News From The Grain Floor 11/04/14

Good morning.

 

“Failure is the opportunity to begin again, more intelligently.”

–          Henry Ford

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates from Informa were

  • 2014 US corn crop at 14.395 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield at 176.4 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop at 4.017 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield at 48.5 BPA

 

Today is the first day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Deutsche Bank will be rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn. The roll will end on Monday November 10th.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 13 ¾ at 1016
  • CZ down 6 ¼ at 367 ¼
  • WZ down 5 at 533 ¼
  • KC WZ down 3 ½ at 594
  • MWZ down 5 ½ at 571 ½
  • SMZ down 4.00 at 368.70
  • BOZ down 52 at 3351
  • RRF down 7.50 at 1225.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 18,821
  • CZ 18,284
  • WZ 6,299
  • KC WZ 443
  • MWZ 272
  • SMZ 7,661
  • BOZ 14,634
  • RRF 72

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 lower
  • Corn 5-7 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 45-55 lower
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Stock market higher. Dollar, crude, gold, and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up 2.73%

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai Index unchanged.

 

US midterm elections today.

 

US Sept Trade balance report

  • US September trade deficit $43.03 billion expecting $40 billion vs. August deficit of $39.99
  • US September exports -1.5% vs. August of +.3%
  • US September imports unchanged vs. August of +.1%

 

China grain closings = beans down 18, corn up 3, meal down 72, palm oil down 30, and bean oil down 106.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 28.

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 25 -31st total crush volume at 1,382,150 tons down 5.10% from a week ago
  • For the week Oct 25 -31st total crush capacity utilization at 46.91% down 2.52% from a week ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1st –Oct 31st) crush volume at 59,059,591 tons up 11.69% from a year ago
  • As of October 31st total imported bean stocks at 4.2558 MMT vs. 4.752 M tons a week ago and down 9.57% from a year ago
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.393 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.4 MMT
  • Estimated December bean imports at 6.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.5 MMT
  • Estimated January bean imports at 5.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MMT

 

More than 40% of China’s arable land is suffering from degradation, Xinhua news reported.

 

US farmer selling.

 

Indonesia bought 110,000 tons of Brazilian corn for Jan – Feb shipment

 

Japan seeks 133,521 tons of food wheat from US and Canada for Dec-Jan shipment.

 

Indonesia eyeing South American soymeal for Jan- June shipment

 

Linn Group estimated US 2014 corn production at 14.842 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.881 BB

 

Linn Group estimated US 2014 corn yield at 178.6 BPA vs. previous estimate of 176.9 BPA

 

Linn Group estimated US 2014 bean production at 4.064 BB vs. previous estimate of 4.091 BB

 

Linn Group estimated US 2014 bean yield at 48.7 BPA vs. previous estimate of 48.6 BPA

 

EU lowers import taxes for corn, sorghum, and rye as of today to 4.49 euros per ton from 10.44 euros per ton

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014 canola imports at a record 5.0 MMT up 64% from 2013

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazilian corn planting is 54.4% complete vs. 45.8% a week ago and vs. 76.6% a year ago

 

Somar said cold front to bring widespread rains to southern and central Brazil in the upcoming days.

 

Brazilian weather favorable.

 

There were 175 rice deliveries with the date current

 

There were no soybean deliveries

 

21 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon.

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day is 370
  • Dec wheat 100 day is 543
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day is 594 ¾
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day is 572

 

FC Stone 2014 US crop estimates from yesterday afternoon

  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.783 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.958 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 14.475 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 178.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 178.4 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 174.2 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 4.033 BB vs. previous estimate of 4.066 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 3.927 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 48.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 48.4 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 47.1 BPA

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Harvested65% complete (expecting 60-65% complete) vs. 46% a week ago and vs. 73% five year average
    • IL corn harvest is 77% complete vs. 78% average
    • IA corn harvest is 61% complete vs. 75% average

 

Beans

  • Harvested83% complete (expecting 83-90% complete) vs. 70% a week ago and vs. 83% five year average
    • IL bean harvest is 83% complete vs. 84% average
    • IN bean harvest is 73% complete vs. 84% average
    • OH bean harvest is 72% complete vs. 83% average
    • IA bean harvest is 91% complete vs. 90% average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 59% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting 1% lower to 1% higher than a week ago) and vs. 63% good to excellent a year ago
  • Planted 90% (expecting 87-91%) vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 89% five year average
  • Emerged 77% vs. 67% a week ago and vs. 72% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 48% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • Bolls open 95% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average
  • Harvested 50% vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 51% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,298,782 open, up 10,750
  • November beans 17,885 open, down 5,586
  • Total beans 652,938 open, down 6,757
  • Total meal 371,732 open, up 471
  • Total bean oil 407,357 open, up 1,496
  • Total wheat 418,956 open, up 70
  • Total KC wheat 157,264 open, down 429

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.9 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 2.2 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • US October unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and ends Thursday Nov 13th rolling long Dec positions into March .
  • Malaysian October palm oil data report comes out on Monday November 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s November 1-10th palm oil exports on Monday November 10th.
  • USDA November crop production report comes out Monday November 10th at 11 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday November 11thwith their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT
    • Bean crop estimated at 88.83- 92.41 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 48.5 MMT
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE