News From The Grain Floor 12/16/14

Good morning.

 

What’s right is what’s left if you do everything else wrong.

–          Robin Williams

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 3 ¾ at 1035
  • CH up 3 ¼ at 409 ¼
  • WH  up 13 ½ at 636 ¾
  • KC WH up 12 ¼ at 667
  • MWH up 12 ¾ at 647
  • SMH up 1.90 at 350.40
  • BOH down 6 at 3193
  • RRH up 9 at 1241

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 25,819
  • CH 12,718
  • WH 17,542
  • KC WH 1,383
  • MWH 443
  • SMH 6,503
  • BOH 9,749
  • RRH 111

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 10-15 higher
  • KC wheat 10-15 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 10-15 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 7-10 higher

 

Crude lower. Gold, silver, stock market, and dollar higher.

 

Nikkei up .38%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index up 1.3%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude build of 1.9 MB expecting a draw of 2.4 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.8 MB expecting a build of 1.8 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 1.0 MB expecting a build of 340,000 barrels

 

Today is the second day of the two day FOMC policy meeting. Fed announcement today at 1 pm CST.

 

China grain closings = beans down 14, corn down 5, meal down 51, palm oil down 42, bean oil down 16

 

Malaysian palm oil up 6

 

CNGOIC said China bought as much as 900,000 tons of US distillers grains last week for Dec-March shipment

 

Chinese buyers signed nine contracts for a total of more than 1.0 MMT of US beans at a ceremony in Chicago yesterday. Market was expecting them to sign contracts for a total of 2-4 MMT of soybeans

 

China has bought at least 3-4 cargoes of sun oil over the past week

 

South Korea MFG bought 126,000 tons of optional origin corn for April shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 42,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 25,000 tons of optional origin barley for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Turkey seeks 26,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for Jan shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for March-April shipment

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. CONAB estimate of 95.8 MMT

 

Ongoing concerns that Russia may limit wheat exports.

 

South American weather remains favorable

 

3 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon .

  • One out of Louis Dreyfus Claypool Holdings – Claypool IN
  • Two out of Incobrasa Industries – Gilman IL

 

One KC wheat receipt was canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elevator J, KS

 

Total receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 165 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 1,017 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,630 receipts registered
  • Meal = 62 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 318 receipts registered

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 1035
  • March bean 50 day 1019 ½
  • March bean 100 day 1021 ¼
  • March meal 20 day 351.70
  • March meal 50 day 342.30
  • March meal 100 day 336.30
  • March meal 200 day 357.80

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

Corn:

RJO bot 2000 F 405 puts

Rand bot 1500 H 380 puts

Rand bot 2000 G 380 puts

RJO bot 1000 F 400 puts

ABN bot 1000 Z 400 puts/bot 340 CZ

Macquarie bot 450 H 400 puts/sold 450 U 400 puts/bot 189 CH/sold 162 CU

 

Beans:

Rosenthal bot 1440 H 1100 calls/sold 720 SH

Bunge bot 1000 N 980-920 put spreads

RJO bot 500 H 900 puts/sold 1000 K 800 puts

 

Wheat:

JPM sold 3000 H 620-640 call spreads

FI bot 1000 H 610-630 call spreads/sold 1000 H 700 calls

JPM bot 1000 N 600 puts/sold 1000 N 700 calls

New Edge bot 2000 H 585 puts/sold 2000 H 685 calls/sold 2000 F 620 calls

New Edge bot 1000 K 630-680 call spreads/sold 1000 K 570 puts

New Edge bot 500 KCF 650 calls/sold 500 KCH 630 puts

New Eedge bot 500 KCG 650 calls/sold 500 KCN 710 calls

 

Oil:

Rosenthal bot 2400 N 31 puts/bot 822 BON

 

Meal:

RJO bot 500 H 380 calls

Drax bot 375 Q 360 calls/sold 173 SMQ

Macquarie bot 300 F 365 puts/sold 300 Z 410 calls

RJO bot 200 H 360-400 call spreads

 

Crush quotes from yesterday

OPEN                     CLOSE

JAN           1.165-1.185         1.10-1.11

MCH         88.5-89.5              87-87.5

MAY         73-74.5                  72.5-73

JLY             67.5-69                  67-68

AUG         67.5-70                  65-68

SEP           81-90                      82-85

OCT          85-87                      83-87

DEC          77-80.5                  76-78.5

JAN6        73-78.5                  71-80

MCH6       70-85                     70-79

 

Crush and oil share players from yesterday

  • ADM sold 100 Jan crush at 1.16
  • Mann sold 40 March crush at 89
  • RJO bought 60 Jan crush at 1.125
  • RJO sold 210 Jan crush at 1.12
  • ABN bought July oil share 114 oil/76 soymeal at 32.05%

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat bought 5,000
  • Corn sold 4,000
  • Beans sold 8,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 4,000

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,224,410 open, up 8,032
  • Total soybeans 695,711 open, up 2,740
  • Total meal 355,165 open, up 3,172
  • Total bean oil 366,179 open, up 654
  • Total wheat 369,130 open, down 1,422
  • Total KC wheat 128,889 open, up 628

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.25 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.75 MB
    • Distillates a build of 150,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement today at 1 pm CST.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Informa comes out on Friday with their 2015 US acreage estimate updates
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Dec 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday Dec 22nd
  •  See attachment for Christmas holiday trading schedule
  • China Dalian markets to start overnight trading on December 26th, while CBOT is trading.
  • Jan options expire Friday Dec 26th at 115 pm CST
  • Final 2014 US crop production USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE