News From The Grain Floor 09/09/14

Good morning

 

We live in the land of the free only because of the brave.

–          Stuart Margel

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ½ at 1003
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 345 ½
  • WZ down 4 ¼ at 529 ¼
  • KC WZ down 3 ½ at 625 ½
  • MWZ down 2 ¼ at 608 ½
  • SMZ down .30 at 342.10
  • BOZ down 20 at 3194
  • RRX unchanged at 1244.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,553
  • CZ 12,175
  • WZ 4,347
  • KC WZ 576
  • MWZ 455
  • SMZ 4,208
  • BOZ 6,962
  • RRX 10

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal steady to .50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Stock market lower. Crude, gold, silver, and dollar higher.

 

Nikkei up .28%

Hang Seng down .20%

Shanghai index unchanged

 

China grain closings = beans down 1, corn unchanged, meal down 6, palm oil down 28, and bean oil down 30

 

Malaysian palm oil down 11.

 

Israel bought 80,000 tons of Ukrainian corn

 

Israel bought 50,000 tons of Ukrainian feed wheat

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 30,000 tons of sunflower oil for Oct – Nov shipment

 

Japan seeks 109,800 tons of food wheat for Oct Nov shipment. Breakdown

  • 26,030 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 25,611 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 29,379 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 28,780 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Chinese industry analyst – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Aug 30-Sept 5 total crush volume at 1,279,100 tons down 15.46% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 30-Sept 5 total crush capacity utilization at 43.41% down 7.95% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 – Sept 5, 2014) crush volume at 66,540,138 tons up 16.45% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – Sept 5, 2014) crush volume at 47,955,341 tons up 14.13% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 5th total imported bean stocks at 6.3291 MMT vs. 6.4361 MMT a week ago and up 2.31% from a year ago
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.998 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.2 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

CONAB came out this morning with their ‘13/14 Brazilian final crop estimates. CONAB will not estimate ‘14/15 Brazilian crops until their next report on Oct 9th

  • Bean crop at 86.12 MMT vs. previous estimate of 85.7 MMT
  • Corn crop at 79.91 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.55 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop at 7.67 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 7.50 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Sept 8th Ukraine has harvested 36.3 MMT of grain on 10.0 MH with an average yield of 3.63 TPH a year ago Ukraine harvested 32.7 MMT of grain on 10.4 MH with an average yield of 2.16 TPH

 

Russia Ag Min said as of Sept 8th Russia harvested 81.6 MMT of grain on 30.0 MH with an average yield of 2.72 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 67.4 MMT of grain on 29.4 MH with an average yield of 2.29 TPH

 

Concerns over potential frost damage have eased

 

175 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon. Total registered is 4,946 (lowest in 9 years)

  • 90 out of Solae Gibson City IL
  • 3 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD
  • 3 out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL
  • 40 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 39 out of Ag Processing Omaha NE

 

133 new KC wheat receipts registered yesterday afternoon out of Scoular Salina KS Total registered now at 933

 

50 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Sunrise Coop Clyde OH. 434 total receipts registered

 

6 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . 0 registered

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 88 with a date at 9/04/14
    • House Term issued 6
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 3
    • KC wheat 133 with the date at 9/03/14
      • House Term stopped 54
      • House ADM stopped 74
      • Wheat 50 with the date at 8/13/14

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 74% good to excellent (record high for the week) unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 54% good to excellent a year ago
  • Doughing 95% vs. 90% a week ago vs. 94% five year average
  • Dented 69% vs. 53% a week ago and vs. 74% five year average
  • Mature 15% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 26% five year average

 

Corn harvest by state

 

This week            Last week            Last year              Average

TX                           57%                        55%                        60%                        58%

LA                           82%                        67%                        96%                        97%

MS                         61%                        42%                        56%                        79%

GA                          87%                        74%                        67%                        77%

SC                           81%                        63%                        50%                        69%

AR                          36%                        19%                        40%                        65%

AL                           31%                        21%                        15%                        31%

KS                           12%                        7%                          3%                          16%

TN                          8%                          2%                          9%                          32%

KY                           8%                          NA                          1%                          21%

MO                        6%                          1%                          3%                          18%

IL                             1%                          NA                          NA                          6%

 

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 72% good to excellent (record high for the week)  unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 52% a year ago
  • Dropping leaves 12% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 17% five year average

 

Bean harvest by state

This week               Last week               Last year                Average

TX                           30%                        21%                        36%                        42%

LA                           34%                        23%                        19%                        33%

MS                         17%                        9%                          0%                          20%

AR                          5%                          NA                          4%                          9%

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 60 % good to excellent down 3% from a week ago (expecting down 1-2% from a week ago)
  • Harvested 58% (expecting 41-45% complete) vs. 38% a week ago and vs. 78% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Planting 3% vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 4% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 71% a year ago
  • Harvested 26% vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 36% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 49% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 45% a year ago
  • Bolls opening 39% vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 37% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Sept corn 3,739 open, down 497
  • Total corn 1,221,742 open, down 3,304
  • Sept beans 238 open, down 87
  • Total beans 688,826 open, up 2,018
  • Sept meal 1,523 open, down 526
  • Total meal 336,968 open, down 1,611
  • Sept bean oil 173 open, down 301
  • Total bean oil 367,803 open, up 1,147
  • Sept wheat 648 open, down 283
  • Total wheat 390,606 open, down 209
  • Sept KC wheat 226 open, down 71
  • Total KC wheat 136,858 open, down 618

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their Malaysian August palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting,
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.96 MMT (seven month high) in July palm oil stocks were 1.681 MMT.
    • Palm oil output average estimate is 1.92 MMT in July palm oil output was 1.666 MMT.
    • Palm oil exports average estimate is 1.35 MMT in July palm oil exports were 1.447 MMT
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas unchanged
    • Distillates a build of 100,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Sept futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th
  • FSA acreage certification stats comes out on September 15th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE