News From The Grain Floor 11/06/14

Good morning.

 

Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it.

–          George Halas

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 4 at 1023 ¼
  • CZ  down 2 ¾ at 367 ½
  • WZ down 3 at 521 ¾
  • KC WZ down 2 ¾ at 581 ¾
  • MWZ down 3 at 556 ¾
  • SMZ up 3.20 at 378.50
  • BOZ up 8 at 3280
  • RRF down 3.50 at 1238

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 19,061
  • CZ 17,154
  • WZ 7,141
  • KC WZ 906
  • MWZ 235
  • SMZ 4,974
  • BOZ 18,707
  • RRF 38

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 better
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower.

 

Nikkei down .86%

Hang Seng down .2%

Shanghai Index up .3%

 

Yesterday there was an explosion at a Saudi oil pipeline.
Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at  -10K to 278K expecting 285K

 

China grain closings = beans down 52, corn up 3, meal up 5, palm oil down 46, and bean oil down 24.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 29

 

Dorab Mistry expecting India’s ‘14/15 veg oil imports to hit a record of 12.3 MMT

 

Dorab Mistry said China’s crush margins are expected to improve over the next few months

 

Hearing China bought 1 US bean cargo off the PNW yesterday for December shipment.

 

Thailand bought 167,400 tons of from Brazil and Ukraine for Feb- June shipment

 

Thailand bought 13,000 tons of Indian rapeseed meal for December shipment

 

Japan bought 133,521 tons of food wheat from the US and from Canada for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Egypt FIHC tenders today for 120,000 tons of bean oil and 120,000 tons of sunflower oil for Jan-March shipment.

 

South Korea seeks 28,900 tons of US wheat for March – April shipment

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s October bean imports at 4.2 MMT

 

Shanghai JCI Intelligence Co. estimated China’s October bean import at 4.3-4.5 MMT

 

Shanghai JCI Intelligence Co. estimated China’s November bean imports at 5.81 MMT

 

In September China imported 5.03 MMT of beans .

 

Official China’s trade balance report comes out on Saturday

 

ARC (Ag Resource Company) estimated 2014 US soybean yield at 48.0 BPA

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of November 5th Russia has harvested 108.3 MMT of grain on 43.4 MH (or 96.3% of total area) with an average yield of 2.5 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 92.3 MMT of grain on 41.3 MH with an average yield of 2.23 TPH

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT vs. 25.3 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Today is the third day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends on Monday. DB has been rolling long Dec 2014 corn into Dec 2015 corn.

 

Steady harvest progress in the Midwest

 

Improving rain forecasts in Central Brazil . Somar forecast –  scattered showers expected in parts of Mato Grosso’s bean planting areas today, heavier showers are forecasted Between Nov 11-15th in central and southeast growing areas

 

16 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

4 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Ethanol 16 with the date at 10/27/14
  • Rice 36 with the date current
  • No soybeans

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat =  ‘14/15 265,800 tons (expecting 325,000 -525,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 478,200 tons (expecting 600,000- 800,000 tons)
  • Beans =  ‘14/15 1.61 million tons ‘15/16 3,200 (expecting 900,000 -1.1 M tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 -123,700 tons ‘15/16 800 (expecting 100,000 -250,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 13,900 (expecting 5,000 -30,000 tons)

 

Expecting to see the confirmation of the talk last week of US soymeal cancelations in today’s export sales report.

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 265,800 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 40 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (52,100 MT), the Philippines (50,000 MT), Yemen (45,000 MT), unknown destinations (39,100 MT), Japan (25,200 MT), and Taiwan (20,900 MT). Decreases were reported for Brazil (3,000 MT). Exports of 154,700 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 43 percent from the previous week and 67 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (52,100 MT), Mexico (29,100 MT), Brazil (27,000 MT), Nigeria (18,800 MT), Taiwan (16,000 MT), and Italy (6,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 478,200 MT for 2014/2015 were down 2 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (195,700 MT), Peru (76,500 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (69,100 MT), Colombia (60,200 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (29,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (20,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (12,400 MT) and Japan (2,400 MT). Exports of 444,000 MT were primarily to Mexico (112,600 MT), Japan (95,700 MT), Egypt (54,400 MT), Costa Rica (38,800 MT), Colombia (32,100 MT), Peru (30,000 MT), and Guatemala (19,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,609,900 MT for 2014/2015 were up 28 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (1,604,200 MT, including 557,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 55,000 MT switched from Spain, and decreases of 80,600 MT), Mexico (231,300 MT), the Netherlands (101,900 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from Egypt and 40,500 MT switched from unknown destinations, and decreases of 400 MT), Portugal (73,000 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Vietnam (67,800 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (651,800 MT), Spain (47,000 MT), and Egypt (11,300 MT). Net Sales of 3,200 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan. Exports of 2,915,600 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 64 percent from the previous week and 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (2,292,900 MT), Vietnam (75,600 MT), Portugal (73,000 MT), Mexico (72,200 MT), Spain (68,000 MT), Egypt (66,000 MT), and South Korea (60,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales reductions of 123,700 MT for 2014/2015 resulted as increases for Thailand (104,700 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Colombia (26,500 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from Panama and decreases of 7,300 MT), Poland (25,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Latvia (17,500 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Costa Rica (15,500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (306,800 MT), Panama (15,300 MT), and Mexico (10,100 MT). Net sales of 800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 307,600 MT were reported to Vietnam (51,200 MT), Italy (43,500 MT), Venezuela (32,000 MT), Poland (25,000 MT), and Ireland (22,900 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 13,900 MT for 2014/2015 reported for Jamaica (3,500 MT), Nicaragua (3,200 MT), Peru (2,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,200 MT), Panama (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (2,000 MT). Exports of 9,100 MT were reported to Mexico (3,300 MT), Panama (2,000 MT), Nicaragua (1,800 MT), and Guatemala (1,000 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day 368 ½ .
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3266.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,319,046 open, up 14,185
  • November beans 12,418 open, down 1,750
  • Total beans 657,410 open, up 2,111
  • Total meal 380,730 open, up 3,694
  • Total bean oil 408,481 open, down 1,019
  • Total wheat 419,324 open, down 223
  • Total KC wheat 159,021 open, up 1,329

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting +85 BCF
  • US October unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and ends Thursday Nov 13th rolling long Dec positions into March .
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • China’s October trade balance report comes out on Saturday.
  • Malaysian October palm oil data report comes out on Monday November 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s November 1-10th palm oil exports on Monday November 10th.
  • USDA November crop production report comes out Monday November 10th at 11 am CST see below for estimates for the report
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday November 11thwith their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT
    • Bean crop estimated at 88.83- 92.41 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 48.5 MMT
  • Last trading day for November futures is Nov 14th. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Nov 17th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for December options is 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

USDA November crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Monday November 10th at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.551 BB , range of estimates are 14.242- 14.842 BB. USDA October estimate was 14.475 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.233 BPA, range of estimates are 171.4 – 178.6 BPA. USDA October estimate was 174.2 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.967 BB, range of estimates are 3.903- 4.064 BB. USDA October estimate was 3.927 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.358 BB.
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 47.608 BB, range of estimates are 46.8- 48.7 BPA. USDA October estimate was 47.1 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 44.0 BPA.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .660 BB, range of estimates are .634- .682 BB. USDA October estimate was .654 BB.
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.135 BB, range of estimates are 1.850- 2.282 BB. USDA October  estimate was 2.081 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .442 BB, range of estimates are .403- .513 BB. USDA October estimate was .450 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.53 MMT , range of estimates are 185.00- 186.13 MMT. USDA October estimate was 185.58 MMT
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 173.02 MMT, range of estimates are 172.00- 173.78 MMT . USDA October estimate was 173.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 66.33 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0 – 66.53 MMT. USDA October estimate was 66.49 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.15 MMT, range of estimates are 189.79- 196.40 MMT. USDA October estimate was 192.59 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.77 MMT, range of estimates are 185.60- 194.18 MMT. USDA October estimate was 190.58 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 90.37 MMT, range of estimates are 89.50- 92.55 MMT. USDA October estimate was 90.67 MMT

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE