News From The Grain Floor 11/25/14

Good morning.

 

“If God had wanted man to play soccer, He wouldn’t have given us arms”

–          Mike Ditka

 

USDA announced 116,000 tons of US sorghum sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 11 ¾ at 1045 ½
  • CH up 2 at 382 ¼
  • WH up ¾ at 550 ¼
  • KC WH up 2 ¼ at 608
  • MWH up 2 ¼ at 591 ¾
  • SMF up 6.40 at 369.00
  • BOF up 15 at 3351
  • RRF down 11 at 1233.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,895
  • CH 13,871
  • WH 6,588
  • KC WH 949
  • MWH 387
  • SMF 4,452
  • BOF 13,974
  • RRF 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-13 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat steady to 2 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 6.00-7.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 10-13 lower

 

Gold lower. Silver, stock market, dollar, and crude higher.

 

Nikkei up .29%

Hang Seng down .2%

Shanghai Index up 1.4%

 

China grain closings = beans down 35, corn down 6, meal down 13, palm oil down 36, and bean oil up 18.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 12.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,098,870 tons down 3.3% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,135,252 tons down 2.9% from a month ago

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Nov 15-21st total crush volume at 1,462,350 tons up 10.65% from a week ago
  • For the week Nov 15-21st total crush capacity utilization at 49.05% up 4.72% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014- Nov 21, 2014) crush volume at 9,939,900 tons up 12.61% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 –Nov 21, 2014) crush volume at 63,041,741 tons up 10.76% from a year ago
  • As of November 21st total imported bean stocks at 4.6321 MMT vs. 4.4588 MMT a week ago and down 5.12% from a year ago
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.231 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated December bean imports at 7.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.0 MMT
  • Estimated January bean imports at 6.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated February bean imports at 5.0 MMT , first estimate made
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.6 MMT , first estimate made

 

South Korea MFG bought 53,000 tons of soymeal from South America for Feb-March shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 93,000 tons of US corn for February shipment

 

On Friday China bought 1 cargo of US beans off the Gulf for December shipment

 

Talk/Report China bought several US bean cargoes off the Gulf yesterday

 

On Friday China bought 2 cargoes of US beans off the PNW for January shipment

 

Turkey bought 100,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat

 

AgRural said as of Friday Brazilian farmers have planted 76% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 63% a week ago and vs. 79% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday Brazilian bean planting was 74% complete vs. 78% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday Mato Grosso bean planting was 95% complete

 

Over the weekend Saudi Arabia bought 345,000 tons of wheat for Feb – March shipment from the EU, North America, South America, and Australia.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 17.043 MMT of grain between July 1st – November 19th up 29.8% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 2.62 MMT of grain between July 1st – November 20th vs. 3.29 MMT a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of November 22nd Kazakhstan has harvested 18.5 MMT of grain or 97.7% of total area.

 

SAGIS said South Africa’s October corn ending stocks at 6.523 MMT vs. September ending stocks of 7.418 MMT

 

Argentina Ag Min said on Friday that Argentina farmers have planted 36% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 44% a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min said on Friday that Argentina farmers have planted 42% of their ‘14/15 corn crop vs. 44% a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min said on Friday that Argentina farmers have planted 83% of their ‘14/15 sunseed crop  vs. 92% a year ago

 

COPA said for the week ending November 19th Canadian crushers crushed 121,769 tons of canola down 7.7% from a week ago

 

COPA said for the week ending November 19th Canadian crushers crushed 51,420 tons of soybeans up 42.8% from a week ago

 

Mostly favorable South American crop weather

 

104 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

22 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Spring Valley IL

 

11 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Lacon IL

 

There are still 246 bean receipts registered

 

USDA announcements from yesterday morning at 8 am CST

  • USDA announced 235,000 tons beans sold to China 2014-15
  • USDA announced 174,000 tons soymeal sold to Thailand 2015-16
  • USDA announced 116,000 tons sorghum sold to unknown 2014-15

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday morning

  • Wheat –  447,353 tons, expecting 225,000 -375,000 tons
  • Corn –  529,801 tons, expecting 575,000- 825,000 tons
  • Beans – 2,784,913 tons, expecting 2.45 – 2.725 million tons

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 9K
  • Beans traded even
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil bought 3K

 

Oil World estimates from last week

  • ‘14/15 global production of 7 oilseeds estimated at 509.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 508.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 490.5 MMT
  • ‘14/15 world stocks- to-use ratio of 7 oilseeds 20.4% vs. 17.6% in ‘13/14 vs. 15.9% in ‘12/13, and vs. 14.7% in ‘11/12
  • ‘14/15 global soybean production estimated at 309.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 307.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 284.8 MMT
  • ‘14/15 global rapeseed stocks-to-use ratio at 9.3% vs. 11.7% in ‘13/14 vs. 7.9% in ‘12/13 and vs. 9.2% in ‘11/12
  • ‘14/15 global sunseed crush to decline by 1.8 to 1.9 MMT from ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global palm oil production estimated at 60.8 MMT vs. 59 MMT a year ago and vs. 57.9 MMT five year average

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon.

 

Corn

  • Harvest 94% complete (expecting 94% complete) vs. 89% a week ago and vs. 92% five year average

 

Bean

  • Harvest  97% complete (expecting 97% complete) vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 98% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 58% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) and vs. 62% good to excellent a year ago
  • Emerged 92% vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 89% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Harvest 77% complete vs. 69% a week ago and vs. 83% five year average

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday afternoon. Large spec positions as of November 18th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat = short 34,476
  • KC wheat = short 12,350
  • Corn = long 144,663
  • Beans = short 1,877
  • Meal = long 55,818
  • Bean oil = long 21,251

 

Moving averages

  • March wheat 100 day 548 ¼
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3295
  • Jan bean oil 100 day 3392

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • December corn 147,663 open, down 43,591
  • Total corn 1,246,080 open, down 26,121
  • Total beans 668,771 open, down 1,474
  • December meal 31,029 open, down 9,572
  • Total meal 377,798 open, down 4,617
  • December bean oil 25,149 open, down 12,503
  • Total bean oil 381,084 open, up 107
  • December wheat 26,577 open, down 11,043
  • Total wheat 375,031 open, down 431
  • December KC wheat 10,859 open, down 4,469
  • Total KC wheat 146,086 open, down 1,322

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST (a day early due to US holiday on Thursday)
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 250,000 barrels
    • Gas a build of 1.5 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 950,000 barrels
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST.
  • Position day for December futures is tomorrow . Traders should be out of long positions before the close or risk delivery . Delivery expectations are
    • Corn expecting 0-100, as of yesterday afternoon there were 41 receipts registered
    • Bean oil expecting 200-300 (some analysts saying as much as 1,500 deliveries) , as of yesterday afternoon there were 3,688 bean oil receipts registered
    • Meal expecting 0 deliveries , there are 0 meal receipts registered
    • Wheat expecting 0-500 deliveries , as of yesterday afternoon there were 314 receipts registered
    • KC wheat receipts 679 registered
  • OPEC meets on Thursday.
  • US markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day holiday. See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule.
  • First notice day for December futures is Friday
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • US grain markets close at noon CST on Friday
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Monday afternoon at 230 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE