News From The Grain Floor 10/27/14

Good morning.

 

“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

~ Winston Churchill

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 110,500 tons of beans sold to unknown destinations for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 7 ¾ at 975 ½
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 350 ¾
  • WZ down 2 at 515 ¾
  • KC WZ down 1 ¼ at 592 ½
  • MWZ down 1 ½ at 565 ½
  • SMZ down 3.90 at 346.30
  • BOZ down 15 at 3224
  • RRF up 3 at 1266

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 21,082
  • CZ 11,816
  • WZ 6,612
  • KC WZ 571
  • MWZ 144
  • SMZ 3,917
  • BOZ 2,710
  • RRF 29

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-9 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Silver higher. Gold, crude, stock market and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei up .63%

Hang Seng down .7%

Shanghai index down .5%

 

Leftist President Rousseff narrowly wins second term in Brazil.

 

China grain closings = beans down 39, corn unchanged, meal down 29, palm oil down 30 and bean oil down 86.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 16

 

AgRural said on Friday that 16% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 34% a year ago

 

Reports on Friday that 2 cargoes of UK feed wheat moving into US east coast

 

MARS estimated 2014 EU soft wheat yield at 5.87 TPH vs. 5.82 TPH a year ago

 

MARS estimated 2014 EU corn yield at 7.59 TPH vs. 6.75 TPH a year ago

 

Good rains in Brazil over the weekend

 

Good harvest weather in US over the weekend and into this week, yield still good.

 

Argentina a bit dry.

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentina crop report from Thursday afternoon.

  • Estimated ‘14/15 bean planting area at 20.6 MH (record) vs. 20.35 MH a year ago
  • Said that 2% of the Argentine bean crop has been planted
  • Estimated ‘14/15 corn planting area at 3.0 MH
  • Said that 32.8% of the corn area is planted vs. 30% a week ago and vs. 26.8% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 sunflower area at 1.35 MH
  • Said that 40.5% of the sunflower crop has been planted vs. 26.5% a week ago and vs. 46.6% a year ago
  • Said wheat harvest is 2.4% complete vs. 1% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 11.5 MMT vs. 10.1 MMT a year ago
  • Said average wheat yield is 11.2 TPH

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,281,149 open, down 8,700
  • Total beans 754,268 open, down 34,429
  • Total meal 359,968 open, down 1,203
  • Total bean oil 394,724 open, down 256
  • Total wheat 422,537 open, up 62
  • Total KC wheat 160,533 open, up 2,587

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Bean harvest expecting 65-75% complete
    • Corn harvest expecting 40-45% complete
    • First winter wheat condition comes out today expecting 65% good to excellent unchanged from a year ago
  • FOMC two day policy meeting begins tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday at 1 pm CST.
  • Thursday is position day for November bean and rice futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close on this day, or risk delivery
  • Rogers roll begins on Thursday and ends Monday. Rolling long Dec positions into March
  • First notice day for November futures is Friday
  • CME daily grain price limits set to decline on Sunday November 2nd. See link
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Tuesday November 4th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn.
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Nov 7th and ends Nov 13th rolling long Dec positions into March .
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE