News From The Grain Floor 12/12/14

Good morning.

 

“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

–          Leo Tolstoy

 

USDA announced 110,000 US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

 

Today is the last trading day for December futures. December futures expire at noon CST. Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Dec corn 1,610 open, down 3,839
  • Dec meal 95 open, down 455
  • Dec bean oil 54 open, down 78
  • Dec wheat 39 open, down 67
  • Dec KC wheat 38 open, down 22

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 6 at 1048 ¼
  • CH  up 7 ¼ at 405 ¾
  • WH  up 8 ¾ at 606 ¼
  • KC WH up 7 ¼ at 634 ¾
  • MWH up 8 at 623 ¼
  • SMF up 3.10 at 374.60
  • BOF down 10 at 3192
  • RRF up 24.5 at 1231.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 19,604
  • CH 45,784
  • WH 17,188
  • KC WH 1,036
  • MWH 707
  • SMF 5,150
  • BOF  36,143
  • RRF 252

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 6-8 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-9 higher
  • Meal  2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil  5-15 lower
  • Rice 10-20 higher

 

Dollar, stock market, crude oil, gold , and silver all lower this morning

 

Nikkei up .66%

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai Index up .4%

 

China grain closings = beans up 4, corn down 17, meal up 16, palm oil down 2, and bean oil up 6.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 24

 

China issues 2015 grain and cotton import quotas. Unchanged from 2014

  • Wheat quotas = 9.636 MMT
  • Corn quotas = 7.2 MMT
  • Rice quotas = 5.32 MMT
  • Cotton quotas = 894,000 tons

 

South Korea bought 60,000 tons of optional origin (possibly US) corn for Feb-March shipment

 

Ukraine may default on corn contracts for China.

  • May default on up to 20% of volume due to a shortage of volume caused by political turmoil – Reuters

 

Argentina Ag Min – As of December 3rd farmer selling

  • ‘13/14 wheat crop 80.13% sold vs. 100% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 corn crop 90.78% sold vs. 84.14% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 bean crop 71.94% sold vs. 80.39% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 wheat crop 32.09% sold vs. 15.71% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn crop 15.31% sold vs. 6.15% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 bean crop 4.23% sold vs. 4.43% a year ago

 

75 new corn receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Cargill Burns Harbor, IL

 

20 new bean oil receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

28 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 24 out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. I , KS
  • 4 out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. J, KS

 

Total receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 165 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 116 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,630 receipts registered
  • Meal = 0 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 374 receipts registered

 

 

Deliveries:

  • Bean oil 45 with the date current
  • Corn 75 with the date at 12/04
  • KC wheat 36 with the date current
  • Wheat 1 with the date at Nov 28

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Chinese trade delegation comes to US next week to sign framed contracts for US soybeans.
  • Solvent Extractors Association of India comes out next week with India’s November veg oil imports.
  • NOPA November crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
  • FSA updates US acreage data on Monday morning
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
    • Crush – average estimate 165.404 million bushels, range of estimates are 161.0 -176.0 MB vs. October crush of 157.960 MB and vs. Nov 2013 crush of 160.145 MB
    • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.156 billion lbs., range of estimates are 1.050 -1.318 billion lbs. vs. 966.062 million lbs. in October and vs. Nov 2013 bean oil stocks of 1.486 billion lbs.
    • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In October 2014 meal exports were 707,934 tons and in November 2013 meal exports were 813,323 tons
  • March beans, meal, bean oil, and rice futures go top step (spot month) on Tuesday.
  • Final 2014 US crop production USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE