News From The Grain Floor 10/31/14

If human beings had genuine courage, they’d wear their costumes every day of the year, not just on Halloween.

–          Douglas Coupland

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Today is month end.

 

Today is first notice day for November futures. There were no bean deliveries, as expected. There were 345 rice deliveries with the date current.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 5 at 1024 ¾
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 371 ¾
  • WZ down 5 ¾ at 530 ¼
  • KC WZ down 5 ¾ at 596 ¼
  • MWZ down 5 ¼ at 572 ½
  • SMZ down .80 at 379.20
  • BOZ up 3 at 3434
  • RRF down 10 at 1213

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 24,099
  • CZ 13,928
  • WZ 8,143
  • KC WZ 677
  • MWZ 184
  • SMZ 7,267
  • BOZ 12,578
  • RRF 245

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice 7-10 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up 4.83%

Hang Seng up 1.3%

Shanghai index up 1.6%

 

China grain market closings = beans up 65, corn down 11, meal down 18, palm oil up 8, and bean oil up 12.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 11

 

Thailand bought 340,000 tons of soymeal this week .

  • 60,000 from US for March shipment
  • 60,000 from Argentina for January shipment
  • 60,000 from Argentina for April shipment
  • 60,000 from Argentina for May shipment
  • 100,000 from Argentina for June shipment

 

Thailand bought 20,000 tons of Argentine soybeans for June shipment this week

 

South Korea Daehan Flour Mills bought 26,100 tons of US wheat for March/April shipment

 

India imported 12,000 tons of Australian wheat

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s October palm oil exports at 1,463,982 tons down 2.0% from September

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s October palm oil exports at 1,468,105 tons down 2% from September

 

Indonesia to keep crude palm oil export tax at zero in November.

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop report

  • Bean planting 4% complete vs. 2% a week ago
  • Estimated Argentina’s bean planting area at 20.6 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 35.6% complete vs. 32.8% a week ago and vs. 34.8% a year ago
  • Corn planting area is estimated at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower planting is 51.1% complete vs. 40.5% a week ago and vs. 61.4% a year ago
  • Sunflower planting area is estimated at 1.35 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Wheat harvest is 5.2% complete vs. 2.3% a week ago and vs. 1.5% a year ago
  • Wheat crop is estimated at 11.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Argentina Ag Min said as of 10/22/14 Argentine farmers have sold 74.58% of their ‘13/14 wheat crop vs. 100% a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min said as of 10/22/14 Argentine farmers have sold 81.95% of their ‘13/14 corn crop vs. 79.88% a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min said as of 10/22/14 Argentina farmers have sold 65.62% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 75.35% a year ago

 

Rabobank first half of 2015 bean price forecast at $9.50 – $9.75

 

Rabobank second half of 2015 bean price forecast at or below $9.00

 

12 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon. Total rice receipts remaining = 434

 

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. Rogers roll ends on Monday. They are rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March.

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day 371 ½
  • Dec wheat 100 day 544 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 596 ½
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 574 ¼
  • Dec bean oil 100 day 3491
  • Jan bean 100 day 1054

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans sold 9K
  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Meal sold 6K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

Corn:

FCS sold 1500 Z 390 calls/bot 480 CZ

Bache bot 4000 H 400 calls/sold 8000 H 340 puts

ICAP bot 2500 H 400-430 call spreads

ICAP sold 500 Z 365-375 call spreads

JPM sold 1000 Z 380-420 call spreads

Rand bot 500 Z 365-350 put spreads/sold 500 Z 400 calls

Drax bot 500 H 330 puts

 

Beans:

ADM or Dowd (hearing two versions) sold 6000 H 1060 puts/sold 3120 SH

Rand bot 2000 F 1020-920 put spreads

Bunge bot 5000 N 960-920 put spreads

Bache bot 1500 F 1040-920 put spreads

Bache bot 600 F 980-940 put spreads/bot 72 SF

Bache sold 500 H 1000 straddles

Drax sold 1000 Z 980 puts/1100 call strangles

Tenco bot 1000 F 1050 calls/sold 1000 K 1140 calls

Tenco bot 1500 F 1090-920 put spreads

Man bot 500 F 1000 puts/bot 155 SF

Macquarie bot 500 X’15 1000-880 put spreads/bot 110 SX’15

Goldman bot 500 Z 1000-950 put spreads

Rosenthal bot 500 N 980-940 put spreads

Rosenthal bot 400 N 1000-900 put spreads

ADM bot 900 K calls various strikes of 1080, 1120, 1140 and 1160

 

Wheat:

JPM bot 1000 H 560-590 call spreads

JPM bot 1800 H 560-590 call spreads covered

JPM sold 1400 Z 560-590 call spreads

JPM bot 800 Z 560 calls

JPM sold 800 H 530 puts/sold 296 WH

JPM bot 1400 Z 590 calls/bot 1400 Z 560 calls/sold 1400 Z 540 calls

 

Oil:

Rosenthal sold 1500 Z 33-34 call spreads

JPM bot 1600 Z 37 calls

Drax sold 500 Z 34 calls

FI sold 750 Z 33-34 call spreads

FI sold 300 H 34 ½ calls

Rosenthal sold 500 Z 34 calls

Rosenthal bot 200 F 34-32 put spreads/sold 200 F 36 calls

FCS bot 400 Z 35-36 call spreads

New Edge bot 400 Z 34 ½ calls/sold 400 F 36 calls

RJO bot 400 Z 36 puts

 

Meal:

Rand sold 700 F 400 calls

ICAP bot 600 Z 420 calls

ICAP bot 400 F 350 puts

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,278,447 open, up 2,541
  • Total beans 662,028 open, down 23,176
  • Total meal 366,861 open, up 519
  • Total bean oil 404,780 open, down 124
  • Total wheat 421,404 open, down 2,657
  • Total KC wheat 157,393 open, down 2,223

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • CME daily grain price limits set to decline on Sunday November 2nd. See link
  • Weekly US export inspections come out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Tuesday November 4th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn.
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Nov 7th and ends Nov 13th rolling long Dec positions into March .
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE