News From The Grain Floor 10/24/14

Good morning.

 

It’s never just a game when you’re winning.

–          George Carlin

 

USDA announced 101,600 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

November options expire today at 1:15 pm CST.

Open interest in bean options

  • Nov bean 960 calls 10,587 open
  • Nov bean 960 puts 10,468 open
  • Nov bean 970 calls 4,321 open
  • Nov bean 970 puts 3,707 open
  • Nov bean 980 calls 10,226 open
  • Nov bean 980 puts 9,250 open
  • Nov bean 990 calls 3,469 open
  • Nov bean 990 puts 1,813 open
  • Nov bean 1000 calls 11,194 open
  • Nov bean 1000 puts 17,086 open
  • Nov bean 1010 calls 2,295 open
  • Nov bean 1010 puts 1,543 open
  • Nov bean 1020 calls 6,784 open
  • Nov bean 1020 puts 8,069 open

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ¾ at 997
  • SF up 4 at 1004
  • CZ up 3 ¾ at 363 ½
  • WZ up 9 at 535 ¾
  • KC WZ up 6 ¼ at 611 ½
  • MWZ up 7 ¼ at 578 ¼
  • SMZ up 4.20 at 356.60
  • BOZ up 3 at 3270
  • RRF up 1.50 at 1261

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 31,740
  • SF 26,567
  • CZ 20,318
  • WZ 8,425
  • KC WZ 757
  • MWZ 372
  • SMZ 7,840
  • BOZ 7,602
  • RRF 104

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 7-10 higher
  • KC wheat 6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal 4.00-5.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Gold and silver higher. Crude, dollar, and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei up 1.01%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index down .2%

 

China grain closings = beans up 48, corn up 8, meal up 74, palm oil up 16, and bean oil up 50

 

Malaysian palm oil up 11.

 

Pakistan bought 80,000 tons of meal from Brazil for April – May shipment over the past 2 weeks

 

Talk/report continue that 400-500,000 tons of  US meal will be canceled or switched to South American origin.

 

Argentine Ag Ministry ‘14/15 estimates

  • Argentina ‘14/15 bean planting area estimated at 20.3 MH vs. 19.8 MH a year ago
  • Argentina ‘14/15 corn planting area estimated at 5.5 MH vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MH
  • Argentina ‘14/15 wheat planting area estimated at 4.6 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MH

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 wheat crop at below 50.0 MMT due to dry weather

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at below 90.0 MMT due to dry weather

 

Concerns about vomatoxin on Canadian and US spring wheat supplies

 

70 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA. Total receipts registered at 4,192

 

US farmer selling beans and corn yesterday

 

Argentine farmers selling old crop soybeans yesterday

 

Brazil farmers selling new crop beans yesterday

 

Favorable US harvest weather

 

Light rains in Brazil with more rains in forecast

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,289,853 open, down 2,552
  • Total beans 784,549 open, down 694
  • Total meal 361,309 open, up 4,704
  • Total bean oil 394,981 open, down 969
  • Total wheat 422,438 open, up 3,372
  • Total KC wheat 158,169 open, up 1,363

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT supplemental report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports on Monday.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting begins Tuesday Oct 28th
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday Oct 29th at 1 pm CST.
  • Thursday October 30th is position day for November bean and rice futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close on this day, or risk delivery
  • First notice day for November futures is October 31st
  • CME daily grain price limits set to decline on Sunday November 2nd. See link
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Tuesday November 4th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE