News From The Grain Floor 10/22/14

Good morning

 

Those who agree with us may not be right, but we admire their astuteness.

–          Cullen Hightower

 

USDA announced 419,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 113,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 12 ¼ at 976 ½
  • SF up 12 ¼ at 984
  • CZ up 2 at 358
  • WZ up 3 ¾ at 523
  • KC WZ up 3 ¼ at 605 ½
  • MWZ up 4 at 573
  • SMZ up 8.20 at 351.10
  • BOZ up 36 at 3212
  • RRF down .50 at 1271

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 31,108
  • SF 19,054
  • CZ 32,510
  • WZ 7,393
  • KC WZ 810
  • MWZ 170
  • SMZ 14,590
  • BOZ 14,706
  • RRF 111

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 7.50-8.50 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice steady easier

 

Dollar, stock market, and crude oil higher. Gold and silver lower

 

Nikkei up 2.64%

Hang Seng up 1.4%

Shanghai Index down .6%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 1.2 MB expecting a build of 2.7 MB
  • Gas a draw of 532,000 barrels expecting a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 822,000 barrels expecting a draw of 1.3 MB

 

China grain closings = beans up 4, corn down 5, meal up 20, palm oil down 6, and bean oil up 16

 

Malaysian markets closed today for holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow.

 

Hearing China bought a US bean cargo off the Gulf on Monday or Tuesday for November shipment and bought 2+ cargoes of US beans for January shipment

 

Hearing China’s SinoGrain bought 1 Argentine bean cargo for June-July shipment

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 60,000 tons of Brazilian corn for Dec shipment

 

Iraq seeks 10,000 tons of sunflower oil , any origin except for China

 

Hearing China eyeing Brazilian beans for April –May shipment

 

Soymeal led rally.

 

Soymeal basis strong

 

Talk/reports of soymeal protein quality problems

 

Reports US crushers may be struggling to crush new beans fast enough to meet meal demand

 

Reports EU meal buyers are 85-90% covered on soymeal for Nov-Dec shipment, 60% covered for Jan shipment , and 35% covered for Feb forward shipment

 

Reports Asian meal buyers are mostly covered through December

 

Slow US soybean farmer selling

 

Favorable harvest weather in US Midwest next 5 days

 

Dry today and tomorrow in Brazil bean areas. Rains in forecast for Friday and in extended forecast

 

No receipt registration changes yesterday afternoon

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – China’s September imports

  • Wheat = 133,647 tons down 81.4% from a year ago
  • Barley = 757,116 tons up 124.94% from a year ago
  • Corn = 20,468 tons up 1231% from a year ago
  • Rice = 180,003 tons up 26.17% from a year ago
  • Beans = 5,027,673 tons up 6.99% from a year ago
    • From Brazil = 3,368,981 tons down 7.61% from a year ago
    • From Argentina = 979,684 tons up 68.7% from a year ago
    • From the US = 0 unchanged from a year ago
    • Rapeseed = 494,719 tons up 112.49% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed oil = 20,410 tons down 73.93% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed meal = 24,884 tons down 22.9% from a year ago
    • Bean oil = 176,063 tons up 84.32% from a year ago
    • Soymeal = 500 tons unchanged from a year ago
    • Palm oil = 290,641 tons down 37.95% from a year ago

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – China’s January -September 2014 imports

  • Wheat = 2,840,286 tons down .06% from a year ago
  • Barley = 4,274,672 tons up 148.67% from a year ago
  • Corn = 1,617,564 tons up .67% from a year ago
  • Rice = 1,826,490 tons up 6.51% from a year ago
  • Beans = 52,741,053 tons up 15.27% from a year ago
    • From Brazil = 28,656,855 tons up 4.04% from a year ago
    • From Argentina = 4,604,070 tons up 28.32% from a year ago
    • From the US 17,327,337 tons up 38.35% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed = 3,906,229 tons up 54.82% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed oil = 636,205 tons down 49.54% from a year ago
    • Rapeseed meal = 238,833 tons up 370.48% from a year ago
    • Bean oil = 988,575 tons up 24.71% from a year ago
    • Soymeal = 16,155 tons up 20.71% from a year ago
    • Palm oil = 3,935,285 tons down 9.36% from a year ago

 

Moving averages

  • Nov bean 50 day 980 ¼
  • Jan bean 50 day 988 ¼
  • Dec corn 50 day 347 ½
  • Dec corn 100 day 377 ¼
  • Dec wheat 50 day 517
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 600 ¼
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 580 ½
  • Dec oil 50 day 3266
  • Dec meal 100 day 348.60
  • Dec meal 200 day 359.40

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,296,024 open, up 5,573
  • Total beans 797,198 open, down 8,291
  • Total meal 361,784 open, down 2,662
  • Total bean oil 396,110 open, up 1,412
  • Total wheat 415,383 open, up 4,990
  • Total KC wheat 154,412 open, down 795

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.0 MB
    • Gas  a draw of 1.45 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 1.3 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • November options expire Friday at 115 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports on Monday Oct 27th
  • CME daily grain price limits set to decline on Sunday November 2nd. See link

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE