News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yield at 167.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 165.0 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US bean yield at 45.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier expects Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean planting area to increase by 2-4% from ‘13/14

 

Hearing Cordonnier expects Brazil’s ‘14/15 total corn planting area to decrease by 2-4% from ‘13/14.

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso, Brazil ‘13/14 corn output at 17.09 MMT vs. previous estimate of 15.41 MMT and vs. 22.54 MMT a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India came out with June Indian imports

  • Palm oil = 592,749 tons down 8.8% from a year ago
  • Sun oil = 155,475 tons up 53% from a year ago
  • Soybean oil = 99,682 tons down 28% from a year ago
  • All oils = 883,679 tons down 4% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India estimated India’s ‘13/14 veg oil imports at 11.0-11.2 MMT vs. ‘12/13 imports of 10.7 MMT

 

Ukraine statistics office said July 1st grain stocks were at 7.0 MMT down 20% from a year ago. Including 2.4 MMT of wheat, 2.1 MMT of barley, and 2.2 MMT of corn

 

Ukraine statistics office said Ukraine harvested 2.7 MMT of grain as of July 1st down 51.4% from a year ago

  • Ukraine average wheat yield is 2.86 TPH vs. 2.82 TPH a year ago
  • Ukraine average barley yield is 2.91 TPH vs. 2.66 TPH a year ago

 

Ukraine statistics office said July 1st sunflower seed stocks were 1.5 MMT up 91% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan State Statistics Office said Kazakhstan exported 2.119 MMT of grain between January – May up 27.6% from a year ago

 

Morgan Stanley said soybeans prices may fall to $9.30

 

Morgan Stanley estimated 2014 US bean yield at 45.1 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA

 

Morgan Stanley said corn price may fall to $3.80

 

Morgan Stanley estimated 2014 US corn yield at 165.6 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 378 ¼

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low today of 3652.

 

Technically oversold.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 1K
  • Corn sold 8K
  • Beans bought 2K
  • Meal sold 1,500
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Upcoming reports

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s July 1-15 palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.75 MB
    • Gas a build of 950,000
    • Distillates a build of 2.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

ABN sold 1,000 Dec 400 calls at 13 ¼

ICAP bought 2,000 Dec 300 puts at 1 ½

FI sold 2,000 Dec 300/350 put spreads at 6 5/8

ICAP sold 1,000 Dec 350 puts at 8 1/8 and sold 220 Dec futures at 380 ¾

FC Stone bought 1,200 Dec 370 puts and sold 600 Dec 450 puts at 42 ½ credit

ICAP sold 2,000 Dec 380 straddles at 40 ¾ and bought 140 Dec futures at 382

ABN sold 1,000 Sept 330/350 put spreads at 2 3/8 and sold 120 Sept futures at 374

 

Beans:

Rosenthal Sold 1800 Nov 1000/900 Put spds 13.25-13.375 credit

FI Sold 5500 SDFU 1160/1100 Put spds 45.5-46.5 credit – My broker believes this is a closing position

FI Sold 1500 Nov 1140/1100 Put spds 25.625-25.75 credit

ABN Bot 500 Nov 1060 Puts 37.75-38.5

FC Stone Bot 750 Nov 1040 Puts/ Sold 1500 Nov 980 Puts 2.75-3 db

ABN Sold 500 Nov 1160 Calls 15.25-15.375

Bunge Sold 1500 Nov 1100/1160 Call spds 18.25-18.75 credit

EDF Bot 400 Aug 1320 Puts 162.875/ Bot 400 Aug futures 1157.5

EDF Bot 200 WK3  1150 Puts 7

Obrien Bot 1700 SDFU 1100/1140 Call spds 10-12.75 db

Marex Bot 1000 Aug 1250 Calls 1.75-1.875

ABN Bot 1000 Nov 1060 Puts/ Sold 2000 Nov 980 Puts 11 db

ADM Bot 200 Nov 1040/960 Put spds 22.5 db

JP Morgan Sold 500 Nov 1000 Puts 18.75/ Sold 120 Nov futures 1074

FI Sold 750 Sep 1160/1100 Put spds 41.5-42 credit

ADM Bot 400 Aug 1060 Puts .875

ADM Bot 200 Jan 960 Puts 15

ADM Bot 250 Nov 1160 Calls 15.5

ABN Sold 600 Jan 1140/1080 Put spds 33.75-34.25 credit

Rosenthal Sold 200 Mch 1100 Call 58-58.75

DRAX Bot 300 Nov 1100 Calls 34.75/ Sold 132 Nov futures 1075

Macquarie Bot 200 Sep 1100 Straddles 64.5-65

ADM Sold 200 SDFU 1070 Puts 24

Rand Bot 200 Nov 1000/940 Put spds 7.25 db

Rosenthal Sold 700 Nov 1100 Puts 55-55.5

Obrien Bot 250 Nov 1000/960 Put spds 10.25 db

Rosenthal Bot 500 Aug 1200 Calls 11.5-12

EDF Sold 200 U/X CSO 20 Puts 10

Bunge Sold 500 Nov 1100/1060 Put spds 18.625 credit

 

Wheat:

FI bought 450 Sept 500 puts and sold 150 Aug 600 puts at 55

ABN sold 500 Sept 500 puts at 4 vs. futures at 534

ICAP bought 500 Dec 560 straddles and sold 500 Dec 580 straddles at 3 ¼ -3 ½

 

KC wheat:

New Edge sold 250 Sept 635/665 put spreads at 18 ¼

New Edge bot 300 Sept 645 calls and sold 300 Dec 620 puts at 3

 

Meal:

Jefferies sold 1,200 Oct 360/340 put spreads at 11.25

JP Morgan bought 500 Dec 400 calls at 4.00

 

Bean oil:

JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec 33 puts and sold 1,000 Dec 42 calls at 3 credit

Mizuho sold 500 Dec 34.5 puts at 50 vs. futures at 3685

Rosenthal sold 500 Sept 39.5 calls at 15

Rosenthal bot 500 Aug 37 puts at 85

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

Q vol 26 375 str 12 ½-13 ½

U vol 25 375 str 23 ¾-24 ¾

V vol 23 ½ 380 str 31 ½-32 ¼

Z vol 22 ½ 380 str 40 ½-41

H vol 21 ¾ 390 str 52 ¼ -53

K vol 21 ¾ 400 str 60 ½-62

N vol 21 ¾ 410 str 68-69 ½

Z15 vol 21 ¼ 420 str 81 ½-82

 

Beans:

Q vol 24 ¼ 1180 str 39-41

U vol 22 ¼ 1100 str 63-65

X vol 20 1080 str 90-92

F vol 18 ¼ 1100 str 105 ½-107 ½

H vol 18 ½ 1100 str 123-127

K vol 18 1100 str 135-140

N vol 16 ¾ 1100 str 138-140

 

Wheat:

Q vol 23 ¾ 540 str 17-18

U vol 22 ½ 540 str 31-33

Z vol 20 560 str 52-54

H vol 19 580 str 65-68

K vol 19 600 str 78-82

 

KC wheat:

Q vol 23 ¾ 640 str 20-22

U vol 22 ¼ 640 str 36-38

Z vol 19 650 str 57-60

H vol 17 ½ 660 str 68-73

K vol 17 ½ 660 str 77-83

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 19 630 str 30-33

Z vol 17 ¾ 640 str 51-55

H vol 17 ¾ 660 str 62-69

 

Meal:

Q vol 29.5 380 str 14-16

U vol 23.5 360 str 22-24

V vol 22.5 350 str 28-30

Z vol 22 350 str 36-38

F vol 20.25 350 str 37.5-40

 

Bean oil:

Q vol 17 37 str 80-100

U vol 17 37 str 155-175

V vol 17 37 str 210-230

Z vol 16.5 37 str 275-295

F vol 16.25 37.5 str 300-330

 

Crush quotes:

 

Open                     Close

Aug        67.0-68.0              58.25-60.25

Sep        96.0-100.0            90.5-94.0

Oct         92.75-94.0           87.5-89.0

Dec        89.25-89.75         86-86.5

Jan         83.0-83.25            78-81.25

Mch       80.5-80.75           76.5-78.0

May       78.0-79.0              75.5-77.0

July        76.0-78.0              75.5-77.0

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • FC Stone bought 40 Sept crush at 98 and sold 40 Aug crush at 70 (.28 on package)
  • No oil share pit players today.

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE

 

Thank you,