News From The Grain Floor 11/07/14

Good morning.

 

“Most of my errors were errors of assumption; assume nothing, question everything.”

–          Fran Tarkenton

 

Goldman Sachs roll begins today. They will be rolling long Dec corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into March for the next 5 days.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 1 at 1027
  • CZ  down 3 ¾ at 367 ½
  • WZ down 5 at 515 ¼
  • KC WZ down 6 ¼ at 572 ¾
  • MWZ down 3 at 551
  • SMZ down 2.70 at 389.00
  • BOZ down 11 at 3242
  • RRF down 4 at 1205

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 28,350
  • CZ  17,099
  • WZ 8,189
  • KC WZ 1,039
  • MWZ  341
  • SMZ 8,698
  • BOZ 11,298
  • RRF 39

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady to 2 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 6-8 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar higher this morning

 

Nikkei up .52%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index down .2%

 

US October unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • October nonfarm payrolls at +214K expecting +233K
  • October unemployment rate at 5.8% expecting 5.9%
  • September nonfarm payrolls revised to +256K from +248K

 

China grain closings = beans up 42, corn up 4, meal up 51, palm oil up 24, and bean oil up 46.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 26

 

Meal export logistics slowly improving

 

More talk/reports of US meal cancelations or switches to South American meal

 

South Korean bought 28,800 tons of US milling wheat for March – April shipment

 

Iraq bought 170,000 tons of Thailand and South American rice

 

Iraq bought 200,000 tons of hard wheat from Canada and Australian wheat for Dec-Feb shipment

 

Turkey seeks 60,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Analysts estimated India’s ‘14/15 soybean output at 10.44 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 9.48 MMT

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Nov 7th Kazakhstan farmers have harvested 17.482 MMT of grain on 13.952 MH with an average yield of 1.25 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 20.57 MMT of grain on 15.427 MH with an average yield of 1.33 TPH

 

Today is the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends on Monday. DB has been rolling long Dec 2014 corn into Dec 2015 corn.

 

48 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

28 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

3 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Ethanol 28 with the date at 11/04/14
  • Rice 115 with the date current
  • No soybeans

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day 367 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3266
  • Jan bean 100 day 1044 ¼
  • Dec wheat 50 day 510

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,320,417, up 507
  • November beans 9,262 open, down 3,156
  • Total beans 659,817 open, up 2,542
  • Total meal 384,863 open, up 5,115
  • Total bean oil 406,545 open, down 1,765
  • Total wheat 420,992 open, up 1,056
  • Total KC wheat 158,410 open, down 635

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • China’s October trade balance report comes out on Saturday.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their October palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • October palm oil stocks at 2.16 MMT vs. September stocks of 2.09 MMT
    • October palm oil output at 1.86 MMT vs. September output of 1.897 MMT
    • October palm oil exports at 1.58 MMT vs. September exports of 1.628 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s November 1-10th palm oil exports on Monday November 10th.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • USDA November crop production report comes out Monday November 10th at 11 am CST see below for estimates for the report and see attachment for recap table for the report
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday November 11thwith their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT
    • Bean crop estimated at 88.83- 92.41 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 48.5 MMT
  • Last trading day for November futures is Nov 14th. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Nov 17th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for December options is 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

USDA November crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Monday November 10th at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.551 BB , range of estimates are 14.242- 14.842 BB. USDA October estimate was 14.475 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.233 BPA, range of estimates are 171.4 – 178.6 BPA. USDA October estimate was 174.2 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.967 BB, range of estimates are 3.903- 4.064 BB. USDA October estimate was 3.927 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.358 BB.
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 47.608 BB, range of estimates are 46.8- 48.7 BPA. USDA October estimate was 47.1 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 44.0 BPA.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .660 BB, range of estimates are .634- .682 BB. USDA October estimate was .654 BB.
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.135 BB, range of estimates are 1.850- 2.282 BB. USDA October  estimate was 2.081 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .442 BB, range of estimates are .403- .513 BB. USDA October estimate was .450 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.53 MMT , range of estimates are 185.00- 186.13 MMT. USDA October estimate was 185.58 MMT
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 173.02 MMT, range of estimates are 172.00- 173.78 MMT . USDA October estimate was 173.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 66.33 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0 – 66.53 MMT. USDA October estimate was 66.49 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.15 MMT, range of estimates are 189.79- 196.40 MMT. USDA October estimate was 192.59 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.77 MMT, range of estimates are 185.60- 194.18 MMT. USDA October estimate was 190.58 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 90.37 MMT, range of estimates are 89.50- 92.55 MMT. USDA October estimate was 90.67 MMT

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE