News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Egypt GASC bought 235,000 tons of wheat for September shipment.

  • 120,000 tons from Russia
  • 60,000 tons from Romania
  • 55,000 tons from Ukraine

 

Iran bought 50,000 Black Sea origin wheat for immediate shipment

 

Jordan canceled tender for 100,000 hard milling wheat

 

Jordan retendered for 100,000 tons of hard milling wheat

 

Morocco bought 170,000 tons of domestic soft wheat

 

Lanworth 2014 US crop estimates

  • Corn yield at 172.8 BPA vs. previous estimate of 172.1 BPA
    • Illinois corn yield at 204.9 BPA
    • Iowa corn yield at 193.8 BPA
  • Corn crop at 14.635 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.562 BB
  • Bean yield at 45.2 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Bean crop at 3.671 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.666 BB

 

Ag Canada ‘14/15 Canadian crop estimates

  • All wheat crop at 27.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 29.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 37.5 MMT
  • All wheat harvested area estimated at 9.3 MH vs. previous estimate of 9.8 MH and vs. ‘13/14 harvested area of 10.4 MH
  • Wheat production (excluding durum) estimated at 22.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.6 MMT and vs. 31.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Wheat area (excluding durum) estimated at 7.4 MH vs. previous estimate of 7.9 MH and vs. 8.4 MH in ‘13/14
  • Durum production estimated at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.1 MMT and vs. 6.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Durum area estimated at 1.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2.0 MH in ‘13/14
  • All wheat exports estimated at 22.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.2 MMT and vs. 22.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • All wheat domestic use estimated at 9.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.5 MMT and vs. 9.6 MMT in ‘13/14
  • All wheat ending stocks estimated at 9.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 10.9 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Barley crop estimated at 7.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.7 MMT an and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 10.2 MMT
  • Barley harvested area estimated at 2.2 MH vs. previous estimate of 2.7 MH and vs. ‘13/14 harvested area of 2.8 MH
  • Barley exports estimated at 2.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from a year ago
  • Barley domestic use estimate at 6.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.0 MMT and vs. 6.9 MMT a year ago
  • Barley ending stocks estimated at 700,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 900,000 tons and vs. 2.3 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Corn crop estimated at 11.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.4 MMT and vs. 14.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Corn harvested area estimated at 1.2 MH vs. previous estimate of 1.4 MH and vs. 1.5 MH in ‘13/14
  • Corn exports estimated at 1.0 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 1.3 MMT a year ago
  • Corn domestic use estimated at 12.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.3 MMT and vs. 12.0 in ‘13/14
  • Corn ending stocks estimated at 1.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.7 MMT and vs. 3.1 in ‘13/14
  • Canola crop estimated at 14.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 14.8 MMT and vs. 18.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Canola harvested area estimated at 7.8 MH vs. previous estimate of 7.9 MH and vs. 8.0 MH in ‘13/14
  • Canola exports estimated at 8.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.5 MMT and vs. 8.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Canola domestic use estimated at 7.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 7.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Canola ending stocks estimated at 1.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.7 MMT and vs. 3.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Soybean production estimated at 6.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.7 MMT and vs. 5.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Soybean harvested area estimated at 2.2 MH vs. previous estimate of 2.1 MH and vs. 1.8 MH in ‘13/14
  • Soybean exports estimated at 4.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.9 MMT and vs. 3.4 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Soybean domestic use estimated at 2.1 MMT vs. previous estimate  2.0 MMT and vs. 2.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Soybean ending stocks estimated at 250,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 200,000 tons and vs. 156,000 tons in ‘13/14

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey of 7 analysts Canada’s 2014 wheat area estimated at 23.5 MA (lowest in 3 years) down 9.8% from a year ago

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey of 7 analysts Canada’s 2014 canola area estimated at 19.1 MA down 5.8% from a year ago

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey of 7 analysts Canada’s 2014 oat area down 6% from 2013

 

Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimates

 

CWG estimated 2014 US bean yield at 46.1 BPA (record), but August rains will be needed

 

Better than expected yields being reported in Russia. Some analysts are estimating Russian wheat crop at 57-59 MMT

 

Concerns over the quality of wheat in France due to heavy rains

 

French export house bought 25,000 tons of wheat from Poland

 

French exporters bought 80-100,000 tons of German wheat this week

 

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Russian rebels shot down 2 Ukraine fighter jets

 

Today was the third day of the Doane’s Midwest crop tour. The western route of the tour ends tomorrow. The eastern route runs from Sunday – Tuesday

 

Doane’s crop tour continues to indicate very high yield potential in the western belt.

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 365 ¾

 

Sept Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low today of 617

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn  bought 5K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Tomorrow’s reports/events

  • July flash mfg PMIs come out tonight/tomorrow for China, Eurozone, Germany, and France
  • Argentina custom officials may strike tomorrow and or Friday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 350,000-550,000 tons
    • Corn old crop 300-500,000 tons ; new crop 400-600,000 tons
    • Beans old crop 150-250,000 tons ; new crop 1.2 – 1.45 MMT
    • Meal old crop 50-150,000 tons ; new crop 150,000-250,000 tons
    • Bean oil 0-30,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +96 BCF

 

Open outcry option players

  • New Edge bought 3,000 Nov bean 1020/1000 put spreads and sold 3,000 Sept bean 1060/1040 put spreads at 7/8 debit
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Nov bean 1100 puts at 65-67
  • ABN bought 1,000 Nov bean 1120/1200 call spreads at 17 ½
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Nov bean 1180 calls and sold 500 Nov bean 1020 puts at even and sold 350 Nov futures at 1074
  • ABN bought 700 May bean 900/1000 put spreads at 21
  • Rosenthal sold 5,000 Dec corn 390/400 put spreads at 7 ½
  • GFI bought 2,000 Dec 400 calls at 8 7/8 – 9
  • ICAP bought 2,000 Oct corn 340/320 put spreads at 3 1/8 bought 240 Dec futures at 367 ½
  • FI sold 1,500 Dec corn 350 puts / 400 call strangles at 22 ¼
  • RJO bought 1,200 Dec corn 340 puts and sold 600 Dec corn 370 puts at 3 5/8 -3 ¾ credit
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Sept short dated corn 390 calls and sold 1,000 Sept short dated corn 350 puts at a ¼ credit
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 Dec corn 350 put/400 call strangles at 20-20 1/8
  • JP Morgan sold 2,000 Sept corn 360 puts at 10 3/8 -10 ½ and sold 940 Sept futures at 361
  • ABN sold 400 Sept wheat 545/585 call spreads at 5 ¾ tied to futures at 525
  • Jefferies bought 400 Oct wheat 520 puts at 8
  • New Edge bought 300 Sept KC wheat 660 puts and sold 300 Dec KC wheat 710 calls / KC Aug 660 put strangles at 1 credit .
  • Rosenthal bought 700 Oct meal 360-380 call spreads at 5.25
  • FI bought 500 Oct meal 260 calls at 10.40-10.50
  • New Edge bought 500 Oct meal 380 calls at 5.25
  • New Edge sold 300 Dec bean oil 33.5 puts and bought 300 Dec bean oil 40 calls at 10 credit

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Q vol 26 360 str 6 ¼-7

U vol 25 ½ 360 str 21 ¼ -22

V vol 23 ¾ 370 str 29 ½ -30 ½

Z vol 22 ½ 370 str 38 ¼-38 ¾

H vol 22 ¼ 380 str 51 ¼ -52 ¼

K vol 22 390 str 58 ½-60

N vol 22 400 str 66 ½-68

Z15 vol 21 ½ 410 str 79 ½-80 ½

 

Beans

Q vol 26 ½ 1200 str 22-24

U vol 24 ½ 1100 str 61 ½-63 ½

X vol 22 1080 str 94 ½-96 ½

F vol 20 1080 str 110 ½-112 ½

H vol 19 ¼ 1080 str 125-129

K vol 18 ½ 1100 str 138-142

N vol 18 1100 str 145-150

 

Wheat

Q vol 25 ½ 530 str 9-11

U vol 24 ¼ 530 str 29-31

Z vol 20 7/8 550 str 52-54

H vol 19 ¾ 580 str 68-71

K vol 19 ¾ 590 str 79-82

 

KC wheat

Q vol 25 620 str 10-12

U vol 23 ½ 620 str 33-36

Z vol 20 640 str 57-60

H vol 18 ½ 650 str 70-75

K vol 18 ¾ 650 str 79-85

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 20 620 str 27-32

Z vol 18 630 str 50-56

H vol 18 640 str 67-73

 

Meal

Q vol 27.25 390 str 9-11

U vol 27.25 360 str 23-25

V vol 24.75 350 str 29-31

Z vol 23.5 350 str 37-39

F vol 21.75 340 str 38.5-40.5

 

Bean oil

Q vol 20 36 str 45-65

U vol 17.5 36 str 135-155

V vol 17 36 str 200-220

Z vol 16.5 36 str 265-285

F vol 16.25 36.5 str 300-320

 

 

Crush quotes

OPEN            CLOSE

AUG        50-53             57-58

SEP          99.5-1.00      96-99

OCT         97-98             92-94

DEC         91-91.5          87-87.5

JAN         81-82.5          77-80

MCH       78.5-79          76-77.5

MAY       76-77              75-77

JLY           76-77              75-77

AUG5      75-80             75-80

 

Crush and oil share players

  • No pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE