News From The Grain Floor 11/14/14

Good morning.

 

“We, and all others who believe in freedom as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees”

–          Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

USDA announced 180,000 US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment ,these sales were previously reported as unknown destinations

 

Today is the last trading day for November futures. Futures expire at noon CST. Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • November beans 512 open, down 1,209
  • November rice 10 open, unchanged.

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their ‘15/16 US acreage estimates. Previous estimates were

  • Corn acreage at 87.771 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 90.855 MA
  • Bean acreage at 88.512 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 84.184 MA
  • All wheat acreage at 56.428 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 56.822 MA
  • Winter wheat acreage at 41.791 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 42.399 MA

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 12 ¼ at 1041 ¼
  • CZ  down 3 ¾ at 382 ½
  • WZ down 2 ¾ at 551
  • KC WZ down 3 ¼ at 602
  • MWZ down 1 ¼ at 583
  • SMZ down 8.80 at 384.70
  • BOZ down 12 at 3195
  • RRF up 7.50 at 1201.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 18,639
  • CZ 16,506
  • WZ 5,420
  • KC WZ 727
  • MWZ 263
  • SMZ 7,545
  • BOZ 10,678
  • RRF 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal  8.50-9.50 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 6-8 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Dollar, stock market, and crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei up .56%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index up .1%

 

Moody upgrades Hang Seng China’s rating to A2; outlook stable.

 

Tensions in Ukraine and Russia continue.

 

China grain closings = Jan 2015 beans up 3 (slightly higher open interest than May , slightly lower trading volume than May) May 2015 beans up 30, corn up 9, meal down 36, palm oil down 36, and bean oil down 16

 

Malaysian palm oil down 27

 

CNGOIC said China bought 1.14 MMT of corn from the Ukraine since October . China has bought 1.32 MMT of corn from Ukraine so far this year

 

Talk/Reports continue Argentine meal being shipped into the US for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Talk/Reports EU rapeseed being shipped into the US

 

Hearing China bought 3-5 cargoes of Brazilian beans this week for April shipment

 

Some analysts estimated November China bean imports at 7.0+ MMT

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s October palm oil stocks estimated at 2.1 MMT vs. 2.20 MMT in September.

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s October palm oil output estimated at 2.26 MMT vs. 2.30 MMT in September.

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s October palm oil exports estimated at 1.73 MMT vs. 1.69 MMT in September.

 

Australian wheat crop estimates are being lowered almost weekly. Analysts estimating wheat crop at 22.0 MMT now.

 

South American weather mostly favorable

 

Cold snap in parts of the US may damage parts of the winter wheat crop.

 

Goldman Sachs roll ended yesterday

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 417,700 tons (expecting 250,000 -450,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 505,300 tons (expecting 400,000 -600,000 tons)
  • Beans = ‘14/15 1,074,300 tons ‘15/16 400 (expecting 1.1- 1.3 million tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 21,300 tons ‘15/16 18,300 (expecting -100,000 to +100,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 15,600 tons (expecting 10,000 -20,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 417,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 57 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for South Korea (60,300 MT), the Dominican Republic (49,000 MT), unknown destinations (46,700 MT), Guatemala (43,800 MT, including 30,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 800 MT), and El Salvador (41,800 MT, including 17,300 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for Jamaica (2,000 MT).  Exports of 316,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Nigeria (68,000 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Mexico (41,300 MT), South Korea (34,200 MT), Guatemala (29,400 MT), Singapore (22,000 MT), and Jamaica (21,200 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 505,300 MT for 2014/2015 were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for Japan (189,300 MT, including 66,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 19,600 MT), Mexico (88,300 MT), Saudi Arabia (71,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (62,000 MT), and Venezuela (40,000 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (40,200 MT), Taiwan (15,400 MT), and China (3,000 MT).   Exports of 600,800 MT were primarily to Mexico (201,000 MT), Peru (72,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (71,500 MT), Colombia (67,200 MT), Japan (66,700 MT), and Venezuela (60,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,074,300 MT for 2014/2015 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (733,000 MT, including 168,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 55,000 MT switched from Spain, and decreases of 20,500 MT), Mexico (101,100 MT), Thailand (85,600 MT), Saudi Arabia (66,000 MT), and Indonesia (59,900 MT, including 68,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 14,400 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (102,500 MT), Spain (55,000 MT), Vietnam (23,500 MT), and Taiwan (13,400 MT).  Exports of 2,268,800 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week, but up12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (1,555,600 MT), Mexico (136,000 MT), Turkey (115,500 MT), the Netherlands (106,600 MT), Indonesia (94,000 MT), Thailand (79,400 MT), and Egypt (42,700 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 21,300 MT for 2014/2015 resulted as increases for Italy (45,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Denmark (42,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Saudi Arabia (42,000 MT), Spain (28,100 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (22,100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (172,100 MT), Vietnam (16,900 MT), and Algeria (15,000 MT).   Net sales of 18,300 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico.  Exports of 153,300 MT were reported to Denmark (42,000 MT), Spain (28,100 MT), Israel (17,500 MT), Canada (15,200 MT), and Mexico (12,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 15,600 MT for 2014/2015 reported for Mexico (11,900 MT), Peru (3,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,000 MT), Canada (500 MT), and Australia, (100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (2,000 MT).  Exports of 18,200 MT were reported to Guatemala (6,500 MT), Mexico (5,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,500 MT), Trinidad (600 MT), and Canada (500 MT).

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Bean planting is 16.8% complete vs. 7.2% a week ago and vs. 21.8% a year ago
  • Bean planting area estimated at 20.6 MH, unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 38.7% complete vs. 37.4% a week ago and vs. 42.0% a year ago
  • Corn planting area estimated at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower planting is 68.3% complete
  • Sunflower planting area estimated at 1.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Wheat harvest 10.8% complete vs. 8.9% a week ago and vs. 6.9% a year ago
  • Wheat crop estimated at 11.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

75 new bean receipts registered yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN . Total bean receipts registered = 75.

 

Deliveries

  • 10 rice deliveries with the date current
  • 75 soybean deliveries with the date at 10/02/14
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 75.

 

Moving averages

  • Jan bean 100 day 1035
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3267

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,329,844 open, up 18,049
  • Total beans 661,601 open, up 5,616
  • Total meal 388,865 open, up 4,122
  • Total bean oil 398,544 open, up 716
  • Total wheat 413,980 open, up 4,103
  • Total KC wheat 154,219 open, down 1,128

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +36 BCF
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with their Malaysian Nov 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out Monday at 11 am CST. Reuters estimates for the report:
    • Crush average estimate 150.781 million bushels vs. September crush of 99.970 MB and vs. October 2013 crush of 157.063 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.064 billion pounds vs. September bean oil stocks of 936.880 million pounds and vs. October 2013 bean oil stocks of 1.356 billion pounds
    • No estimate is given for meal exports. In September meal exports were 308,515 tons and in October 2013 meal exports were 701,802 tons
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Tuesday Nov 18th March KC wheat, Chicago wheat, corn, and oats go top step (spot month)
  • Tuesday Nov 18th Jan meal and bean oil go top step (spot month)
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday . Options expire at 1:15 pm CST
  • OPEC meets on November 27th.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE