News From The Grain Floor 11/28/14

Good morning.

 

Predictions are hard especially about the future

–          Niels Bohr

 

US grain markets close today at noon CST.

 

Today is month end.

 

Today is first notice day for December futures. Deliveries from Wednesday night were

  • Corn =  40 with the date at 2/7/14 (expecting 0-100)
  • KC wheat = 0  (expecting 0-200)
  • Minneapolis wheat = 123 with the date at 8/29/14  (expecting 0-100)
    • CHS House issued 123
    • Chicago wheat = 0   (expecting 0-500)
    • Bean oil =  844 with the date at 10/15/14  (expecting 200-300, some analysts were expecting as many as 1,500)
      • Customer JP Morgan stopped 188
      • House ADM issued 600
      • Soymeal =  0 (expecting 0)

 

USDA announced 109,736 tons of US corn sold to Costa Rica for ‘14/15 shipment

 

There was no overnight trade last night. Opening calls are lower due to crude oil being down over $4 and dollar is higher.

  • Beans – lower
  • Corn – lower
  • Wheat- lower
  • KC wheat- lower
  • Minneapolis wheat- lower
  • Meal – lower
  • Bean oil –  sharply lower
  • Rice – lower

 

Crude sharply lower. Stock market and dollar higher. Gold and silver lower

 

Nikkei up 1.23%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai index up 2.0%

 

OPEC did not to lower oil production. OPEC kept oil production unchanged at 30 million barrels per day.

 

China grain markets = beans up 29, corn up 4, meal up 24, palm oil down 62 and bean oil down 82

 

Malaysian palm oil down 21

 

100 wheat receipts canceled Wednesday afternoon out of Sunrise Coop Clyde OH. 214 receipts remain registered

 

37 bean receipts canceled Wednesday afternoon out of ADM Spring Valley IL

 

188 bean receipts canceled Wednesday afternoon out of ADM Lacon IL

 

21 bean receipts remain registered

 

18 bean oil receipts canceled Wednesday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA. 3,670 bean oil receipts remain registered

 

Argentina Ag Min – Argentine farmer selling as of 11/19/14

  • ‘13/14 wheat 79.19% sold vs. 100% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 corn 86.86% sold vs. 82.12% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 beans 70.2% sold vs. 78.38% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 wheat 24.32% sold vs. 12.63% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn 9.07% sold vs. 5.59% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 beans 2.84% sold vs. 3.81% a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange –Weekly Argentina crop progress report from Thursday.

  • Bean planting 44.8% complete vs. 30.4% a week ago and vs. 48.9% a year ago
  • Bean planting area estimated at 20.6 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting 41.4% complete vs. 40.2% a week ago and vs. 42.5% a year ago
  • Corn planting area estimated at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower planting 96.9% complete vs. 82% a week ago and unchanged from a year ago
  • Sunflower planting area estimated at 1.3 MH unchanged from previous
  • Wheat harvest 31% complete vs. 21.4% a week ago and vs. 19.7% a year ago
  • Wheat crop estimated at 11.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. Roll ends on Monday . They have been rolling long Jan bean , bean oil , and soymeal positions into March.

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 431,500 ‘15/16 65,000 (expecting 300-500,000)
  • Corn – ‘14/15 944,900 (expecting 600-800,000)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 1.49 million ‘15/16 2,000 (expecting 700,000-1.0 million)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 -22,300 tons ‘15/16 174,300 (expecting 50-200,000)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 36,500 (expecting 10-20,000)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 431,500 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 19 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (131,800 MT), Taiwan (84,300 MT), Mexico (50,200 MT), Indonesia (49,500 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Thailand (46,800 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (67,000 MT), Panama (20,900 MT), South Korea (7,000 MT), Ecuador (2,800 MT), and Venezuela (2,000 MT). Net sales of 65,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Nigeria (36,000 MT), Peru (16,000 MT), and Colombia (13,000 MT). Exports of 517,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (89,800 MT), the Philippines (82,800 MT), Yemen (55,000 MT), Indonesia (49,500 MT), Brazil (49,400 MT), Taiwan (47,300 MT), and Algeria (38,900 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 944,900 MT for 2014/2015 were up 4 percent from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (243,205 MT), Japan (152,600 MT, including 32,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT), Colombia (133,800 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), Egypt (131,100 MT), Taiwan (94,400 MT), and the Dominican Republic (36,000 MT). Exports of 616,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (149,100 MT), Egypt (131,100 MT), Colombia (104,800 MT), Japan (88,400 MT), Venezuela (40,000 MT), and Panama (19,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,485,400 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (806,200 MT, including 225,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 161,100 MT), the Netherlands (147,200 MT, including 140,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (112,000 MT), Russia (100,400 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the United Kingdom (63,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from China), and Egypt (44,700 MT). Net sales of 2,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan. Exports of 2,781,100 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (2,122,600 MT), the Netherlands (147,200 MT), Turkey (80,400 MT), Mexico (78,500 MT), the United Kingdom (63,100 MT), Taiwan (49,200 MT), Japan (44,500 MT), and Canada (36,900 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales reductions of 22,300 MT for 2014/2015 resulted as increases for Ecuador (58,100 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Thailand (50,400 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Panama (34,000 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Venezuela (24,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Cuba (22,500 MT), and Colombia (22,400 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from Panama), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (185,800 MT), the Philippines (50,000 MT), Ireland (19,500 MT), Morocco (15,000 MT), and Indonesia (5,400 MT). Net sales of 174,300 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Thailand (174,000 MT) and Mexico (300 MT). Exports of 417,300 MT were up 92 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (108,400 MT), Ecuador (58,100 MT), the Philippines (53,200 MT), Italy (49,500 MT), and Venezuela (39,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 35,600 MT for 2014/2015 were up 82 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (16,000 MT), Peru (10,000 MT), Guatemala (6,000 MT), and Mexico, (3,300 MT). Exports of 5,300 MT were reported to Mexico (4,800 MT), Canada (200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • Jan beans 100 day 1023
  • March corn 100 day 373
  • March wheat 100 day 547 ½
  • March KC wheat 100 day 615 ¼
  • March Minneapolis wheat 100 day 604 ½
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3296
  • Jan bean oil 100 day 3384

 

Open interest as of Wednesday’s close

  • December corn 41,650 open, down 47,689
  • Total corn 1,200,834 open, down 16,802
  • Total beans 668,695 open, down 3,879
  • December meal 11,773 open, down 11,363
  • Total meal 368,940 open, down 10,217
  • December bean oil 7,164 open, down 8,587
  • Total bean oil 373,561 open, down 4,495
  • December wheat 5,390 open, down 11,392
  • Total wheat 364,483 open, down 7,441
  • December KC wheat 1,857 open, down 2,992
  • Total KC wheat 141,991 open, down 1,543

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s November palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections come out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Monday afternoon at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE