News From The Grain Floor 11/18/14

Good morning.

 

It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.

–          Henry David Thoreau

 

March corn, wheat, KC wheat, and Minneapolis wheat is top step (spot month) this morning

 

January bean oil and soymeal is top step (spot month) this morning

 

USDA announced 100,647 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 1 ¼ at 1037 ½
  • CZ down 1 ¾ at 375 ¾
  • CH down 2 at 388 ½
  • WZ down 4 ½ at 547 ¼
  • WH down 4 ¾ at 549
  • KC WZ down 2 ½ at 594
  • KC WH down 2 at 598
  • MWZ down 2 ½ at 581
  • MWH down 3 at 588 ½
  • SMZ up 3.20 at 390.30
  • SMF up 2.10 at 372.80
  • BOZ up 23 at 3268
  • BOF up 22 at 3283
  • RRF up 3.50 at 1194.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 13,428
  • CZ 12,311
  • CH 6,931
  • WZ 4,050
  • WH 5,688
  • KC WZ 583
  • KC WH 929
  • MWZ 95
  • MWH 270
  • SMZ 4,070
  • SMF 3,541
  • BOZ 8,843
  • BOF 7,678
  • RRF 64

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady to 2 higher
  • Corn  1-3 lower
  • Wheat  3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Gold and silver higher. Crude, gold, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei up 2.18%

Hang Seng down 1.1%

Shanghai Index down 1.0%

 

China grain closings = beans down 21, corn down 1, meal down 22, palm oil down 18, and bean oil down 44

 

Malaysian palm oil up 21

 

Talk/Reports of 1-2 US meal cargoes to the EU being switched to Brazilian cargoes.

 

Reports 25,000 tons of German rapeseed meal coming into US west coast for November shipment.

 

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s October palm oil ending stocks at 2.38 MMT vs. September ending stocks of 2.50 MMT

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s November 1-15th palm oil exports at 605,624 tons down 2.5% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s November 1-15th palm oil exports at 598,269 tons down 4.5% from a month ago

 

Qatar seeks 40,000 optional origin milling wheat for Jan-March shipment

 

Japan seeks 123,192 tons of food wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Breakdown

  • 18,748 tons of US western white wheat
  • 16,970 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 36,870 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 22,034 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 28,570 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for April/May shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 92,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 75,000 tons of optional origin barley for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week November 8-14th total Chinese crush volume at 1,321,550 tons up 10.29% from a week ago
  • For the week November 8-14th total crush capacity utilization at 44.33% up 4.14% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1st, 2014 –Nov 14th, 2014) crush volume at 8,477,550 tons up 13.76% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1st – November 14th) crush volume at 61,579,391 tons up 10.87% from a year ago
  • As of November 14th total imported bean stocks at 4.4588 MMT vs. 4.4048 MMT a week ago and down 7.26% from a year ago
  • Estimated November’s soybean imports at 6.231 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated December bean imports at 7.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Brazilian bean planting is 62% complete vs. 74% average

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Mato Grosso bean planting is 84% complete vs. 93% average

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Brazil’s first corn crop is 76.2% planted  vs. 91.8% average

 

AgRural said Brazilian bean planting is 63% complete vs. 69% a year ago

 

AgRural said Mato Grosso bean planting is 82% complete.

 

Ciara-Cec said Argentine farmers sold $488 million tons of grains and oilseeds last week down 24% from a week ago.

 

Russia bought 8,370 tons of intervention grain , total bought since September 30th 248,650 tons

 

Ukraine Ag Ministry said Ukraine farmers have planted 4% of their winter wheat crop

 

South American weather favorable

 

Reports yesterday of bird flu found in UK and Netherlands , but authorities say little risk to humans.

 

8 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA. Total receipts registered = 3,880

 

Moving averages

  • Jan beans 100 day 1030 ½
  • March corn 100 day 375 ½
  • March wheat 100 day 551 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3269
  • Jan bean oil 50 day 3293

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Wheat = 139,351 tons expecting 250,000-375,000 tons
  • Corn = 401,116 tons expecting 650,000-850,000 tons
  • Beans = 3,113,311 tons (record) expecting 2.025 -2.3 M tons

 

NOPA October crush report from yesterday

  • Crush at 157.960 MB (record October crush) vs. average estimate of 150.781 million bushels vs. September crush of 99.970 MB and vs. October 2013 crush of 157.063 MB
  • Bean oil stocks at 966.062 million pounds vs. average estimate of 1.064 billion pounds vs. September bean oil stocks of 936.880 million pounds and vs. October 2013 bean oil stocks of 1.356 billion pounds
  • Meal exports at 707,934 tons. No estimate is given for meal exports. In September meal exports were 308,515 tons and in October 2013 meal exports were 701,802 tons

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.


Corn

  • Harvested 89% harvested (expecting 86-88% complete) vs. 80% a week ago and vs. 88% average
    • ILLINOIS 94  % VS 87 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 89 %
    • INDIANA 84 % VS 71 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 88 %
    • IOWA 92 % VS 82 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 90 %
    • MISSOURI 91 % VS 86 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 93 %
    • NEBRASKA 91 % VS 79 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 87 %
    • OHIO 81 % VS 67 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 79 %

 

Beans

  • Harvested 94% harvested (expecting 92-96% complete) vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average
    • ILLINOIS 95 % VS 91 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 97 %
    • INDIANA 93 % VS 85 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 97 %
    • IOWA 98 % VS 96 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 99 %
    • MINNESOTA 99 % VS 99 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 98 %
    • MISSOURI 89 % VS 81 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 91 %
    • NEBRASKA 100 % VS 98 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 99 %
    • OHIO 93 % VS 86 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 96 %

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 60% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 2%) and vs. 63% a year ago
  • Planted 95% (expecting 95-96% complete) vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average
    • COLORADO 100 % PLANTED VS 100 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 100 %
    • KANSAS 99 % PLANTED VS 96 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 99 %
    • NEBRASKA 100 % PLANTED VS 100 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 100 %
    • OKLAHOMA 98 % PLANTED VS 96 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 98 %
    • TEXAS 89 % PLANTED VS 88 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 91 %
    • ILLINOIS 90 % VS 84 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 95 %
    • INDIANA 95% VS 91 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 97 %
    • MISSOURI 88 % VS 74 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 86 %
    • OHIO 100 % VS 95 % LAST WEEK VS 5 YR AVE OF 97 %
  • Emerged 87% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 84% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Harvested 69% harvested vs. 62% a week ago and vs. 74% five year average

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 7,000
  • Beans bought 7,000
  • Meal bought 3,000
  • Bean oil bought 1,000

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,339,742 open, down 767
  • Total beans 672,180 open, up 2,289
  • Total meal 388,510 open, up 977
  • Total bean oil 400,272 open, down 4,613
  • Total wheat 412,802 open, down 4,192
  • Total KC wheat 151,069 open, down 1,110

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a build of 500,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 2.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors Intertek and SGS will estimate Malaysia’s November 1-20th palm oil exports on Thursday
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for December futures is Wednesday November 26th . Traders should be out of long positions before the close or risk delivery
  • US markets will be closed Thursday November 27th for Thanksgiving Day holiday
  • First notice day for December futures is Friday November 28th
  • US grain markets close at noon CST on Friday November 28th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE