News From The Grain Floor 12/15/14

Good morning.

 

“Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away”

–          Antoine de Saint-Exupery

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Some market chatter this morning that tomorrow’s signing ceremony with the Chinese trade delegation may be cancelled/rescheduled. –Chinese trade delegation was supposed to sign framed contracts for US soybeans tomorrow

 

NOPA November crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Crush – average estimate 165.404 million bushels, range of estimates are 161.0 -176.0 MB vs. October crush of 157.960 MB and vs. Nov 2013 crush of 160.145 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.156 billion lbs., range of estimates are 1.050 -1.318 billion lbs. vs. 966.062 million lbs. in October and vs. Nov 2013 bean oil stocks of 1.486 billion lbs.
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In October 2014 meal exports were 707,934 tons and in November 2013 meal exports were 813,323 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 1 at 1046 ¼
  • CH  up 1 at 408 ½
  • WH unchanged at 606 ½
  • KC WH up 2 ¼ at 636 ½
  • MWH up 2 ½ at 623 ¼
  • SMF up 2.10 at 369.10
  • BOF down 15 at 3221
  • RRF down 1 at 1234

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 17,181
  • CH 30,206
  • WH 7,155
  • KC WH 664
  • MWH 235
  • SMF 3,253
  • BOF  8,101
  • RRF 141

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady to 2 lower
  • Corn steady to 2 higher
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice steady to 2 lower

 

Dollar, stock market and crude higher. Gold and silver lower

 

Nikkei down 1.57%

Hang Seng down 1.0%

Shanghai Index up .5%

 

China grain closings = beans down 10, corn up 1, meal up 4, palm oil down 12, and bean oil down 6

 

Malaysian palm oil down 3

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-15th palm oil exports at 618,134 tons up 2.1% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-15th palm oil exports at 615,805 tons up 2.93% from a month ago

 

Reports/talk on Friday China may still need to price some soybeans for January

 

Russian Ag Min said Russia doesn’t plan to restrict grain exports despite falling rouble- Reuters

 

Reports China is allowing more DDGs imports with MIR 162

 

China looking to replace up to 1.1 MMT of Ukrainian corn.

 

Russia Ag Min said as of Dec 12th Russia has harvested 110.8 MMT of grain on 43.9 MH (100% of total area) with an average yield of 2.52 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 95.8 MMT of grain on 42.2 MH with an average yield of 2.27 TPH

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia exported 18.961 MMT of grain between July 1- Dec 10 up 32.5% from a year ago

 

Vietnam customs data showed Vietnam exported 473,074 tons of rice in November down 21.4% from a month ago

 

Vietnam customs data showed Vietnam exported 6.1 MMT of rice between Jan-November down 2.3% from a month ago

 

Mostly favorable South American crop weather continues

 

FSA came out officially this morning. These are the same numbers that were leaked on Friday afternoon at about 1245 pm CST

  • US “prevented plantings” as of Dec 1st 2014
    • Corn = 1.606 MA vs. November report of 1.594 MA and vs. 3.614 MA in Dec 2013
    • Beans 841,000 acres vs. November report of 839,000 acres and vs. 1.702 MA in Dec 2013
    • Wheat 1.38 MA vs. vs. November report of 1.379 MA and vs. 2.013 MA in Dec 2013
    • Rice 235,000 acres vs. November report of 234,000 acres and vs. 429,000 acres in Dec 2013
  • US crop plantings –based on a survey of farms
    • Corn =  86.285 MA vs. November report of 85.842 MA and vs. 92.359 MA in Dec 2013
    • Beans = 81.626 MA vs. November report of 81.392 MA and vs. 75.277 MA in Dec 2013
    • Wheat = 53.521 MA vs. November report of 53.451 MA and vs. 53.775 MA in Dec 2013
  • Rice = 2.893 MA vs. November report of 2.888 MA and vs. 2.457 MA in Dec 2013

 

901 new corn receipts were registered Friday afternoon.

  • 132 out of ADM Ottawa N IL
  • 91 out of Cargill Ottawa IL
  • 216 out of CGB Utica IL
  • 22 out of Elburn Cooperative Inc. Morris IL
  • 220 out of Zen-Noh Grain Corporation Hennepin IL
  • 220 out of Zen-Noh Utica IL

 

65 new meal receipts registered Friday afternoon

  • 60 out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman IL
  • 5 out of Louis Dreyfus Claypool Holdings Claypool IN

 

19 KC wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. I and J KS

 

Total receipts registered as of Friday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 165 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 1,017 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,630 receipts registered
  • Meal = 65 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 355 receipts registered

 

 

Deliveries:

  • Bean oil 69 with the date current
  • Corn 951 with the date at 12/09/14
    • House ADM issued 132
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 91
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 951
  • KC wheat 1 with the date at 12/11/14
    • House ADM stopped 1
  • Wheat 1 with the date at 12/11/14
    • House ADM stopped 1
  • Minneapolis wheat 1 with the date current
    • Term house stopped 1
  • Soymeal 65 with the date current
    • House Term issued 5
    • House ADM stopped 62
  • Oats 2 with the date at 12/12/14

 

Moving averages

  • March corn 200 day 423 ¼
  • March wheat 200 day 615 ¾
  • Jan bean oil 20 day 3241
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3276
  • Jan bean oil 100 day 3329
  • Jan meal 20 day 365.90
  • Jan meal 200 day 360.90

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,216,408 open, up 1,452
  • Total soybeans 696,121 open, down 1,521
  • Total meal 350,861 open, down 2,213
  • Total bean oil 366,552 open, down 3,543
  • Total wheat 368,626 open, down 2,027
  • Total KC wheat 127,490 open, down 533

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • March beans, meal, bean oil, and rice futures go top step (spot month) on Tuesday.
  • FOMC two day policy meeting begins tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at
  • Fed announcement Wednesday at 1 pm CST.
  • Jan options expire Friday Dec 26th at 115 pm CST
  • Final 2014 US crop production USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE