News From The Grain Floor 11/21/14

Good morning.

 

there’s five real jobs in the world: teacher, fireman, policeman, doctor, and somebody who’s in the armed services.

–          Charles Barkley

 

December options expire today at 115 pm CST.

 

USDA announced 132,000 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 5 ½ at 1026
  • CZ down ¾ at 372 ½
  • CH down 1 ½ at 384 ¾
  • WZ down 3 ¼ at 544
  • WH down 2 ¾ at 549 ¾
  • KC WZ down 1 ¼ at 601
  • KC WH down 2 at 605 ¼
  • MWZ down 1 ½ at 583
  • MWH down 1 at 590 ½
  • SMZ up 1.00 at 371.80
  • SMF up .90 at 360.20
  • BOZ up 39 at 3306
  • BOF up 33 at 3316
  • RRF up 1 at 1259

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 10,857
  • CZ 34,317
  • CH 29,541
  • WZ 6,230
  • WH 10,869
  • KC WZ 427
  • KC WH 898
  • MWZ 184
  • MWH 305
  • SMZ 4,388
  • SMF  5,234
  • BOZ 8,562
  • BOF 11,673
  • RRF 49

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn steady to 2 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady to 2 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 35-45 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Dollar, stock market, crude oil , gold, and silver higher.

 

Nikkei up .33%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai Index up 1.4%

 

China’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in over 2 years this morning.

 

The EU is considering some form of QE.

 

China grain closings = beans up 30, corn down 1, meal up 13, palm oil down 26, and bean oil down 4

 

Malaysian palm oil up 12.

 

Philippines bought 85,000 tons of US meal for March –April shipment

 

Philippines bought 116,500 tons of feed wheat optional origin for March – May shipment

 

Asian flour millers eyeing Canadian spring wheat for early 2015 shipment

 

Talk EPA may announce its 2014 and 2015 bio fuel mandates sometime today, some analysts said the announcement will be delay until December or early 2015.

 

South American weather favorable.

 

53 bean receipts were canceled out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN yesterday afternoon. Total remaining is 279

 

8 bean oil receipts were canceled out of Cargill Ackley IA yesterday afternoon . Total bean oil receipts remaining is 3,872

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Said official ‘13/14 bean planting area was 20.0 MH vs. BAGE estimate of 20.35 MH
  • Said official ‘13/14 bean crop was 54.5 MMT vs. BAGE estimate of 55.5 MMT
  • Estimated ‘14/15 soybean planting area at 20.6 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said soybean planting is 30.4% complete vs. 16.9% a week ago and vs. 37.7% a year ago
  • Said sunflower planting is 82% complete vs. 68.3% a week ago and vs. 94.2% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 sunflower planting area at 1.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said wheat harvest is 21.4% complete vs. 10.8% a week ago and vs. 16% a year ago
  • Estimated 2014 wheat crop at 11.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said official ‘13/14 corn planting area was 3.8 MH
  • Said corn planting is 40.2% complete vs. 38.7% a week ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 corn planting area at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Moving averages

  • Jan bean 100 day 1026 ¼
  • March wheat 100 day 549 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3273
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3296
  • Jan meal 200 day 360.00

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,330,990 open, down 2,313
  • Total beans 674,689 open, up 7,009
  • Total meal 386,743 open, down 1,978
  • Total bean oil 391,109 open, down 1,862
  • Total wheat 406,784 open, down 1,777
  • Total KC wheat 149,887 open, up 1,153

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • Argentine markets closed for holiday on Monday.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Position day for December futures is Wednesday November 26th . Traders should be out of long positions before the close or risk delivery . Early trade talk = expecting no corn deliveries.
  • US markets will be closed Thursday November 27th for Thanksgiving Day holiday. See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule.
  • First notice day for December futures is Friday November 28th
  • US grain markets close at noon CST on Friday November 28th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE