News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Putin called for a ceasefire this morning in eastern Ukraine.

 

Midday weather cooler and wetter 6-10 day and 11-15 day.

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global sun seed output at 40.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 40.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 output of 42.1 MMT

  • Argentina estimated at 2.8 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 2.2 MMT a year ago
  • Ukraine estimated at 10.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 10.8 MMT a year ago
  • Russia estimated at 9.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 10.0 MMT a year ago
  • EU28 estimated at 7.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.2 MMT and vs. 8.8 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global sun seed crush at 37.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.1 MMT and vs. 37.8 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global sun seed ending stocks at 2.45 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.7 MMT and vs. 2.6 MMT in ‘13/14.

 

Canada canola crushers crushed 158,000 tons this week up 1.8% from a week ago

 

Canada bean crushers crushed 20,782 tons this week down 14.7% from a week ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 soybean crop at 3.4 MMT vs. 2.6 MMT in 2013.

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 soybean area at 1.80 MH vs. 1.37 MH in 2013

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 average soybean yield at 1.93 TPH vs. 1.94 TPH in 2013

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of today Ukraine has harvested 16.1 MMT of grain on 5.1 MH.

 

Russia Ag Min said as of July 17th Russia has harvested 24.9 MMT of grain on 7.1 MH with an average yield 3.51 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 27.0 MMT of grain on 9.0 MH with an average yield of 3.01 TPH.

 

Japan use of corn in animal feed at 46.8% in May unchanged from April and vs. 42% in May 2013

 

SocGen estimated 2014 US corn yield at 167.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 163.3 BPA

 

SocGen forecasted 3rd quarter soybean average price at $10.85 and forecasted 4th quarter soybean average price at $11.17

 

SocGen forecasted 3rd quarter corn average price at $4.44 and forecasted 4th quarter corn average price at $4.38

 

FranceAgriMer France crop progress report as of July 14th

  • Soft wheat harvest is 5% complete vs. 2% from the week prior and vs. 2% a year ago
  • Spring barley harvest is 1% complete
  • Winter barley harvest is 83% vs. 78% from the week prior and vs. 78% a year ago
  • Durum wheat harvest is 19% complete vs. 12% from the week prior.

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 378, old contract low was 378 ¼

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3621 , old contract low was 3631.

 

Negotiations between Argentine government and Rosario grains workers pushed back to Monday, strike continues.

 

Argentine truckers may strike on Monday.

 

Weekly COT supplemental report. Large spec positions as of July 15th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 67,319
  • KC Wheat short 1,717
  • Corn long 15,001
  • Soybeans short 57,341
  • Soymeal long 917
  • Bean oil short 21,257

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 7K
  • Corn sold 6K
  • Beans sold 3K
  • Meal sold 2,500
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Monday reports:

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services estimate Malaysian’s July 1-20th palm oil exports.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress  report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Rosenthal bought 1,400 May bean 1100 puts and sold 2,800 May corn 400 puts at 3 ½ -6 debit
  • Rosenthal sold 2,200 Nov 1000 calls at 105 ½ – 107 ½ and bought 2,200 Nov futures – 1,000 Nov beans at 1091, 600 at 1093, and 600 at 1094.
  • EDF Mann sold 1,000 Nov 1080 puts at 39- 39 ¼
  • ICAP bought 1,700 Dec corn 390 straddles and sold 1,700 March 400 straddles at 12 ¾
  • ICAP bought 1,700 March 400 straddles and sold 1,700 Dec corn 390 straddles at 12 ¾
  • Tenco bought 1,000 Dec corn 430 calls sold 1,000 Dec corn 350 puts at 2 and bought 420 Dec futures at 380 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 March corn 410/440 call spreads at 6 1/8 and sold 150 March futures at 391
  • Rand sold 1,000 Dec corn 350 puts/ 400 call strangles at 21 ¾ bought 180 Dec futures at 384 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 500 calls at 1 3/8
  • ICAP bought 1,000 March corn 400 calls at 23 ¼ and sold 470 March futures at 391 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 600 Sept wheat 600 calls at 2 ¾
  • Rosenthal sold 600 Dec wheat 550 puts at 22 ¾ -23
  • ABN bought 500 Sept wheat 570 calls at 7
  • Jefferies sold 2,000 Sept meal 390 calls at 3.30-3.50
  • RJO bought 300 Dec bean oil 38 puts at 214-215
  • ADM sold 20 March crush at 8
  • ABN sold 2 March crush at 8

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Q vol 26 370 str 10 ¼-11

U vol 25 370 str 22 ¾ -23 ½

V vol 23 ¼ 380 str 30 ¾-31 ½

Z vol 22 ¾ 380 str 40 ¼-41

H vol 22 ¼ 390 str 52 ¾ -53 ¾

K vol 22 400 str 60 ½-61 ½

N vol 22 410 str 68 ½-69 ½

Z 15 vol 21 ½ 420 str 81 ½-83

 

Beans:

Q vol 23 ½ 1180 str 32-34

U vol 23 ¼ 1100 str 63-65

X vol 20 ½ 1100 str 91-94

F vol 19 1100 str 108-110

H vol 18 ½ 1100 str 122-126

K vol 17 ¾ 1100 str 133-137

N vol 17 ½ 1100 str 144-18

 

Wheat:

Q vol 27 530 str 16-18

U vol 24 ¾ 530 str 32-34

Z vol 21 560 str 54-56

H vol 19 ¾ 580 str 69-72

K vol 19 ¾ 590 str 81-83

 

KC wheat:

Q vol 28 630 str 17-20

U vol 25 630 str 37-39

Z vol 20 640 str 58-61

H vol 18 ¾ 650 str 72-75

K vol 18 ¾ 660 str 83-88

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 20 630 str 30-34

Z vol 18 ½ 640 str 51-56

H vol 18 650 str 67-73

 

Meal:

Q vol 30 380 str 11.5-14

U vol 25 360 str 23-25

V vol 23 350 str 29-31

Z vol 22 350 str 37-40

F vol 20.25 350 str 38-41

 

Bean oil:

Q vol 17 36.5 str 60-75

U vol 17 36.5 str 140-165

V  vol 16.75 36.5 str 205-220

Z vol 16.5 36.5 str 260-285

F vol 16.5 37 str 300-330

 

Crush quotes:

 

Open                     Close

Aug        58.5-61.5              59.0-62.0

Sep        91.0-95.0              97.0-99.0

Oct         96-97                     96.0-97.5

Dec        93.5-94.0              92.5-93.0

Jan         83-84.25               81.5-83.0

Mch       79.0-80.0              78.75-79.25

May       77.0-78.0              76.5-78.0

Jly           76.0-77.0              76.0-77.0


Crush and oil share players:

  • Tenco sold 100 March crush at 79
  • Tenco sold 100 Jan crush at 81.5
  • Tenco sold 50 May crush at 77.5
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Have a great weekend ! J

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE