News From The Grain Floor 12/08/14

Good morning.

 

“Life is like an ice-cream cone, you have to lick it one day at a time.”

–          Charles Schulz

 

USDA announced 136,000 tons of corn to Japan for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 130,000 tons of beans to Spain for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 4 ¾ at 1031 ¼
  • CH up 1 ¼ at 396 ¼
  • WH down 3 ½ at 590 ½
  • KC WH down 4 at 635 ¼
  • MWH down 3 at 620
  • SMF down 1.00 at 365.40
  • BOF down 16 at 3192
  • RRF up .50 at 1208

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 17,112
  • CH 12,373
  • WH 4,213
  • KC WH 553
  • MWH  122
  • SMF 2,614
  • BOF 9,513
  • RRF 62

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Gold and silver higher. Stock market, dollar, and crude oil higher

 

Nikkei up .08%

Hang Seng up .2%

Shanghai Index up 2.8%

 

China’s November trade data report came out on Sunday night

  • China’s November exports +4.7% on year expecting +8.2%
  • China’s November imports -6.7% on year expecting +3.9%
  • China’s November trade balance $+54.5 billion expecting $+43.5 billion

 

China grain closings = beans up 9, corn up 14, meal up 49, palm oil up 22, and bean oil up 60

 

Malaysian palm oil down 1

 

Argentina is on holiday today.

 

Hearing China bought US beans off the Gulf on Friday for February shipment

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 6.03 MMT of beans in November up 47.1% from a month ago and unchanged from a year ago

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 62.87 MMT of beans between Jan-November up 12.3% from a year ago

 

Analysts estimated China’s December bean imports at 7.5 MMT

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 400,000 tons of  veg oils in November up 5.3% from a month ago

 

China meal prices at a 2-3 year low.

 

South Korea NOFI bought 68,000 tons of optional origin corn last week for April shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 60,000 tons of US or South American origin corn for April shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of hard milling wheat optional origin

 

Philippines seeks 600,000 tons of rice to boost stocks after Typhoon Hagupit damaged crops

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2015 EU rapeseed crop at 21.6 MMT down 10% from 2014

 

India’s Soybean Processors Association said India exported 237,000 tons of soymeal between April-November vs. 1.59 MMT a year ago

 

India’s Soybean Processors Association said India exported 110,807 tons of soymeal in November vs. 519,125 tons a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Brazil bean planting is 92% complete vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 95% average

  • Mato Grosso bean planting is complete

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Brazil corn planting is 95.9% complete vs. 99.1% a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 15.85 MMT of grain between July 1-Dec 2nd up 10% from a year ago

 

Russian Ag Min said Russia exported 18.27 MMT of grain between July 1-Dec 3rd up 31.9% from a year ago

 

Sudan’s Ag Min said Sudan’s ‘14/15 cereal output to rise 30% from ‘13/14

 

Serbia to sell 30,000 tons of wheat from reserves

 

Favorable South American weather forecast.

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long Jan beans, meal, and bean oil positions into March. Roll ends on Thursday.

 

Jan meal 200 day moving average is 360.60

 

Jan bean oil 50 day moving average is 3284

 

US Census export data for Oct from Friday morning:

1)      Bean exports 335 million bu vs 77.5 million bu Sep and 275.5 million bu LY

2)      Corn exports 144.3 million bu versus 159.7 million bu Sep and 56.4 million bu LY

3)      Wheat exports 59.5 million bu versus 94.2 million bu Sep and 141.1 million bu LY

4)      Soymeal exports 897,445 tons versus 439,120 tons Sep and 902,347 tons LY

5)      Soyoil exports 159 million lbs versus 78 million lbs Sep and 275 million lbs LY

 

US Census import data for Oct from Friday morning:

1)      Rape oil imports 411 million lbs versus 292 million lbs Sep and 299 million lbs LY

2)      Rape oil imports Jan-Oct 3004 million lbs, up 29.6% LY

3)      Palm oil imports 253 million lbs versus 196 million lbs Sep and 226 million lbs LY

4)      Palm oil imports Jan-Oct 2216 million lbs, -12.3% LY

 

1 new wheat receipt was registered Friday afternoon out of Sunrise Co-op Clyde OH

 

41 ethanol receipts were canceled Friday afternoon – 33 out of Vitol Inc. Argo IL and 8 out of Aventine Renewable Energy LLC Pekin IL

 

20 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

2 KC wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. I KS

 

Total receipts registered

  • Wheat = 165 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 41 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,630 receipts registered
  • Meal = 0 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 577 receipts registered

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 244 with the date at 10/18/14
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 242
    • House ADM issued 214
    • Corn 1 with the date at 10/29/14
    • KC wheat 40 with the date at 12/04/14
      • House Tenco issued 16
      • House ADM stopped 40
      • Oats 5 with the date at 12/01/14
      • Wheat 1 with the date at 8/06/14
      • No meal
      • No Minneapolis wheat

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • December corn 16,325 open, down 1,918
  • Total corn 1,207,350 open, down 1,664
  • Total beans 685,391 open, down 4,799
  • December meal 2,751 open, down 768
  • Total meal 357,731 open, down 3,638
  • December bean oil 734 open, down 165
  • Total bean oil 374,562 open, up 742
  • December wheat 462 open, down 445
  • Total wheat 375,676 open, down 2,022
  • December KC wheat 154 open, down 166
  • Total KC wheat 135,670 open, down 1,734

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on Wednesday
  • Malaysian Palm oil Board comes out on Wednesday with their Malaysian November palm oil data report
  • CONAB comes out with Brazilian ‘14/15 crop estimate updates on Wednesday morning.
  • USDA December crop production report comes out on Wednesday at 11 am CST. Will send out estimates for report this morning.
  • Last trading day for December futures is Friday, futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA November crush report comes out Monday Dec 15th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE