News From The Grain Floor 12/04/14

Good morning.

 

You can either win ugly or lose pretty. You figure out where you want to be

–          Rick Berman

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 6 ¾ at 1005
  • CH up 2 at 384
  • WH down 6 ¼ at 583 ¼
  • KC WH down 7 at 632 ¾
  • MWH down 8 at 613 ¼
  • SMF up 4.20 at 358.00
  • BOF down 9 at 3185
  • RRF unchanged at 1214

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,430
  • CH 15,556
  • WH 14,509
  • KC WH 1,512
  • MWH 915
  • SMF 4,724
  • BOF 8,280
  • RRF 24

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 6-8 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-9 lower
  • Meal 4.00-5.00 higher
  • Bean oil 5-10 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Gold and silver higher. Stock market , dollar, and crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei up .94%

Hang Seng up 1.7%

Shanghai Index up 4.3%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -17K to 297,000 expecting 295,000

 

China grain closings = beans up 27, corn up 3, meal up 11, palm oil up 8, and bean oil up 78

 

Malaysian palm oil down 3

 

Stats Canada came out this morning with their Canadian 2014 crop production estimate updates.

  • All wheat at 29.28 MMT vs. average estimate of 27.8 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 27.4813 MMT and vs. 2013 all wheat crop of 37.5296 MMT
  • Durum wheat at 5.19 MMT vs. average estimate of 4.8 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 4.7559 MMT and vs. 2013 durum wheat crop of 6.5045 MMT
  • Canola at 15.56 MMT vs. average estimate of 14.6 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 14.0799 MMT and vs. 2013 canola crop of 17.9658 MMT
  • Oats at 2.91 MMT vs. average estimate of 2.7 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 2.6858 MMT and vs. 2013 oat crop of 3.9056 MMT
  • Barley at 7.12 MMT vs. average estimate of 7.2 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 7.1196 MMT and vs. 2013 barley crop of 10.2371 MMT
  • Peas at 3.45 MMT vs. average estimate of 3.5 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 3.5083 MMT and vs. 2013 pea crop of 3.9608 MMT
  • Flax at 847,000 tons vs. average estimate of .895 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of .9216 MMT and vs. 2013 flax crop of .7239 MMT
  • Corn at 11.487 MMT vs. average estimate 11.6 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 11.3969 MMT and vs. 2013 corn crop of 14.1938 MMT
  • Beans at 6.049 MMT vs. average estimate 5.9 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 5.9608 MMT and vs. 2013 bean crop of 5.3589 MMT

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat ‘14/15 319,200 ‘15/16 -6,000 (expecting 300-500,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘14/15 1.17 M tons (expecting 600-800,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘14/15 1.18 M tons (expecting 650-850,000 tons)
  • Meal ‘14/15 226,800 tons ‘15/16 400 tons (expecting -50 to +60,000 tons )
  • Bean oil ‘14/15 25,100 tons (expecting 10-30,000)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 319,200 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 26 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (223,100 MT, including 196,100 MT late reporting), Mexico (40,800 MT), Panama (38,700 MT), South Korea (31,400 MT), and the Philippines (28,200 MT). Decreases were reported for Brazil (66,000 MT), unknown destinations (37,200 MT), and the French West Indies (7,000 MT). Net sales reductions of 6,000 MT for 2015/2016 resulted as increases for Colombia (10,000, MT), were more than offset by decreases for Peru (16,000 MT). Exports of 449,600 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (258,800 MT, including 196,100 MT late reporting), Peru (45,100 MT), the Philippines (23,000 MT), Trinidad (20,700 MT), Panama (20,600 MT), Italy (20,300 MT), South Korea (17,400 MT), and Honduras (17,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,170,700 MT for 2014/2015 were up 24 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (304,400 MT), Japan (236,000 MT, including 44,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (131,300 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (122,700 MT), Costa Rica (109,600 MT), and unknown destinations (91,700 MT). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (21,500 MT), the French West Indies (4,500 MT), Taiwan (3,500 MT), and Haiti (3,000 MT). Exports of 746,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (182,800 MT), Peru (177,500 MT), Japan (92,700 MT), Egypt (66,000 MT), Guatemala (63,400 MT), and Colombia (58,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,179,700 MT for 2014/2015 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (767,800 MT, including 299,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 47,600 MT), Germany (157,000 MT), Taiwan (118,100 MT), the Netherlands (84,500 MT, including 81,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,400 MT), Japan (70,300 MT), and Spain (63,300 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Exports of 2,037,100 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,343,100 MT), Germany (157,000 MT), the Netherlands (84,500 MT), Mexico (81,900 MT), Vietnam (73,500 MT), Spain (63,300 MT), Indonesia (39,400 MT), and Taiwan (38,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 226,800 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for the Philippines (111,800 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (47,800 MT), Italy (40,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (20,000 MT), Colombia (13,600 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,500 MT), and Canada (13,400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (55,800 MT), Nicaragua (2,500 MT), the French West Indies (2,000 MT), and Haiti (1,500 MT). Net sales of 400 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Canada. Exports of 207,000 MT were down 50 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Vietnam (53,600 MT), Turkey (26,500 MT), Tunisia (20,000 MT), Guatemala (18,400 MT), and Mexico (15,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 25,100 MT for 2014/2015 were down 30 percent from the previous week, but up 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Morocco (15,000 MT), Mexico (4,300 MT), Guatemala (3,900 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,700 MT). Decreases were reported for Canada (100 MT). Exports of 55,500 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Colombia (27,000 MT), Peru (22,800 MT), and Mexico (5,200 MT).

 

There were 8 ethanol receipts registered yesterday afternoon.

 

Total receipts registered

  • Wheat = 214 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 41 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 8 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,670 receipts registered
  • Meal = 0 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 679 receipts registered

 

Deliveries

  • Corn = 40 with the date at 10/28/14
  • Bean oil = 188 with the date at 10/17/14
    • JP Morgan customer issued and stopped 188
  • Minneapolis wheat= 33 with the date at 10/09/14
  • KC wheat=188 with date at 12/02/14
    • House Tenco issued 22
    • House ADM stopped 2
  • Oats 98 with the date at 12/01/14
  • No Chicago wheat
  • No soymeal

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • December corn 21,191 open, down 2,849
  • Total corn 1,197,463 open, up 5,297
  • Total beans 683,518 open, up 7,767
  • December meal 4,243 open, down 1,484
  • Total meal 360,832 open, down 1,248
  • December bean oil 1,409 open, down 689
  • Total bean oil 375,051 open, down 4,167
  • December wheat 1,138 open, down 411
  • Total wheat 373,912 open, down 1,451
  • December KC wheat 395 open, down 581
  • Total KC wheat 137,913 open, down 1,532

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting -37 BCF
  • US November unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and runs for five days. They will be rolling long January bean, meal , and bean oil positions into March.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on December 10th
  • Malaysian Palm oil Board comes out on December 10th with their Malaysian November palm oil data report
  • CONAB comes out with Brazilian ‘14/15 crop estimate updates on Wednesday December 10th
  • USDA December crop production report comes out on Wednesday December 10th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE