News From The Grain Floor 12/03/14

Good morning.

 

When people agree with me I always feel that I must be wrong.

–          Oscar Wilde

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for January shipment.

 

USDA announced 196,000 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Hearing Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with 2015 acreage and world production estimates . I cannot confirm this yet.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 6 ¾ at 989
  • CH down 2 ¾ at 378 ½
  • WH down 13 at 590 ¼
  • KC WH down 12 ½ at 639 ¾
  • MWH down 12 ½ at 620
  • SMF down 5.60 at 352.30
  • BOF up 4 at 3132
  • RRF down 7.50 at 1211

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 23,802
  • CH 15,180
  • WH 16,272
  • KC WH 2,337
  • MWH 841
  • SMF 9,251
  • BOF 17,069
  • RRF 31

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 10-15 lower
  • KC wheat 10-15 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 10-15 lower
  • Meal 5.00-6.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Dollar and gold are higher. Crude, silver, and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei up .32%

Hang Seng down 1.0%

Shanghai Index up .6%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 6.5 MB expecting a build of 1.3 MB
  • Gas a draw of 35,000 barrels expecting a build of 1.0 MB
  • Distillates a build of 2.5 MB expecting a draw of 200,000 barrels

 

China grain closings = beans down 21, corn up 1, meal down 42, palm oil down 30 and bean oil down 64

 

Malaysian palm oil up 30

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 optional origin wheat for June-July shipment

 

Russian government bought 6,345 tons of intervention grain total since 9/30 at 268,495 tons bought government plans to buy 5.0 MMT of intervention grain.

 

No receipt registration changes yesterday afternoon. Total receipts registered

  • Wheat = 214 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 41 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,670 receipts registered
  • Meal = 0 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 679 receipts registered

 

Deliveries

  • Corn = 40 with the date at 8/26/14
  • Bean oil = 9 with the date at 10/17/14
  • Minneapolis wheat= 97 with the date at 10/09/04
  • KC wheat=600 with the date at 11/21/14
    • House Term issued 600
    • House Tenco stopped 46
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 241
  • No Chicago wheat
  • No soymeal
  • No oats

 

Moving averages

  • Jan beans 50 day 992 ¼
  • March corn 50 day 370 ¼
  • March corn 100 day 372 ½
  • Jan soymeal 50 day 342.00
  • Jan meal 100 day is 341.60

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • December corn 24,140 open, down 4,672
  • Total corn 1,192,933 open, down 1,129
  • Total beans 676,212 open, up 1,946
  • December meal 5,727 open, down 1,752
  • Total meal 362,351 open, up 39
  • December bean oil 2,098 open, down 722
  • Total bean oil 379,139 open, up 2,250
  • December wheat 1,554 open, down 550
  • Total wheat 375,260 open, up 450
  • December KC wheat 976 open , down 134
  • Total KC wheat 140,602 open , down 2,277

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.5 MB
    • Distillates a build of 550,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST with their Canadian 2014 crop production estimate updates. Based on a Reuters survey
    • All wheat average estimate is 27.8 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 27.4813 MMT and vs. 2013 all wheat crop of 37.5296 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate is 4.8 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 4.7559 MMT and vs. 2013 durum wheat crop of 6.5045 MMT
    • Canola average estimate is 14.6 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 14.0799 MMT and vs. 2013 canola crop of 17.9658 MMT
    • Oats average estimate is 2.7 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 2.6858 MMT and vs. 2013 oat crop of 3.9056 MMT
    • Barley average estimate is 7.2 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 7.1196 MMT and vs. 2013 barley crop of 10.2371 MMT
    • Peas average estimate 3.5 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 3.5083 MMT and vs. 2013 pea crop of 3.9608 MMT
    • Flax average estimate .895 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of .9216 MMT and vs. 2013 flax crop of .7239 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 11.6 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 11.3969 MMT and vs. 2013 corn crop of 14.1938 MMT
    • Beans average estimate 5.9 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 5.9608 MMT and vs. 2013 bean crop of 5.3589 MMT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • US November unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and runs for five days. They will be rolling long January bean, meal , and bean oil positions into March.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on December 10th
  • Malaysian Palm oil Board comes out on December 10th with their Malaysian November palm oil data report
  • CONAB comes out with Brazilian ‘14/15 crop estimate updates on Wednesday December 10th
  • USDA December crop production report comes out on Wednesday December 10th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE