News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

Egypt GASC in for wheat for September shipment.

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 50,000 tons of South Africa corn for Sept/Oct shipment

 

South Korea MFG passes on 65,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Oct-Dec shipment

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated US 2014 corn yield at 169.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 167.0 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated US 2014 bean yield at 45.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier said Mato Grosso second corn crop harvest is about 50% complete

 

Hearing Cordonnier said frost in Southern Brazil over the weekend could impact Brazil’s winter wheat production.

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil’s second corn crop is 38.2% harvested vs. 37.1%

 

Vietnam Statistics Office said Jan-July rice exports at 3.86 MMT down 8 % from a year ago

 

Vietnam Statistics Office said July rice exports at 600,000 tons up 10% from a month ago

 

Market chatter/reports continue of large Argentine farmers soybeans selling. Over the last week and a half Argentina has sold 1.0 –  2.0 MMT of old crop beans

 

Goldman Sachs forecasted fourth quarter corn prices at $4

 

Goldman Sachs forecasted fourth quarter wheat prices at $5.60

 

UkrAgroConsult Ukraine crop estimates

  • Estimated 2014 wheat crop at 21.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.5 MMT and vs. 21.0 MMT in 2013.
  • Estimated 2014 wheat harvested area at 6.15 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 6.57 MH in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 wheat average yield at 3.42 TPH vs. previous estimate of 3.33 TPH and vs. 3.20 TPH in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 wheat domestic use at 11.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.3 MMT and vs. 2013 domestic use of 11.3 MMT
  • Estimated 2014 wheat exports at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT and vs. 2013 exports of 9.2 MMT
  • Estimated 2014 wheat ending stocks at 2.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.9 MMT and vs. 2013 wheat ending stocks of 2.7 MMT
  • Estimated 2014 total barley crop at 7.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.3 MMT and vs. 7.4 MMT in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 barley harvested area at 3.06 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 3.24 MH in 2013.
  • Estimated 2014 barley average yield at 2.41 TPH vs. previous estimate of 2.39 TPH and vs. 2.27 TPH in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 barley domestic use at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous and unchanged from 2013.
  • Estimated 2014 barley exports at 2.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2.5 MMT in 2013.
  • Estimated 2014 barley ending stocks at 240,000 tons unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 250,000 tons in 2013.
  • Estimated 2014 corn crop at 27.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.5 MMT and vs. 27.0 MMT in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 corn harvested area 4.70 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.75 MH and vs. 4.70 MH in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 corn average yield at 5.74 TPH vs. previous estimate of 5.37 TPH and vs. 2013 yield of 5.74 TPH
  • Estimated 2014 corn domestic use at 7.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 7.5 MMT in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 corn exports at 19.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 18.0 MMT and vs. 19.5 MMT in 2013
  • Estimated 2014 corn ending stocks at 890,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 900,000 tons and vs. 690,000 tons in 2013

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of July 28th Ukraine has harvested 23.6 MMT of grain on 7.1 MH.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of July 29th Russia has harvested 45.4 MMT of grain on 13.2 MH with an average yield of 3.43 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 35.5 MMT of grain on 12.7 MH with an average yield of 2.79 TPH

 

Over the weekend, China’s state news agency Xinhua said severe drought and hot temps has damaged over 1.0 million hectares of farmland in China’s Henan and Inner Mongolia provinces with no relief in sight. Henan is experiencing the worse drought in 40 years.

 

German statistics office said Germany exported 14.6 MMT of grain between July 2013-May 2014 vs. 12.4 MMT a year ago .

 

Heat wave in Russia raises risks for corn crops.

 

CBH Group estimated Western Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 9.4 MMT

 

CBG Group estimated Western Australia’s ‘14/15 grain crop at 15.4 MMT

 

Manitoba, Canada weekly crop progress report said “Another week of generally good growing conditions have advanced crops, as well as allowed crops impacted by excessive moisture to continue their recovery”

 

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2014 corn crop at 14.017 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.89 MMT and vs. Reuters poll of 13.94 MMT

 

Morocco to cut its customs import duty for soft wheat to 17.5% from 45% on September 1st.

 

Doane’s Midwest crop tour ended today.

 

Tomorrow is the third day of the Inaugural Canadian crop tour. Tour ends on Thursday

 

July rainfall for Iowa was 40-60% of norm.

 

CME raises margins on Aug bean spreads , and lowers margins on Nov forward bean spreads

 

CME lowered margins on corn and wheat spreads.

 

Sept wheat made new contract lows today of 518 ½

 

Sept KC wheat made new contract lows today of 611

 

Sept Minneapolis wheat made new contract lows today of 607 ¼

 

November milling wheat futures made a new four year low today

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 4K
  • Corn sold 7K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Malaysian palm oil markets reopen tomorrow, Malaysian markets have been closed the past 2 days.
  • Tomorrow is position day for August futures. Traders should be out of long positions by tomorrow’s close or risk delivery. Early expectations for deliveries are (deliveries come out tomorrow night)
    • Beans 0 , As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 bean receipts registered
    • Meal 0, As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 soymeal receipts registered
    • Bean oil 300-700 , As of yesterday afternoon there were 7,594 receipts registered.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting:
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Tomorrow is the last day of the US Grains Council annual 3 day meeting in Omaha, NE.
  • Tomorrow is the last day of the FOMC 2 day policy meeting.
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.
  • Rogers roll begins tomorrow and ends Friday. They will be rolling long positions in Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat into Dec.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ABN bought 2,000 Nov bean 1000 puts at 14 ½ – 14 5/8
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Nov bean 1000 puts at 14 ½-15 ½
  • FI bought 2,000 Sept short dated soybean 1060/1100 put spreads at 12 ½-12 ¾
  • Bunge bought 300 Sept meal 370 puts and sold 300 Dec meal 360 calls at 2.50-3.50 credit
  • Rosenthal bought 1,400 Oct bean oil 38 calls at 47-50
  • Mizuho sold 400 Dec bean oil 37 puts at 165

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 25 360 str 18 ½-19

V vol 23 ¾ 370 str 28-29

X vol 23 ¼ 370 str 33-34

Z vol 22 ½ 370 str 37 ¼-37 ½

H vol 21 ¾ 380 str 49-50

K vol 21 ½ 390 str 57-58

N vol 21 ½ 400 str 64 ½-66

Z15 vol 21 ¼ 410 str 19-19 ½

 

Beans:

U vol 25 1120 str 57 ½-59 ½

X vol 22 1100 str 93-95

H vol 19 1100 str 124-128

K vol 18 ¼ 1120 str 137-141

N vol 18 1120 str 146-151

 

Wheat:

U vol 26 ½ 520 str 29-30

Z vol 21 ½ 540 str 52-53

H vol 20 ¾ 570 str 69-70

K vol 20 ¼ 580 str 79-80

 

KC wheat:

U vol 25 ¾ 610 str 32-34

Z vol 20 ½ 630 str 56-69

H vol 19 640 str 70-74

K vol 18 ¾ 640 str 80-85

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 21 610 str 24-28

Z vol 18 ¼ 620 str 48-52

H vol 17 ¾ 630 str 63-69

 

Meal:

U vol 27.5 370 str 21-22

V vol 24.75 360 str 28-30

Z vol 23.5 350 str 36-37.50

F vol 20.5 350 str 38-40

H vol 18 360 str 42-44

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18 36.5 str 130-150

V vol 17.75 36.5 str 200-215

Z vol 17.5 36.5 str 275-295

F vol 17.25 36.5 str 310-330

H vol 17 37 str 410-440

 

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN             CLOSE

AUG       50-55             40-45

SEP         89-94             90-92

OCT         86-87.5        90-92

DEC         81.5-82         86-86.5

JAN         74.5-75.5     75-79

MCH       71-73            74.5-76

MAY        71-73            73-74

JLY            71-73            73-74

AUG5     70-78            70-79

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • No crush pit players today
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE