News From The Grain Floor 12/02/14

Good morning.

 

When people get a little too chummy with me I like to call them by the wrong name to let them know I don’t really care about them.

–          Ron Swanson

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 1 at 1016
  • CH down 1 ¾ at 388
  • WH down 4 ¾ at 602 ¼
  • KC WH down 4 ½ at 659 ¾
  • MWH down 4 ½ at 633 ¼
  • SMF up .40 at 362.40
  • BOF down 11 at 3225
  • RRF down 3.50 at 1210.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 12,585
  • CH 14,515
  • WH 17,192
  • KC WH 2,013
  • MWH 1,030
  • SMF 3,715
  • BOF 9,637
  • RRF 83

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal steady to 1 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up .42%

Hang Seng up 1.2%

Shanghai Index up 3.1% = biggest daily increase since 2013

 

China grain closings = beans up 15, corn unchanged, meal up 24, palm oil down 72, and bean oil up 88

 

Malaysian palm oil unchanged

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly China crush breakdown:

  • For the week Nov 22-28th total crush volume at 1,467,900 tons up .37% from a week ago
  • For the week Nov 22-28th total crush capacity utilization at 49.24% up .19% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (October 1-November 28th , 2014) Chinese crush volume at 11,407,800 tons up 11.07% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 –November 28, 2014) crush volume at 64,509,641 tons up 10.54% from a year ago
  • As of November 28th total imported bean stocks at 4.5751 MMT vs. 4.6321 MMT a week ago and down 12.93% from a year ago
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.231 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated December bean imports at  7.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated January bean imports at 7.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.9 MMT
  • Estimated February bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Japan seeks 146,660 tons of food wheat for Jan-Feb shipment . Breakdown

  • 24,700 tons of US western white wheat
  • 33,145 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 62,735 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 26,080 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Brazilian bean planting is 85% complete vs. 88% a year ago and vs. 89% average

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Mato Grosso bean planting is 98% complete

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Parana bean planting is 96% complete

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 14.6 MMT vs. 17.72 MMT a year ago

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso’s ‘14/15 corn area at 2.83 MH vs. 3.22 MH a year ago

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 27.89 MMT vs. 26.29 MMT a year ago

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso’s ‘14/15 bean area at 8.87 MH vs. 8.44 MH a year ago

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia exported 17.682 MMT of grain between July 1st – November 26th up 22.8% from a year ago

 

Russia Ag Min said Russian’s wheat harvest is complete . Russian farmers harvested 62.3 MMT of wheat vs. 54.4 MMT a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 2.91 MMT of grain between July 1-Nov 30th vs. 3.64 MMT a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan farmers have harvested 99.1% of their grain crops.

 

ABARES – ‘14/15 Australian crop estimates

  • Wheat crop estimated at 23.22 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.23 MMT
  • Canola crop estimated at 3.32 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.39 MMT
  • Cotton crop estimated at 470,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 580,000 tons

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from yesterday afternoon. Large spec positions as of November 25th , futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 36,789
  • KC wheat short 10,684
  • Corn long 148,892
  • Beans short 2,918
  • Meal long 53,204
  • Bean oil long 31,412

 

No receipt registration changes yesterday afternoon. Total receipts registered

  • Wheat = 214 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 41 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,670 receipts registered
  • Meal = 0 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 679 receipts registered

 

Deliveries

  • Corn = 40 with the date at 7/30/14
  • Bean oil = 3 with the date at 10/17/14
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 1
  • Minneapolis wheat = 97 with the date at 9/2/14
  • No KC wheat
  • No Chicago wheat
  • No soymeal
  • No oats

 

Moving averages

  • Jan beans 100 day 1021 ¼
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3292
  • Jan soymeal 200 day 360.60

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • December corn 29,062 open, down 4,375
  • Total corn 1,195,594 open, up 227
  • Total beans 674,555 open, up 3,763
  • December meal 7,479 open, down 1,371
  • Total meal 362,676 open, down 3,069
  • December bean oil 2,820 open, down 1,984
  • Total bean oil 377,008 open, up 1,333
  • December wheat 2,104 open, down 1,059
  • Total wheat 375,112 open, up 2,534
  • December KC wheat 1,110 open, down 389
  • Total KC wheat 142,917 open, down 995

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • US November unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and runs for five days. They will be rolling long January bean, meal , and bean oil positions into March.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on December 10th
  • Malaysian Palm oil Board comes out on December 10th with their Malaysian November palm oil data report
  • CONAB comes out with Brazilian ‘14/15 crop estimate updates on Wednesday December 10th
  • USDA December crop production report comes out on Wednesday December 10th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE