News From The Grain Floor 11/13/14

Good morning.

 

There’s no point in being grown up if you can’t be childish sometimes.

–          Doctor Who

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 3 ½ at 1051 ¼
  • CZ up 2 ½ at 380 ¼
  • WZ up a ½ at 543 ¼
  • KC WZ up 1 ¼ at 600 ¼
  • MWZ unchanged at 581 ¼
  • SMZ up 4.70 at 399.70
  • BOZ down 2 at 3220
  • RRF up 3.50 at 1205

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,473
  • CZ 44,887
  • WZ 15,209
  • KC WZ 898
  • MWZ 229
  • SMZ 5,598
  • BOZ 19,525
  • RRF 78

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal  4.50-5.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude and dollar lower. Gold, silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up 1.14%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index down .3%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +12K to 290K expecting 281K.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon.

  • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB, expecting a build of 800,000 barrels
  • Gas a build of 1.1 MB, expecting a build of 500,000 barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 1.3 MB, as expected

 

Tensions in Ukraine and Russia continue.

 

China grain closings = beans down 39, corn down 1, meal down 19, palm oil down 26, and bean oil down 82

 

Malaysian palm oil down 27
Talk/reports continue of Argentine meal coming into the US for Dec-Jan shipment. Some analysts say 80,000 tons of Argentine meal was booked

  • Four shipments of Argentine soymeal are headed to the US , according to a Buenos Aires- based grains industry source – Reuters

 

South Korea KFA canceled tender to import 50,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat

 

Japan bought 127,355 tons of food wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Breakdown

  • 15,590 tons of US western white wheat
  • 39,910 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 36,095 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 35,760 tons of Australia white wheat

 

Hearing on Tuesday China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans for April shipment

 

Chinese crushing margins are negative, lowest in seven months.

 

USDA updates farmer-reported U.S crop planting totals for November – Reuters

  • Farmers enrolled 85.842 MA of corn vs. 85.204 MA reported a month ago
  • Farmers enrolled 81.392 MA of soybeans vs. 81.003 MA reported a month ago
  • Farmers enrolled 53.451 MA of wheat vs. 53.301 MA reported a month ago
  • US farmers report prevented plantings of 1.594 MA of corn vs. 1.582 MA reported a month ago
  • US farmers report prevented plantings of .839 MA of beans vs. .835 MA reported a month ago
  • US farmers report prevented plantings of 1.379 MA of wheat vs. 1.378 MA reported a month ago

 

Solvent Extractors of Association came out with India import estimates this morning.

  • India’s ’13/14 cooking oil imports estimated at 11.62 MMT vs. 10.38 MMT a year ago
  • India’s cooking oil imports hit a record high in ‘13/14
  • India’s ‘13/14 bean oil imports estimated at 1.95 MMT vs. 1.09 MMT a year ago
  • India’s ‘13/14 sunflower oil imports estimated at 1.51 MMT vs. .97 MMT a year ago
  • India’s ‘13/14 palm oil imports estimated at 7.96 MMT vs. 8.29 MMT a year ago

 

India’s food ministry recommends raising import taxes on crude edible oils to 5% from 2.5% currently

 

India’s food ministry recommends raising import taxes on refined edible oils to 15% from 10% currently

 

Grain Growers of Canada said 2015 Canadian canola planting area will be unchanged from 2014 area

 

Grain Growers of Canada expects 2015 durum wheat planting area to increase from 2014

 

Possible wheat damage in Nebraska and northeast Colorado

 

Concerns very cold weather in US could stall growth of winter wheat crop. Fears of winterkill due to lack of snow cover.

 

Drought concerns in Australia

 

South American planting weather mostly favorable.

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They have been rolling long Dec corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.

 

No receipt registration changes from yesterday afternoon.

 

Deliveries

  • 10 rice deliveries with the date current
  • No soybean deliveries again today

 

Moving averages

  • Jan bean 100 day 1036 ¾
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3268
  • Dec wheat 100 day 537
  • KC Dec wheat 50 day 587

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,311,645 open, down 16,677
  • November beans 1,721 open, down 2,374
  • Total beans 656,888 open, down 3,719
  • Total meal 385,714 open, down 4,960
  • Total bean oil 397,847 open, down 1,533
  • Total wheat 411,500 open, down 3,331
  • Total KC wheat 155,354 open, down 5,179

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 10 am CST (delayed due to US holiday on Tuesday). Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.1 MB
    • Gas a build of 350,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +36 BCF
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their ‘15/16 US acreage estimates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn acreage at 87.771 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 90.855 MA
    • Bean acreage at 88.512 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 84.184 MA
    • All wheat acreage at 56.428 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 56.822 MA
    • Winter wheat acreage at 41.791 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 42.399 MA
  • Tomorrow is last trading day for November futures. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with their Malaysian Nov 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA October crush report comes out Monday at 11 am CST. There are not any estimates for the report yet but previously
    • September 2014 crush = 99.970 million bushels
    • October 2013 crush = 157.063 million bushels
    • September 2014 bean oil stocks = 936.880 million pounds
    • October 2013 bean oil stocks = 1.356 billion pounds
    • September 2014 meal exports = 308,515 tons
    • October 2013 meal exports = 701,802 tons
  • Tuesday Nov 18th March KC wheat, Chicago wheat, corn, and oats go top step (spot month)
  • Tuesday Nov 18th Jan meal and bean oil go top step (spot month)
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE