News From The Grain Floor 11/12/14

Good morning.

“It is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now…

–          John F. Kennedy

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 13 ¾ at 1077 ¾
  • CZ  up 3 ½ at 377 ¼
  • WZ up 8 at 533 ¼
  • KC WZ up 8 ¾ at 587 ¼
  • MWZ up 8 ¾ at 575 ½
  • SMZ up 9.30 at 409.90
  • BOZ up 29 at 3316
  • RRF up 7.50 at 1192.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 27,305
  • CZ 25,056
  • WZ 12,113
  • KC WZ 2,041
  • MWZ 409
  • SMZ 5,706
  • BOZ 11,056
  • RRF 146

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn  3-5 higher
  • Wheat 7-10 higher
  • KC wheat 7-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-10 higher
  • Meal 9.00-10.00 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice 6-9 higher

 

Silver, crude, and dollar lower. Stock market and gold higher.

 

Nikkei up .43%

Hang Seng up .6%

Shanghai Index up 1.4%

 

China grain closings = beans down 6, corn up 3, meal up 68, palm oil up 46, and bean oil up 90

 

Malaysian palm oil down 6.

 

Reports/talk of US soymeal cancelations or cargoes being switched to South American meal.

 

Reports/talk of South American meal being imported into the US

 

Reports Mexico bought 10,000 tons of US soymeal for December shipment

 

Reports Canada bought 20,000 tons of US meal for December shipment

 

Concerns over meal logistics continue

 

South Korea seeks 110,000 tons of feed wheat optional origin for Feb-March shipment

 

Good US farmer selling noted yesterday

 

Good Brazilian farmer selling noted yesterday

 

October US, South American, and India soymeal exports at 4.077 MMT vs. October 2013 of 4.091 MMT

 

Rosario Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 soy planting area at 20.7 MH vs. previous estimate of 20.6-20.9 MH

 

Rosario Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 commercial corn harvest at 21.5 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2015 soft wheat and durum wheat crop at 148.7 MMT vs. 2014 crop of 155.0 MMT

 

Ukraine statistics office data said as of Nov 1st 2014 Ukraine harvested 57.2 MMT of grain up 14% from a year ago

 

Ukraine statistics office data said as of Nov 1st 2014 Ukraine harvested 10.0 MMT of sunflower seed down  2.5% from a year ago

 

Ag Resource said soybean prices will test $9 in the next 2-4 months

 

Analysts said funds continue to add to long positions

 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in forecast in Brazilian soybean areas , starting in the south and moving north – east today and tomorrow . Above normal temps in Brazil today cooler temps tomorrow and Friday.

 

Central Argentina mostly dry next 7 days favorable planting weather.

 

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends tomorrow.. They have been rolling long Dec corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.

 

No receipt registration changes from yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • 13 rice deliveries with the date current
  • No soybean deliveries again today

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day 365 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3270
  • Dec wheat 100 day 537 ½
  • KC Dec wheat 50 day 587 ½
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 564

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,327,987 open, up 4,963
  • November beans 4,095 open, down  1,792
  • Total beans 661.591 open, up 916
  • Total meal 390,678 open, up 3,127
  • Total bean oil 399,403 open, down 900
  • Total wheat 413,592 open, up 2,984
  • Total KC wheat 160,157 open, down 384

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST (delayed due to US holiday on Tuesday). Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.1 MB
    • Gas a build of 350,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
    • Solvent Extractors of Association will come out with India import estimates this week. Based on a Bloomberg survey. India’s October imports
    • Palm oil imports estimated at 800,000 tons vs. 684,479 tons a month ago and vs. 767,695 tons a year ago
    • Soybean oil imports estimated at 175,000 tons vs. 161,016 tons a month ago and vs. 97,023 tons a year ago
    • Sunflower oil imports estimated at 95,000 tons vs. 132,491 tons a month ago and vs
  • USDA will update FSA acreage data tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly  EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Friday at 930 am CST
  • Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their ‘14/15 US acreage estimates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn acreage at 87.771 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 90.855 MA
    • Bean acreage at 88.512 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 84.184 MA
    • All wheat acreage at 56.428 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 56.822 MA
    • Winter wheat acreage at 41.791 MA vs. USDA October 2014 acreage of 42.399 MA
  • Friday is last trading day for November futures. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with their Malaysian Nov 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA October crush report comes out Monday Nov 17th at 11 am CST
  • Tuesday Nov 18th March KC wheat, Chicago wheat, corn, and oats go top step (spot month)
  • Tuesday Nov 18th Jan meal and bean oil go top step (spot month)
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE