News From The Grain Floor 11/03/2014

Good morning.

 

The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.

–          George Bernard Shaw

 

New daily grain price limits started today

  • Corn limit is now .25 cents vs. old limit of .35 cents
  • Bean limit is now .70 cents vs. old limit of $1
  • Wheat limit is now .35 cents vs. old limit of .45 cents
  • KC wheat limit is now .40 cents vs. old limit of .50 cents
  • Bean oil limit is now 250 tics vs. old limit of 300 tics
  • Meal limits now $25 vs. old limit of $30
  • Oat limits unchanged at .25 cents
  • Rice limit is now .90 cents vs. old limit of $1.10

 

FC Stone comes out today about 3 pm CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. FC Stone’s previous estimates were

  • 2014 US corn crop at 14.958 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield at 178.4 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop at 4.066 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield at 48.4 BPA

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Egypt GASC bought 60,000 tons of French wheat for December shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 10 at 1039 ¼
  • CZ down 3 ¾ at 373
  • WZ down 4 ¼ at 528 ¼
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 591 ½
  • MWZ down 3 ½ at 570 ¾
  • SMZ down 5.00 at 384.00
  • BOZ down 11 at 3469
  • RRF unchanged at 1227.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 19,993
  • CZ 16,863
  • WZ 7,662
  • KC WZ 796
  • MWZ 221
  • SMZ 4,839
  • BOZ 8,261
  • RRF 112

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-11 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 4.50-5.50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-15 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Stock market, dollar, and crude oil higher. Gold and silver lower.

 

Japan markets are closed today for holiday.

 

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai index up .5%

 

Today is the beginning of a new month.

 

Final October manufacturing PMIs

  • China’s HSBC final PMI at 50.4 (3 month high) vs. flash of 50.4 and vs. September final of 50.2
  • France final PMI at 48.5 vs. flash of 47.3 and vs. September final of 48.8
  • German final PMI at 51.4 vs. flash of 51.8 and vs. September final of 49.9
  • Eurozone final PMI at 50.6 vs. flash of 50.7 and vs. September final of 50.3

 

China grain closings = beans up 19, corn unchanged, meal down 2, palm oil up 40, and bean oil up 40.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 30.

 

Tunisia bought 150,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for March-May shipment

 

Egypt seeks 120,000 tons of bean oil and 120,000 tons of sunflower oil for Jan-April shipment.

 

Israel seeks 145,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan- March shipment

 

Another Israel group seeks 90,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan-March shipment

 

Israel seeks 25,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Israel seeks 20,000 tons of optional origin sorghum for Feb shipment

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Board estimated 2015 palm oil output at 31.5 MMT vs. 2014 output of 29.5 MMT

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Board estimated 2015 domestic biodiesel demand at 2.8 MMT vs. 1.8 MMT in 2014

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global bean crop at 308.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 305.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 284.9 MMT

  • Oil World estimated US ‘14/15 bean crop at 106.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 101.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 91.4 MMT
  • Oil World estimated Brazilian bean crop at 89.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 bean crop of 86.1 MMT
  • Oil World estimated Argentina bean crop at 54.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 56.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 54.0 MMT
  • Oil World estimated Paraguay bean crop at 9.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 9.0 MMT
  • Oil World estimated China’s bean crop at 11.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 12.2 MMT
  • Oil World estimated India’s bean crop at 10.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 8.8 MMT

 

COPA said for the week ending Oct 29th Canadian crushers crushed 132,987 tons of canola down 10.8% from a week ago

 

COPA said for the week ending Oct 29th Canadian crushers crushed 47,179 tons of soybeans down 2.7% from a week ago

 

IMEA said as of October 31st Mato Grosso, Brazil bean planting is 40.5% complete vs. 20.1% a week ago vs. 71.7% a year ago and vs. 54.9% average

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday Brazilian bean planting is 22% complete vs. 44% a year ago and vs. 46% average.

  • Some analysts were expecting Brazilian bean planting to be 30-35% complete

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Mato Grosso’s bean planting is 35% complete vs. 70% a year ago and vs. 67% average

 

Macquarie estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 61.5 MMT

 

Macquarie estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 54.0 MMT

 

CME to lower corn futures initial margins for speculators by 20% to $1,100 per contract from $1,375 after close today

 

Favorable South American weather

 

Somar said good rain coverage over Brazil’s main bean and corn areas over the weekend

 

Favorable US Midwest harvest weather

 

20 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Sunrise Co-op Galion OH. There are a total of 314 wheat receipts now registered.

 

240 new rice receipts were registered Friday afternoon.

 

384 rice deliveries with the date current

 

No bean deliveries

 

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll. They have been rolling long Dec positions into March.

 

Moving averages

  • Jan bean 100 day 1052 ½
  • Dec corn 100 day 370 ¾
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 595 ½
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 572 ½
  • Dec bean oil 100 day 3487

 

The weekly COT report from Friday showed the following net changes in the large spec positions (futures only):

  • Wheat bot 11,800, now 34,900 short
  • Corn bot 29,000, now 155,300 long
  • Beans sold 7,400, now 700 short
  • Meal bot 17,200, now 67,700 long
  • Oil bot 12,700, now 59,900 long

 

Managed money category (futures and options):

  • Wheat bot 7,800, now 43,300 short
  • Corn bot 14,800, now 141,800 long
  • Beans bot 24,700, now 8,400 long
  • Meal bot 8,100, now 45,600 long
  • Oil bot 9,800, now 13,700 long

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,289,260 open, up 10,732
  • November beans 23,497 open, down 8,541
  • Total beans 659,450 open, down 2,257
  • Total meal 371,840 open, up 5,103
  • Total bean oil 405,879 open, up 1,135
  • Total wheat 418,685 open, down 2,741
  • Total KC wheat 157,703 open, up 310

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections come out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Bean harvest 83-90% complete
    • Corn harvest 60-65% complete
    • Winter wheat condition good to excellent 1% lower to 1% higher from a week ago
  • US trade balance report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins tomorrow November 4th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Informa comes out later this week with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop at 14.395 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield at 176.4 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop at 4.017 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield at 48.5 BPA
  • US October unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and ends Thursday Nov 13th rolling long Dec positions into March .
  • USDA November crop production report comes out Monday November 10th at 11 am CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE