News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 8/01/2014

News:

 

Linn Group 2014 US crop estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 14.518 BB (record) vs. USDA estimate of 13.860 BB
  • Corn yield estimated at 172.8 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA
  • Bean crop estimated at 3.849 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.8 BB
  • Bean yield estimated at 45.8 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA

 

Doane 2014 US crop estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 14.4 BB
  • Corn yield estimated at 172.3 BPA
  • Soybean crop estimated at 3.86 BB
  • Soybean yield estimated at 45.9 BPA

 

Brazil Trade Minister – Brazil’s July exports

  • Beans 6.04 MMT vs. 6.89 MMT a month ago and vs. 5.66 MMT a year ago
  • Soymeal 1.25 MMT vs. 1.68 MMT a month ago
  • Bean oil 131,100 tons vs. 135,200 tons a month ago and vs. 109,900 tons a year ago
  • Corn 591,700 tons vs. 87,600 tons a month ago and vs. 733,300 tons a year ago

 

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘14/15 total oilseed production at 56.8 MMT down 3.3% from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 58.7 MMT

 

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘13/14 soybean imports at 68.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘14/15 soybean imports at 72.0 MMT

 

COPA said for the week ending July 31st Canada crushed 169,707 tons of canola vs. 155,723 tons a week ago

 

COPA said for the week ending July 31st Canada crushed 24,748 tons of soybeans vs. 21,474 tons a week ago

 

Tunisia bought 184,000 tons of soft milling wheat optional origin for Sept-Nov shipment

 

Tunisia bought 125,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for Sept-Nov shipment

 

Brazilian Ag Min said Brazilian farmers facing low corn prices could see some government subsidies later this month – Reuters

 

Valero is buying corn to restart Mount Vernon, Indiana ethanol plant

 

India’s government data showed that India’s water reservoirs at 46% of capacity in the past week vs. 61% a year ago

 

India’s Ag Min planting progress June 1st  – July 31st

  • Rice crop planted on 22.17 MH vs. 23.79 MH a year ago and vs. 24.06 MH average
  • Corn crop planted on 5.79 MH vs. 7.48 MH a year ago and vs. 6.76 MH average
  • Oilseed crop planted on 13.74 MH vs. 16.97 MH a year ago and vs. 14.87 MH average
  • Soybean planted on 9.54 MH vs. 11.74 MH a year ago and vs. 9.86 MH average

 

Japan seeks 154,245 tons of food wheat for Sept –Oct shipment. Breakdown

  • 15,060 tons of US western white wheat
  • 47,800 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 57,775 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 33,610 tons of Australian white wheat

 

FranceAgriMer – France weekly crop progress report , as of July 28th

  • Soft wheat harvest 76% complete vs. 44% a week ago and vs. 26% a year ago
  • Spring barley harvest 67% complete vs. 15% a week ago
  • Winter barley harvest is complete.
  • Durum wheat harvest is 91% complete vs. 69% a week ago

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 361 ½ .

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low today of 3569.

 

Nov beans low of day was 1056, a penny off the contract low of 1055

 

Dec meal low of the day was 341.10 , $1.10 off the contract low of 340.00

 

Weekly COT supplemental report came out today at 230 pm CST. Large spec positions as of July 29th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 88,129
  • KC wheat short 4,688
  • Corn short 20,554
  • Beans short 53,266
  • Meal long 8,799
  • Bean oil short 17,116

 

Today was the last day of the Rogers roll. In the last minute of trade

  • Sept/Dec corn 600 spreads traded in the pit at -10
  • Sept/Dec corn 9,770 spreads traded electronically at -10 to -9 ½
  • Sept/Dec Chicago wheat 152 spreads traded in the pit at -19
  • Sept/Dec Chicago wheat 4,427 spreads traded electronically at -19 ¼ to -18 ¾
  • Sept/Dec KC wheat 28 spreads traded in the pit at -11
  • Sept/Dec KC wheat 1,112 spreads traded electronically at -11 ¼ to -10 ½

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn sold 7K
  • Beans sold 7K
  • Meal sold 3K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Surveyor SGS will estimate Malaysia’s July palm oil exports on Monday morning.
  • Weekly US export inspections come out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • FC Stone comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST with their US crop production estimates
  • Hearing Informa comes out on Tuesday at 1030 am CST . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop 3.7 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.8 BB
    • Bean yield 44.5 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA
    • Corn crop 13.73 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.86 BB
    • Corn yield 165.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA
  • Report estimates for the USDA report on Aug 12th should be out Wednesday.

 

Open outcry option players:

Corn:

FI bot 7000 Z 340-320 put spreads

FI sold 4000 short dated U 400-360 put spreads

FI bot 2000 Z 440-470 call spreads/sold 86 CZ

ICAP sold 1000 Z 360-390 call spreads

ICAP sold 800 Z 340 puts/390 call strangles

Macquarie sold 600 Z 360 puts/sold 264 CZ

ADM sold 1000 Z 340-350 call spreads

 

Beans:

Drax bot 1500 X 1000 puts/sold 750 X 1120-1060 put spreads/sold 165 SX

Macquarie bot 1500 X 1000 puts

Macquarie sold 1200 X 1080-1040 put spreads

ABN sold 2000 1000 puts/sold 560 SX

RJO bot 2000 X 1000-940 put spreads/bot 280 SX

Tenco bot 3000 X 960 puts/sold 1500 X 1000 puts

ICAP sold 1200 X 1080-1040 put spreads

ADM bot 700 short dated U 1070-1040 put spreads

ADM bot 1000 X 960 puts

ADM bot 500 X 1220 calls

Mizuho sold 750 X 1120-1060 put spreads

Macquarie bot 700 X 1220 calls

JPM bot 500 X 1100 puts

JPM sold 400 H 1260 calls

JPM sold 400 K 1260 calls

JPM bot 750 X 1000 puts/sold 1500 X 960 puts

 

Wheat:

Rosenthal bot 1000 Z 500 puts

ABN sold 600 Z 560 calls

ABN sold 500 U 560 calls

 

Oil:

RJO bot 850 H 37 calls/sold 1700 H 40 calls

New Edge bot 500 V 36 calls/sold 500 Z 34 puts

New Edge bot 500 F 36-35 put spreads

New Edge bot 300 Z 36-34 put spreads/sold 300 Z 39 calls

Rosenthal bot 400 Z 37 calls

Rosenthal bot 300 Z 34 puts

Rosenthal bot 200 Z 33 puts/39 call strangles

 

Meal:

RJO sold 500 week 3 355 puts

FI bot 1500 Z 300 puts

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 25 ¾ 350 str 17 ¼-18 ¼

V vol 23 ½ 360 str 26 ¼-27 ¼

X vol 23 ½ 360 str 32-33

Z vol 22 ¾ 340 str 36-36 ¾

H vol 21 ¾ 370 str 47 ¾-48 ¾

N vol 21 ½ 390 str 62 11/2-64

Z15 vol 21 ¼ 400 str 77-78

 

Beans:

U vol 26 ¼ 1070 str 54 ½-56

V vol 25 ¼ 1060 str 83-84 ½

X vol 23 ½ 1060 str 94 ½-95 ½

F vol 22 ½ 1060 str 109-111

H vol 19 ¾ 1080 str 124-127

 

Wheat:

U vol 28 ½ 530 str 28-29 ½

Z vol 23 550 str 54 ½-56

H vol 21 ¼ 570 str 71-73

K vol 20 ½ 590 str 79-83

 

KC wheat:

U vol 26 630 str 31-33

Z vol 21 640 str 58 ½-60 ½

H vol 19 ½ 650 str 74-77

K vol 19 650 str 82-85

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 23 620 str 26-30

Z vol 19 630 str 50-55

H vol 18 ¼ 640 str 66-72

 

Meal:

U vol 28 360 str 20-22

V vol 24.5 350 str 27.5-29

Z vol 23 340 str 35.5-37

F vol 21.25 340 str 37-39

H vol 20.25 340 str 42-44

 

Bean oil:

U vol 20 35.5 str 125-145

V vol 19 35.5 str 200-225

Z vol 18.25 36 str 280-300

F vol 17.5 36 str 305-330

H vol 17.25 36 str 355-385

 

Opening crush quotes:

AUG      20-30

SEP       92-94.5

OCT      90-91

DEC      86-86.5

JAN       77-78

MCH     74.5-75

MAY      72-73

JLY         72-72.5

AUG5     74-77

 

Crush settlements:

Aug at 27.5

Sept at 100.25

Nov/Oct at 92

Nov/Dec at 87.5

Jan at 78.25

March at 75.25

May at 72.75

July at 73.25

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE