News From The Grain Floor 12/01/14

Good morning.

 

“The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”

–          Ahmed Zaki Yamani

 

Today is the start of a new month.

 

USDA announced 126,000 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 1 ½ at 1017 ½
  • CH down 3 ¼ at 385 ½
  • WH unchanged at 578 ½
  • KC WH up 4 ¾ at 644 ¾
  • MWH up 1 ½ at 617 ¾
  • SMF up .10 at 366.40
  • BOF down 24 at 3205
  • RRF up 1.50 at 1235

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 21,332
  • CH 19,697
  • WH 12,122
  • KC WH 2,535
  • MWH 541
  • SMF 4,817
  • BOF 22,161
  • RRF 226

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat  1-3 higher
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Crude, gold, and silver higher. Dollar and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down .75%

Hang Seng down 2.6%

Shanghai Index down .1%

 

Moody downgraded Japan on Friday to A1 from Aa3.

 

November official manufacturing PMIs

  • China’s at 50.3 expecting 50.6 and vs. 50.8 in October
  • UK at 53.5 (highest since July) expecting 53.0 and vs. 53.3 in October
  • Euro zone at 50.1 (lowest since June 2013) expecting 50.4 and vs. 50.6 in October
  • Germany at 49.5 (17 month low) expecting 50.0 and vs. 51.4 in October

 

China grain closings = beans down 13, corn down 9, meal down 52, palm oil down 104, and bean oil down 222

 

Malaysian palm oil down 63. Biggest daily loss in 16 months

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s November palm oil exports at 1,310,509 tons down 10.5% from October

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s November palm oil exports at 1,324,124 tons down 9.8% from October.

 

CNgrain said China’s ‘14/15 corn ending stocks are likely to exceed 120.0 MMT and the stock to use ratio is expected to surpass 60% (record high)

 

AgRural said on Friday that Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop is 85% planted vs. 76% a week ago and vs. 89% a year ago

 

AgRural said on Friday Mato Grosso Brazil bean crop is 98% planted.

 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 94.9 MMT (record)

 

Morocco bought 171,600 tons of local soft wheat

 

UkrAgroConsult said more than a third of the Ukrainian winter barley crop is in poor condition , and just 18.3% of the crop is in good condition.

 

Russia’s USDA attaché estimated ‘14/15 grain crop at 102.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 101.0 MMT. Including

  • 58.0 MMT of wheat
  • 19.5 MMT of barley
  • 11.5 MMT of corn
  • Almost 13.0 MMT of other grains and pulses

 

Russia’s USDA attaché estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT. Including

  • 22.0 MMT of wheat
  • 4.3 MMT of barley
  • 2.5 MMT of corn
  • .5-.8 MMT of other grains and pulses

 

Russia’s Economy Minister said Russia plans to start delivering grain and industrial products to Iran in return for oil.

 

Argentina USDA attaché estimated ‘14/15 bean area at 21.0 MH vs. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimate of 20.6 MH

 

3 women in Egypt die of H5N1 bird flu virus.

 

Favorable South American weather continues

 

Concerns about cold weather/winterkill in Russia may limit grain exports.

 

No receipt registration changes on Friday. Total receipts registered

  • Wheat = 214 receipts registered
  • Oats = 98 receipts registered
  • Corn = 41 receipts registered
  • Ethanol = 0 receipts registered
  • DDGs = 0 receipts registered
  • Beans = 21 receipts registered
  • Bean oil = 3,670 receipts registered
  • Meal = 0 receipts registered
  • Rice = 662 receipts registered
  • KC wheat = 679 receipts registered

 

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll. They have been rolling long January beans, meal, and bean oil positions into March.

 

Deliveries

  • Corn = 40 with the date at 6/27/14
  • Bean oil = 87 with the date at 10/16/14
    • House FC Stone issued 3
    • Minneapolis wheat 2 with the date at 8/29/14
    • No KC wheat
    • No Chicago wheat
    • No soymeal
    • No oats

 

Jan beans touched 11 day low of 1006 ½ overnight.

 

Moving averages

  • Jan beans 100 day is 1022
  • Jan soymeal 200 day is 360.50

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • December corn 33,903 open, down 7,526
  • Total corn 1,197,127 open, down 3,418
  • Total beans 671,393 open, up 2,772
  • December meal 8,882 open, down 2,873
  • Total meal 365,899 open, down 3,215
  • December bean oil 4,804 open, down 2,181
  • Total bean oil 375,754 open, up 2,273
  • December wheat 3,213 open, down 2,172
  • Total wheat 372,988 open, up 8,603
  • December KC wheat 1,499 open, down 361
  • Total KC wheat 144,037 open, up 2,074

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST. Delayed due to US holiday last week.
  • Weekly US crop progress reports are finished for the season . Weekly reports will resume on April 6th 2015.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • US November unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and runs for five days. They will be rolling long January bean, meal , and bean oil positions into March.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE