News From The Grain Floor 11/11/14

Good morning.

The willingness of America’s veterans to sacrifice for our country has earned them our lasting gratitude.

–          Jeff Miller

 

America’s Veterans have served their country with the belief that democracy and freedom are ideals to be upheld around the world.

–          John Doolittle

 

“If a nation values anything more than freedom, it will lose its freedom; and the irony of it is that if it is comfort or money that it values more, it will lose

that too.”

–           Somerset Maugham

 

No USDA announcements this morning – USDA is closed today

 

Grain markets are opened normal time today. Currency and financial markets are closed today for Veteran’s Day holiday.

 

US banks are also closed today.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 3 at 1286 ¾
  • CZ  up a ½ at 369 ¾
  • WZ down 1 ¾ at 515 ½
  • KC WZ down 1 ¼ at 571 ¾
  • MWZ  up 1 ½ at 555 ¾
  • SMZ up 3.00 at 383.90
  • BOZ up 33 at 3269
  • RRF down 2 at 1195

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 10,494
  • CZ 11,361
  • WZ 5,167
  • KC WZ 939
  • MWZ 492
  • SMZ 2,944
  • BOZ 6,927
  • RRF 61

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn  steady better
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver , and crude lower

 

Nikkei up 2.05%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index down .3%

 

China grain closings = beans down 37, corn unchanged, meal down 26, palm oil up 54, and bean oil 26

 

Malaysian palm oil up 27

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Nov 1 -7th total crush volume at 1,198,250 tons down 13.0% from a week ago
  • For the week Nov 1- 7th total crush capacity utilization at 40.19% down 6.72% from a week ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 –Nov 7th) crush volume at 60,257,841 tons up 11.12% from a year ago
  • As of November 7th total imported bean stocks at 4.4048 MMT vs. 4.2588 MMT a week ago and down 7.60% from a year ago
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.231 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.1 MMT and vs. October imports of 4.393 MMT
  • Estimated December bean imports at 7.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.6 MMT
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey. India’s October imports

  • Palm oil imports estimated at 800,000 tons vs. 684,479 tons a month ago and vs. 767,695 tons a year ago
  • Soybean oil imports estimated at 175,000 tons vs. 161,016 tons a month ago and vs. 97,023 tons a year ago
  • Sunflower oil imports estimated at 95,000 tons vs. 132,491 tons a month ago and vs

 

CONAB came out this morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • Corn crop estimated at 77.3 -78.9  MMT vs. previous estimate of 76.6-78.9 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 79.9 MMT
  • Corn planting area expecting to fall 1.8-3.7%
  • Bean crop estimated at 89.3-91.7  MMT vs. previous estimate of 88.83- 92.41 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT
  • Soybean planting area expected to rise by 2.3-5.1%
  • Bean exports estimated at 48.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 48.5 MMT vs.46.6 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Total grain, oilseed, and fiber production estimated at 194.4 -200.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 production of 194.7 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 7.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.7 MMT

 

Oil World updates

  • US bean exports have to rise by at least 3 million tons to 41 million tons in Sep’14/Feb’15 to satisfy world demand
  • Brazil bean exports will be smaller than expected in Jan-Feb’15 due to delayed harvesting
  • Chinese soybean imports accelerating for Nov-Dec’14
  • 2014-15 US bean exports may exceed 49-50 million tons and exceed US crushing for first time. USDA export estimate is 46.8 million tons

 

Interfax said Russia exported 2.5 MMT of wheat in October vs. 3.0 MMT in September

 

Interfax said Russia exported about 270,000 tons of corn in October and about 630,000 tons of barley in October

 

Russian wheat buried under snow on 200,000 hectares in Altai

 

Concerns about crop lost in Russia

 

South Korea seeks 90 tons of rice from Thailand for Jan shipment

 

CME raises initial margins for soybean meal futures as of close today

 

South American weather continues to improve

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends Thursday. They have been rolling long Dec corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.

 

5 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • No rice deliveries today
  • No soybean deliveries again today

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day 366 ¼
  • Jan bean 100 day 1040 ¼
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3267
  • Dec wheat 50 day 508 ¼

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.


Corn

  • Harvested 80% complete (expecting 60-65% complete) vs. 65% a week ago and vs. 73% five year average
    • IL corn harvest 87% complete vs. 77% a week ago and vs. 84% average
    • IN corn harvest is 71% vs. 58% a week ago and vs. 80% average
    • IA corn harvest 82% vs. 61% a week ago and vs. 83% average
    • MO corn harvest 86% complete vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 90% average
    • NE corn harvest is 79% complete vs. 60% a week ago and vs. 79% average
    • OH corn harvest is 67% complete vs. 52% a week aog and vs. 67% average

 

Beans

  • Harvested 90% complete (expecting 89-92% complete) vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 91% five year average
    • IL bean harvest 91% complete vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 93% average
    • IN bean harvest 85% vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 92% average
    • IA bean harvest 96% complete vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 96% average
    • MN 98% complete vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 91% average
    • MO 91% vs. 64% a week ago and vs. 83% average
    • NE 98% complete vs. 95% a week ago and vs. 98% average
    • OH 86% complete vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 90% average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 60% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago  (expecting unchanged from a week ago) and vs. 65% good to excellent a year ago
  • Planted 93% (expecting 87-91%) vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 93% five year average
  • Emerged 83% vs. 77% a week ago and vs. 79% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Harvested 62% vs. 50% a week ago and vs. 64% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn  1,322,845 open, up 7,111
  • November beans 5,887 open, down 1,897
  • Total beans 660,690 open, up 2,106
  • Total meal 387,492 open, up 3,329
  • Total bean oil 400,290 open, down 3,718
  • Total wheat 410,270 open, down 10,989
  • Total KC wheat 160,447 open, down 179

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly reports have been pushed back do to Veteran’s Day holiday in US today
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Solvent Extractors of Association will come out with India import estimates this week.
  • USDA will update FSA acreage data on Thursday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out on Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly  EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Friday at 930 am CST
  • Friday is last trading day for November futures. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with their Malaysian Nov 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA October crush report comes out Monday Nov 17th at 11 am CST
  • Tuesday Nov 18th March KC wheat, Chicago wheat, corn, and oats go top step (spot month)
  • Tuesday Nov 18th Jan meal and bean oil go top step (spot month)
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE