News From The Grain Floor 11/10/14

Good morning.

 

“Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.”

–          Thomas Edison

 

USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am. See below for estimates and see attachment for recap table.  

 

USDA announced 130,000 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 3 ¾ at 1040 ½
  • CZ  down 1 at 366 ½
  • WZ down a ¼ at 514 ¼
  • KC WZ down 1 ½ at 567 ¾
  • MWZ down 1 ¼ at 545
  • SMZ up 2.20 at 392.60
  • BOZ up 28 at 3268
  • RRF up 1 at 1211.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 10,548
  • CZ  11,250
  • WZ 5,019
  • KC WZ 1,052
  • MWZ  451
  • SMZ 2,762
  • BOZ 11,100
  • RRF 2

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn  steady to 2 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and dollar lower

 

 

Nikkei down .59%

Hang Seng up .8%

Shanghai Index up 2.3%

 

China’s October trade balance report

  • October exports +11.6 expecting +10.6%
  • October imports +4.6% expecting +5.5%
  • China’s October trade balance $+45.4 billion expecting $+42 billion

 

China’s October CPI +1.6% expecting +1.6%

 

China’s October PPI -2.2% expecting -2.0%

 

China grain closings = beans down 5, corn up 5, meal up 3, pal oil up 16, and bean oil up 34

 

Malaysian palm oil up 42

 

China’s customs data said China imported 4.10 MMT of beans in October vs. 5.03 MMT in September

 

China’s customs data said China imported 380,000 tons of edible oils in October vs. 430,000 tons in September

 

China’s MOC estimated China’s November imports at 4.47 MMT vs. October estimate of 3.32 MMT

 

China’s MOC estimated China’s November bean oil imports at 17,800 tons vs. October estimate of 93,700

 

China’s MOC estimated China’s November palm oil imports at 174,800 vs. October estimate of 192,600 tons

 

China’s MOC estimated China’s November rapeseed oil imports at 16,100 tons vs. October imports of 76,600 tons

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their October palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • October palm oil stocks at 2.17 MMT expecting 2.16 MMT and vs. September stocks of 2.09 MMT
  • October palm oil output at 1.89 MMT expecting 1.86 MMT and vs. September output of 1.897 MMT
  • October palm oil exports at 1.61 MMT expecting 1.58 MMT vs. September exports of 1.628 MMT

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-10th palm oil exports at 395,249 tons down .2% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysian’s Nov 1-10 palm oil exports at 400,614 tons up 1.3% from a month ago

 

Mato Grosso scattered showers and thunderstorms in Mato Grosso.

 

Good harvest weather in Midwest

 

Cold weather in US may damage winter wheat crops

 

Reminder of new daily price limits that started on November 2nd  

  • Corn limit is now .25 cents vs. old limit of .35 cents
  • Bean limit is now .70 cents vs. old limit of $1
  • Wheat limit is now .35 cents vs. old limit of .45 cents
  • KC wheat limit is now .40 cents vs. old limit of .50 cents
  • Bean oil limit is now 250 tics vs. old limit of 300 tics
  • Meal limits now $25 vs. old limit of $30
  • Oat limits unchanged at .25 cents
  • Rice limit is now .90 cents vs. old limit of $1.10

 

Weekly COT supplemental report Friday. Large spec positions as of November 4th. Futures and options combined.

  • Wheat short 47,253
  • KC wheat short 7,350
  • Corn long 124,630
  • Beans short 7,991
  • Meal long 62,958
  • Bean oil long 41,567

 

44 ethanol receipts canceled Friday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Rice 4 with the date at 11/06/14
  • No soybean deliveries

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day is 367
  • Jan bean 100 day 1042 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3267
  • Dec wheat 50 day 509

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,315,372 open, down 3,754
  • November beans 7,784 open, down 1,483
  • Total beans 658,751 open, down 1,110
  • Total meal 384,178 open, down 662
  • Total bean oil 404,095 open, down 2,187
  • Total wheat 419,992 open, 1,391
  • Total KC wheat 160,247 open, up 1,837

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Bean planting expecting 89-92% complete
    • Corn planting 81-85% complete
    • Winter wheat conditions steady
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow  with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT
    • Bean crop estimated at 88.83- 92.41 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 48.5 MMT
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Last trading day for November futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out Monday Nov 17th at 11 am CST
  • Tuesday Nov 18th March KC wheat, Chicago wheat, corn, and oats go top step (spot month)
  • Tuesday Nov 18th Jan meal and bean oil go top step (spot month)
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

USDA November crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Monday November 10th at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.551 BB , range of estimates are 14.242- 14.842 BB. USDA October estimate was 14.475 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.233 BPA, range of estimates are 171.4 – 178.6 BPA. USDA October estimate was 174.2 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.967 BB, range of estimates are 3.903- 4.064 BB. USDA October estimate was 3.927 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.358 BB.
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 47.608 BB, range of estimates are 46.8- 48.7 BPA. USDA October estimate was 47.1 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 44.0 BPA.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .660 BB, range of estimates are .634- .682 BB. USDA October estimate was .654 BB.
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.135 BB, range of estimates are 1.850- 2.282 BB. USDA October  estimate was 2.081 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .442 BB, range of estimates are .403- .513 BB. USDA October estimate was .450 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.53 MMT , range of estimates are 185.00- 186.13 MMT. USDA October estimate was 185.58 MMT
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 173.02 MMT, range of estimates are 172.00- 173.78 MMT . USDA October estimate was 173.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 66.33 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0 – 66.53 MMT. USDA October estimate was 66.49 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.15 MMT, range of estimates are 189.79- 196.40 MMT. USDA October estimate was 192.59 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.77 MMT, range of estimates are 185.60- 194.18 MMT. USDA October estimate was 190.58 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 90.37 MMT, range of estimates are 89.50- 92.55 MMT. USDA October estimate was 90.67 MMT

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE