News From The Grain Floor 11/26/14

Good morning.

 

As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.

–          John Fitzgerald Kennedy

 

Happy Thanksgiving.

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Today is position day for December futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery. First notice day is Friday. Expectations for deliveries tonight are as follows:

  • Corn expecting 0-100 , as of yesterday afternoon there were 41 corn receipts registered.
  • KC wheat expecting 0-200, as of yesterday afternoon there were 679 KC wheat receipts registered
  • Minneapolis wheat expecting 0-100
  • Chicago wheat expecting 0-500, as of yesterday afternoon there were 341 Chicago wheat receipts registered
  • Bean oil expecting 200-300 (some analysts saying as much as 1,500), as of yesterday afternoon there were 3,688 bean oil receipts registered
  • Soymeal expecting 0, as of yesterday afternoon there were 0 soymeal receipts registered
  • There are 98 oat receipts registered

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 2 ½ at 1048 ½
  • CH up 2 at 389 ¼
  • WH up 4 ¾ at 562 ½
  • KC WH up 5 ¼ at 624 ¼
  • MWH up 4 ¼ at 605
  • SMF down .30 at 374.50
  • BOF unchanged at 3359
  • RRF down 2 at 1234.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 13,431
  • CH 32,408
  • WH 11,227
  • KC WH 1,684
  • MWH 581
  • SMF 5,717
  • BOF 11,533
  • RRF 47

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil steady mixed
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Silver higher. Gold, crude, stock market, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei down .14%

Hang Seng up 1.1%

Shanghai Index up 1.4%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +21K to 313K expecting 289K

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 2.8 MB expecting a build of 470,000 barrels
  • Gas a build of 43,000 barrels expecting a build of 1.8 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 1.3 MB expecting a draw of 550,000 barrels

 

China grain closings = beans down 5, corn up 10, meal up 14, palm oil up 20, and bean oil down 2

 

Malaysian palm oil up 23.

 

European milling wheat futures rise to a four month high.

 

South Korea MFG bought 126,000 tons of optional origin corn for March shipment

 

South Korea Samyang bought 31,000 tons of US wheat for April-May shipment.

 

Pakistan bought 137,000 tons of canola from Canada and Australia for Jan-March shipment

 

Pakistan canceled tender for 20,000 tons of wheat

 

Bangladesh tenders for 50,000 tons of wheat optional origin for January shipment.

 

China to buy 6.0 MMT of corn for state reserves

 

China launches ‘14/15 corn stockpiling scheme. China to start buying corn from local farmers this week

 

Some analysts estimating China’s government could stockpile 40.0 MMT of corn in the ‘14/15 season down from 60 MMT a year ago.

 

Oil World estimates

  • Jan-October 2014 Argentina soybean crush estimated at 32.2 MMT vs. 30.0 MMT a year ago
  • Jan –October 2014 Argentina sunseed crush estimated at 2.0 MMT vs. 2.4 MMT a year ago
  • Jan – September 2014 EU rapeseed crush estimated at 6.7 MMT vs. 6.1 MMT a year ago
  • Jan – September 2014 EU soybean crush estimated at 3.2 MMT vs. 3.0 MMT a year ago
  • Jan –September 2014 EU sunseed crush estimated at 1.3 MMT vs. 1.4 MMT a year ago

 

Hearing China’s bean import needs are 90% covered through December and 60% covered through January.

 

Some analysts are estimating January China bean imports at below 4.0 MMT.

 

Talk/reports of disappointing late corn yields in western US corn belt.

 

Russian government bought 6,345 tons of intervention grain . Total bought since September 30th at 262,150 tons. Government plans to buy 5.0 MMT of grain.

 

UK Farm Ministry estimated ‘14/15 wheat imports at 1.30 MMT down 41% from a year ago

 

Cold weather threatening wheat crops in the US , Russia , and Ukraine.

 

Favorable South American crop weather continues

 

No receipt registration changes yesterday afternoon

 

Moving averages

  • March KC wheat 100 day moving average is 616 ¼
  • March Minneapolis 100 day moving average is 605 ¼
  • Jan bean oil 50 day moving average is 3295
  • Jan bean oil 100 day moving average is 3388

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • December corn 92,672 open, down 53,304
  • Total corn 1,222,273 open, down 21,912
  • Total beans 672,166 open, up 6,030
  • December meal 23,516 open, down 7,462
  • Total meal 379,790 open, up 2,125
  • December bean oil 15,757 open, down 9,339
  • Total bean oil 378,633 open, down 2,319
  • December wheat 16,783 open, down 8,769
  • Total wheat 371,731 open, down 1,834
  • December KC wheat 4,859 open, down 5,070
  • Total KC wheat 143,665 open, down 1,258

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE numbers come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 250,000 barrels
    • Gas a build of 1.5 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 950,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST.
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at noon CST
  • OPEC meets tomorrow.
  • US markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day holiday. See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule.
  • First notice day for December futures is Friday
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • US grain markets close at noon CST on Friday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s November palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Monday afternoon at 230 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE