News From The Grain Floor 11/19/14

Good morning.

 

The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug’

–          Mark Twain

 

USDA announced 125,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 9 ¾ at 1013 ½
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 369 ¼
  • CH down 2 ¼ at 382 ¾
  • WZ down 3 ½ at 545 ½
  • WH down 4 at 547
  • KC WZ down 3 ¼ at 590 ¼
  • KC WH down 3 ¾ at 592 ¾
  • MWZ down 3 at 575 ½
  • MWH down 2 ¼ at 584 ½
  • SMZ down 4.30 at 373.70
  • SMF down 4.50 at 359.10
  • BOZ down 10 at 3255
  • BOF down 7 at 3272
  • RRF up 4 at 1204

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 11,430
  • CZ 42,966
  • CH 35,568
  • WZ 4,742
  • WH 10,426
  • KC WZ 498
  • KC WH 646
  • MWZ 134
  • MWH 275
  • SMZ 3,198
  • SMF 4,467
  • BOZ 11,122
  • BOF 9,794
  • RRF 46

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 4.00- 5.00 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice  3-5 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver higher. Stock market and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei down .32%

Hang Seng down .7%

Shanghai Index down .2%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 3.7 MB expecting a draw of 780,000 barrels
  • Gas a build of 519,000 barrels expecting a build of 600,000 barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 3.3 MB expecting a draw of 1.9 MB

 

China grain closings = beans down 15, corn unchanged, meal down 34, palm oil up 22, and bean oil up 18.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 6.

 

Indonesian Vegetable Oil Association estimated Indonesia’s 2014 palm oil output at 28.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 30.6 MMT.

 

Indonesian Vegetable Oil Association estimated Indonesia’s 2015 palm oil output at 31.0 MMT.

 

Reports Midwest cash meal basis starting to crack.

 

More reports yesterday of US meal cargoes being switched to South American origin.

 

South Korea Kocopia bought 55,000 tons of optional origin corn for March shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 50,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan-March shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 50,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb-March shipment

 

Philippines seeks 116,400 tons of feed wheat from Australia, EU, or Black Sea region for March-May shipment

 

Philippines seeks 86,500 tons of soymeal from the US or Argentina for March-May shipment.

 

Thailand seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin soymeal for July-September shipment

 

Iraq seeks 10,000 tons of sunflower oil , any origin except for China

 

Reports China has been buying feed and malt barley from Australia, Black Sea region, and Europe over the past two weeks.

 

Japan seeks 1,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice from US, South America, Vietnam, and or Thailand

 

Maldives seeks 6,000 tons of wheat flour.

 

Russia bought 7,155 tons of intervention grains , making the total bought since Sept 30th at 255,805 tons. Russian government plans to buy 5.0 million tons.

 

AGPM estimated 2014 French corn crop at 18.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 17.25 MMT

 

22 soybean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN. 332 soybean receipts are still registered.

 

Mostly favorable South American crop weather

 

Cold weather in US threatening wheat crops.

 

Moving averages

  • Jan beans 100 day 1029
  • Dec corn 100 day 362 ½
  • March corn 100 day 375 ¼
  • Dec wheat 100 day 535
  • March wheat 100 day 551
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 585 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3271
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3295
  • Jan meal 200 day 359.90

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,335,884 open, down 4,028
  • Total beans 671,584 open, down 637
  • Total meal 385,774 open, down 2,808
  • Total bean oil 400,961 open, up 696
  • Total wheat 411,454 open, down 1,227
  • Total KC wheat 150,426 open, down 623

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a build of 900,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 2.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors Intertek and SGS will estimate Malaysia’s November 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for December futures is Wednesday November 26th . Traders should be out of long positions before the close or risk delivery
  • US markets will be closed Thursday November 27th for Thanksgiving Day holiday. See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule.
  • First notice day for December futures is Friday November 28th
  • US grain markets close at noon CST on Friday November 28th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE