News From The Grain Floor 10/28/14

Good morning.

 

It is not necessary to understand things in order to argue about them.

–          Pierre Beaumarchais

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 14 ¼ at 1027 – Range overnight 1006 ½ – 1041
  • CZ up 6 at 369 – Range overnight 362 ¼ -371
  • WZ up 7 ¾ at 530 ½ – Range overnight 523 ¼ – 531
  • KC WZ up 7 ¾ at 602 ½ – Range overnight 595 ¼ – 602 ½
  • MWZ up 6 ¼ at 578 – Range overnight 571 – 579 ½
  • SMZ up 13.00 at 389.80 – Range overnight 375.40 – 399.80
  • BOZ up 37 at 3260 – Range overnight 3216 – 3270
  • RRF down 47.50 at 1200 – Range overnight 1137.50 – 1253

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 45,075
  • CZ 39,107
  • WZ 5,659
  • KC WZ 976
  • MWZ 288
  • SMZ 19,705
  • BOZ 12,222
  • RRF 504

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-20 higher
  • Corn 5-7 higher
  • Wheat 7-10 higher
  • KC wheat 7-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal 12.00 – 14.00 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice 40-50 lower

 

Dollar lower. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .38%

Hang Seng up 1.6%

Shanghai Index up 2.1%

 

FOMC two day policy meeting begins today. Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon at 1 pm CST.

 

China grain market closings – beans up 14, corn up 7, meal up 73, palm oil down 18, and bean oil unchanged

 

Malaysian palm oil up 46

 

Malaysia to impose 7% palm biodiesel blend in stages from November 2014 –Reuters

 

Kuala Lumpur Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar in Kuala Lumpur today and tomorrow.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 18- Oct 24th total crush volume nationwide at 1,456,450 tons down 1.20% from a week ago
  • For the week Oct 18- Oct 24th total crush capacity utilization at 49.43% down .6% from a week ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1- Oct 24th) crush volume at 57,677,441 tons up 11.94% from a year ago
  • As of Oct 24th total imported bean stocks at 4.752 MMT vs. 5.321 MMT a week ago and up 3.60% from a year ago
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.393 MMT
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.4 MMT
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.5 MMT
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.6 MMT

 

Meal leading rally again this morning.

  • Yesterday meal posted biggest gain among the 22 raw materials in the Bloomberg Commodity Index followed by soybeans
  • Meal supplies remain tight
  • Poor rail logistics continue east of the Mississippi River
  • Domestic meal basis very strong yesterday = IL +55Z
  • More talk/reports of US meal cargoes being switched to South America

 

India bean futures trading at highest level in 6 weeks

 

India is considering raising import duties on edible oils

 

Safras E Mercado said Brazil has planted 12.5% of their bean crop vs. 26% a year ago and vs. 31% average

 

Safras e Mercado said Mato Grosso has planted 16% of their bean crop vs. 48% a year ago and vs. 48% average

 

Iran bought 60,000 tons of Black Sea origin barley for November shipment

 

Taiwan bought 41,250 tons of US wheat for Dec/Jan shipment

 

Rabobank estimated Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.5 MMT

 

Some analysts estimating Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 22.0-23.0 MMT vs. official estimate of 24.23 MMT in September

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 11.24 MMT of grain between July 1st – Oct 27th vs. about 9.0 MMT a year ago

 

Russian Ag Min said as of 10/27/14 Russia has harvested 107.3 MMT of grain on 42.9 MH with an average yield of 2.5 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 90.9 MMT of grain on 41.0 MH with an average yield of 2.22 TPH

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia has exported 14.028 MMT of grain between July 1 – Oct 22nd up 33.3% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan has harvested 16.2 MMT of grain , 87.5% of total area as of Oct 27th

 

Kazakhstan officials estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 8.0 MMT vs. 8.7 MMT in ‘13/14

 

50 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Sunrise Cooperative Inc. Clyde OH. Total wheat receipts registered = 334

 

75 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA. Total bean oil receipts registered = 4,105

 

Improved weather in South America

 

Good harvest weather in US

 

Moving averages

  • Dec corn 100 day 373 ½
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 576 ¾
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 597 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 3256

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.

 

Corn

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 62% good to excellent a year ago
  • Mature 96% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average
  • Harvested 46% (expecting 40-45% complete) vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 65% five year average

 

Beans

  • Harvested 70% complete (expecting 65-75% complete) vs. 53% a week ago and vs. 76% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 59% good to excellent (expecting 65% good to excellent) vs. 61% good to excellent a year ago
  • Planted 84% vs. 76% a week ago and vs. 84% five year average
  • Emerged 67% vs. 56% a week ago and vs. 62% five year average

 

Rice

  • Harvested 96% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 84% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 48% good to excellent vs. 47% good to excellent a week ago and vs. 44% good to excellent a year ago
  • Bolls open 91% vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Harvested 42% vs. 29% a week ago and vs. 41% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,275,622 open, down 5,870
  • Total beans 710,558 open, down 5,482
  • Total meal 362,969 open, up 5,071
  • Total bean oil 400,715 open, up 6,163
  • Total wheat 425,876 open, up 2,199
  • Total KC wheat 160,165 open, down 260

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.8 MB
    • Gas a draw of 700,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 1.45 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.
  • Thursday is position day for November bean and rice futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close on this day, or risk delivery
  • Rogers roll begins on Thursday and ends Monday. Rolling long Dec positions into March
  • First notice day for November futures is Friday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s October palm oil exports on Friday
  • CME daily grain price limits set to decline on Sunday November 2nd. See link
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Tuesday November 4th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn.
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Nov 7th and ends Nov 13th rolling long Dec positions into March .
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE