News From The Grain Floor 12/11/14

Good morning.

 

A pint cannot hold a quart, Mr. Pizer. If it holds the pint is doing the best it can.

–          V.I.N.CENT

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for January shipment.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 3 at 1029
  • CH unchanged at 393 ¾
  • WH down 6 at 575 ¾
  • KC WH down 5 ½ at 612
  • MWH down 5 ¼ at 599 ½
  • SMF down 1.10 at 368.00
  • BOF up 8 at 3183
  • RRF unchanged at 1226

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 19,741
  • CH 10,686
  • WH 6,888
  • KC WH 673
  • MWH 383
  • SMF 3,910
  • BOF 8,207
  • RRF 102

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and crude oil lower

 

Nikkei down .89%

Hang Seng down .9%

Shanghai Index down .5%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -3K to 294K expecting 300K

 

China grain closings = beans down 7, corn down 11, meal up 2, palm oil down 6, and bean oil down 76.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 20

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports at 395,929 tons up .2% from a month ago

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week of Nov 29-Dec 5th total crush volume at 1,609,100 tons up 9.61% from a week ago
  • For the week of Nov 29-Dec 5th total crush capacity utilization at 53.97% up 4.73% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1st – Dec 5th) crush volume at 13,016,900 tons up 9.86% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1st – Dec 5th) crush volume at 66,118,741 tons up 10.54% from a year ago
  • As of December 5th total imported bean stocks at 4.4171 MMT vs. 4.5751 MMT a week ago and down 3.45% from a year ago
  • Estimated December bean imports at 7.595 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.3 MMT
  • Estimated January bean imports at 7.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated February bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.5-5.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MMT

 

Hearing China has bought Argentine and Brazilian bean cargoes over the past two days for April/May shipment

 

Hearing China’s January bean import needs are 80% covered and 40-50% covered for February

 

Analysts are estimating Brazilian February bean exports at 3.0 MMT vs. 4.3 MMT a year ago

 

Japan bought 143,317 tons of food wheat for Jan/Feb shipment. Breakdown

  • 48,852 tons of US western white wheat
  • 17,370 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 24,795 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 26,380 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 25,920 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Greece bought 5,000 tons of Ukraine wheat for Jan shipment

 

South Korea seeks 180,000 tons of non GMO soybeans for 2016 shipment

 

Japan received no offers for SBS tender for 120,000 wheat and 200,000 barley .

 

Japan issues new SBS tender for 120,000 wheat and 200,000 barley for March shipment

 

FAO estimated 2014 global world cereal production at 2.532 billion tons (record) up .3% from 2013

 

Bunge sees no sign Russia will limit wheat exports

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers have sold 34.1% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 48.8% a year ago

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 55.0 MMT (first estimate for the season) vs. ‘13/14 crop of 55.6 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 21.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 12.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Dec 10th Ukraine has harvested 64.1 MMT of grain on 14.6 MH (99% of total area) with an average yield of 4.38 TPH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 16.484 MMT of grain between July 1st – Dec 10th up 7.4% from a year ago .

 

IFAX said Russia could harvest more than 104.0 MMT of grain this year

 

South American weather forecasts remain favorable

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They have been rolling long Jan bean, meal, and bean oil positions into March.

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 442,300 ‘15/16 84,200 (expecting 250 -450,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 962,800 (expecting 800,000 – 1.0 million tons)
  • Beans = ‘14/15 810,300 (expecting 700,000 -1.0 million tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 88,900 ‘15/16 -200 (expecting 50 -200,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 14,700 (expecting 15 -30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 442,300 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 39 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Japan (122,400 MT), the Philippines (64,600 MT), Italy (62,700 MT), Colombia (55,100 MT), Mexico (50,600 MT), and South Korea (30,200 MT).  Decreases were reported for South Africa (19,000 MT) and unknown destinations (6,500 MT).  Net sales of 84,200 MT for 2015/2016 were for Guatemala (43,600, MT), unknown destinations (40,000 MT), and Colombia (600 MT).  Exports of 330,900 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (58,600 MT), Japan (56,400 MT), South Korea (50,300 MT), Nigeria (49,100 MT), Algeria (38,900 MT), Italy (26,200 MT), and the Philippines (26,200 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 962,800 MT for 2014/2015 were down 18 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for Japan (595,600 MT, including 199,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (244,400 MT), South Korea (122,100 MT, including 62,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (83,900 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (70,300 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,400 MT), and Saudi Arabia (36,300 MT, including 33,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (244,000 MT) and Nicaragua (1,200 MT).  Exports of 678,300 MT were primarily to Japan (246,400 MT), Peru (103,900 MT), Mexico (95,000 MT), Colombia (77,000 MT), Costa Rica (38,400 MT), and Saudi Arabia (36,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 810,300 MT for 2014/2015 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Spain (257,000 MT, including 58,400 MT switched from China), China (217,200 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 87,700 MT), Japan (74,700 MT, including 56,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), the United Kingdom (63,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (60,300 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (60,000 MT), and Mexico (52,300 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (77,800 MT), the Netherlands (9,500 MT), and Costa Rica (1,200 MT).  Exports of 2,412,200 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (1,548,300 MT), Spain (127,000 MT), Taiwan (120,300 MT), Turkey (112,200 MT), Mexico (105,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (71,500 MT), Japan (63,700 MT), and the United Kingdom (63,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 88,900 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for Spain (43,400 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Saudi Arabia (30,800 MT, including 28,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (30,000 MT), Mexico (24,400 MT), Colombia (22,300 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), and Canada (9,600 MT).   Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (82,500 MT), Indonesia (19,000 MT), Vietnam (1,000 MT), and Turkey (600 MT).  Net sales reductions of 200 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Canada.  Exports of 307,100 MT were up 48 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Venezuela (50,000 MT), the Philippines (47,500 MT), Mexico (45,700 MT), Spain (43,400 MT), and Saudi Arabia (30,800 MT).  
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 14,700 MT for 2014/2015 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for Mexico (5,200 MT), Peru (5,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,200 MT), and Canada (300 MT).  Decreases were reported for Morocco (300 MT).  Exports of 53,500 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.   The primary destinations were Morocco (14,700 MT), Colombia (11,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (11,000 MT), and Nicaragua (9,400 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • Jan beans 20 day 1028 ¼
  • March corn 20 day 388 ½
  • March wheat 20 day 572
  • March KC wheat 20 day 620 ½
  • March KC wheat 100 day 613 ½
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 605 ¼
  • March Minneapolis wheat 100 day 601 ¼
  • Jan bean oil 20 day 3240
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3278
  • Jan meal 20 day 366.20
  • Jan meal 200 day 360.80

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 37 with the date at 12/01/14
  • KC wheat 19 with the date at 12/04/14
    • House ADM stopped 19
    • No corn
    • No meal
    • No Minneapolis wheat
    • No Chicago wheat

 

21 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. I and J KS.

 

Total receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat = 165 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 41 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,610 receipts registered
  • Meal = 0 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 402 receipts registered

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Dec corn 5,449 open, down 3,517
  • Total corn 1,204,776 open, down 4,461
  • Total beans 692,067 open, down 1,333
  • Dec meal 549 open, down 504
  • Total meal 349,417 open, down 2,646
  • Dec bean oil 132 open, down 218
  • Total bean oil 369,555 open, down 3,443
  • Dec wheat 106 open, down 81
  • Total wheat 372,635 open, down 1,213
  • Dec KC wheat 60 open, down 37
  • Total KC wheat 129,334 open, down 1,826

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting -43 BCF.
  • December futures expire tomorrow at noon CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • FSA updates US acreage data on Monday morning
  • NOPA November crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST
  • March beans, meal, bean oil, and rice futures go top step (spot month) on Tuesday.
  • Final 2014 US crop production USDA report comes out on Monday January 12th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE