News From The Grain Floor 11/20/14

Good morning.

 

“Others wiser than I have pointed out that nature bats last. We are at the end of an era in which lies can be used to steal from the public and the commons. We are at the beginning of an era in which truth in public service can restore us all to a state of grace.”

–          Robert David Steele

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment.

 

USDA announced 140,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 delivery

 

USDA announced 101,600 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 1 ¾ at 1006 ½
  • CZ up 2 ¼ at 365 ½
  • CH up 2 ½ at 378 ½
  • WZ down 3 at 534 ¾
  • WH down 1 ¾ at 539 ¼
  • KC WZ down ¾ at 585 ½
  • KC WH down a ½ at 588 ¾
  • MWZ unchanged at 571 ½
  • MWH up a ½ at 578 ½
  • SMZ down .90 at 369.50
  • SMF up .40 at 356.50
  • BOZ down 14 at 3237
  • BOF down 15 at 3249
  • RRF down 7 at 1233.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,886
  • CZ 50,480
  • CH 39,125
  • WZ 9,170
  • WH 12,421
  • KC WZ 497
  • KC WH 959
  • MWZ 105
  • MWH 467
  • SMZ 9,021
  • SMF 10,202
  • BOZ 7,660
  • BOF 9,822
  • RRF 95

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Dollar trading both sides this morning. Crude oil higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei up .07%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index up .1%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -2K to 291K expecting 283K

 

China grain closings = beans down 11, corn down 3, meal down 14, palm oil down 30, and bean oil down 26.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 22.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated November 1-20th Malaysian palm oil exports at 843,707 tons down 4.6% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated November 1-20th Malaysian palm oil exports at 837,659 tons down 6.4% from a month ago

 

Hearing South Korea bought a cargo Brazilian meal cargo for Jan shipment

 

Taiwan bought 82,050 tons of US wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Japan bought 123,192 tons of food wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Breakdown

  • 18,748 tons of US western white wheat
  • 16,970 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 36,870 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 22,034 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 28,570 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Israel bought 147,000 tons of optional origin corn (possibly Black Sea origin) for Jan-April shipment

 

Israel canceled tender for 25,000 optional origin wheat

 

Saudi Arabia seeks 330,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for Feb-March shipment

 

Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 92.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop at 21.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 23.3 MMT up 5% from a year ago and vs. USDA estimate of 24.5 MMT

 

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 wheat exports at 10.35 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MMT

 

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 corn exports at 18.1 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 16.5 MMT

 

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘15/16 winter grains sown area at 7.2 MH down 6% from ‘14/15 area.

 

South American weather favorable.

 

No receipt registration changes from yesterday afternoon

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat =  ‘14/15 361,700 tons (expecting 300 -500,000 tons)
  • Corn =  ‘14/15 908,700 tons (expecting 500 -700,000 tons)
  • Beans =  ‘14/15 483,000 tons ‘15/16 4,500 tons (expecting 700,000 -1.0 million tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 265,700 tons (expecting -100,000 to +100,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 19,600 (expecting 5 -20,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat –  Net sales of 361,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for unknown destinations (130,500 MT), the Philippines (52,300 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (52,100 MT), South Korea (43,000 MT), and Jamaica (42,000 MT).  Decreases were reported for Mexico (3,800 MT).  Exports of 178,400 MT were down 43 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (54,400 MT), Israel (31,100 MT), Ecuador (30,000 MT), Mexico (22,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (21,000 MT), and Nigeria (10,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 908,700 MT for 2014/2015 were up 80 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for Japan (447,500 MT, including 40,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,900 MT), Mexico (159,600 MT), Peru (149,400 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from Colombia), Taiwan (149,100 MT), and Canada (28,800 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (58,600 MT), Colombia (21,400 MT), and Vietnam (4,700 MT).  Exports of 386,900 MT–a marketing-year low–were primarily to Japan (139,800 MT), Mexico (94,900 MT), Colombia (56,600 MT), Peru (34,800 MT), Guatemala (22,600 MT), and Honduras (14,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 483,000 MT for 2014/2015 –a marketing-year low–were down 55 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (532,900 MT, including 471,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 182,300 MT), Spain (131,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 60,000 MT switched from China), Mexico (109,100 MT), Japan (78,200 MT, including 57,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (64,600 MT), South Korea (60,300 MT, including 67,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 7,200 MT), and Bangladesh (52,300 MT, switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (657,600 MT).   Net sales of 4,500 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan.  Exports of 3,077,000 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 36 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (2,417,700 MT), Spain (131,500 MT), Mexico (84,600 MT), Japan (64,000 MT), South Korea (62,500 MT), Vietnam (62,200 MT), Bangladesh (53,200 MT), and the Netherlands (38,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 265,700 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeable from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for Cuba (66,000 MT), unknown destinations (41,100 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT), Ecuador (29,600 MT, including 3,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (27,200 MT), and Poland (25,000 MT).   Decreases were reported for Indonesia (9,800 MT).  Exports of 216,900 MT were up 42 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (88,400 MT), Ecuador (37,400 MT), Poland (25,000 MT), Canada (15,300 MT), and Honduras (11,300 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 19,600 MT for 2014/2015 were up 26 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for Mexico (5,600 MT), Nicaragua (3,800 MT), Colombia (3,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,900 MT), and Canada, (2,500 MT).  Exports of 10,600 MT were reported to Mexico (6,500 MT), Canada (3,600 MT), Trinidad (200 MT), and Panama (100 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day 361 ¾
  • March corn 100 day 374 ½
  • Dec wheat 100 day 534 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 584 ½
  • March Minneapolis wheat 50 day 573
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3272
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3296
  • Jan meal 100 day 336.40

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,333,308 open, down 2,661
  • Total beans 668,595 open, down 1,307
  • Total meal 338,750 open, up 3,407
  • Total bean oil 393,006 open, down 7,814
  • Total wheat 409,470 open, down 1,976
  • Total KC wheat 148,799 open, down 1,627

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting -14 BCF
  • Talk/reports EPA may announce its 2014 and 2015 Bio Fuel mandates tomorrow
  • Last trading day for December options is tomorrow. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Position day for December futures is Wednesday November 26th . Traders should be out of long positions before the close or risk delivery
  • US markets will be closed Thursday November 27th for Thanksgiving Day holiday. See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule.
  • First notice day for December futures is Friday November 28th
  • US grain markets close at noon CST on Friday November 28th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE