Min says aims to buy 3.5 MMT of grains for state stocks

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia is not planning extra measures to curb grain exports

 

Ukraine officials reporting more than 270,000 hectares of wheat has already failed to emerge

 

Ukraine officials estimating 2015 Ukraine wheat crop at 20.0 MMT down 13% from 2014

 

Huge US corn farmer selling noted yesterday.

Favorable South American crop weather continues

 

2 mini corn deliveries with the date at 12/11/14

 

36 KC wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of ADM Hutchinson Elevator J, KS

 

Total receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 165 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 1,017 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,630 receipts registered
  • Meal = 65 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 319 receipts registered

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 1035 ½
  • March bean 100 day 1022 ¼
  • March bean oil 20 day 3257
  • March bean oil 50 day 3294
  • March meal 20 day 351.90
  • March meal 50 day 341.50
  • March meal 200 day 357.80

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,216,912 open, up 5,910
  • Total soybeans 699,373 open, up 3,690
  • Total meal 352,353 open, up 1,258
  • Total bean oil 365,710 open, down 696
  • Total wheat 370,745 open, up 1,645
  • Total KC wheat 128,165 open, up 434

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.65 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.75 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 450,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.
  • China Dalian markets to start overnight trading on December 26th, while CBOT is trading.
  • Jan options expire Friday Dec 26th at 115 pm CST
  • Final 2014 US crop production USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE