News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Weekly US export inspection report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 417,063 tons expecting 350-450,000 tons
  • Corn at 1,080,525 tons expecting 800,000 – 1.0 M tons
  • Beans at 59,959 tons expecting 50-100,000 tons

 

Talk/reports China buying / seeking US new crop soybeans

 

Algeria bought 100,000 tons of optional origin barley for Oct/Nov shipment

 

Turkey seeks 235,000 milling wheat optional origin for Aug-Oct shipment

 

Turkey seeks 200,000 barley optional origin for Aug-Sept shipment

 

UAE seeks 100,000 tons of corn South America origin for Nov – March shipment , 30,000 tons of feed barley optional origin for Nov-Dec shipment  , and 15,000 tons of soymeal from South America for Nov shipment

 

Jordan retenders for 100,000 optional origin wheat

 

Morocco seeks 170,000 tons of domestic soft wheat

 

Iraq bought 87,800 rice from India

 

Strategie Grains estimated ‘14/15 EU rapeseed crop at 22.5 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 21.8 MMT and up 6.6% from ‘13/14

 

Strategie Grains estimated ‘14/15 world bean crop[ at 307 MMT vs. previous estimate of 302 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated ‘14/15 US bean crop at 100 MMT vs. previous estimate of 96 MMT

 

European Commission estimated ‘14/15 grain crop at 303 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 302.0 MMT

 

European Commission estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at a record high 42.0 MMT

 

As of July 4th Russia has harvested 8.3 MMT of grain on 2.3 MH with an average yield of 3.68 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 10.6 MMT of grain on 3.2 MH with an average yield of 3.31 TPH

 

Russia has exported 5.3 MMT of wheat between January – May vs. 921,600 tons a year ago

 

Soybean Processors of India said India exported 2,636 tons of meal in June vs. 213,483 tons a year ago

 

Soybean Processors of India said India exported 87,000 tons of meal between April and June vs. 411,000 tons a year ago

 

India Farm Ministry – India’s planting progress as of July 4th

  • Beans planted on 445,000 hectares vs. 4.3 MH a year ago
  • Oilseeds planted on 1.4 MH vs. 6.2 MH a year ago
  • Corn planted on 1.7 MH vs. 3.7 MH a year ago
  • Rice planted on 4.5 MH vs. 6.0 MH a year ago

 

Morgan Stanley sees corn and bean prices weakening in ‘14/15

  • Beans due to record US bean crop and a pickup in Argentina crushing
  • Corn due to excess supply

 

Warmer and drier this week in the Canadian Prairies

 

US Midwest and Delta favorable forecast this week

 

Good harvest weather in Central/Southern US Plains

 

For the week ending July 2nd Canadian crushers crushed 151,779 tons of canola down .2% from a week ago

 

For the week ending July 2nd Canadian crushers crushed 36,130 tons of beans up 140% from a week ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop conditions report from Thursday

  • Wheat planting is 62.3% complete vs. 48.8% a week ago and vs. 66.3% a year ago
  • Wheat area estimated at 4.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Soybean harvest is 97.4% complete vs. 95.2% a week ago and vs. 100% a year ago
  • Soybean crop estimated at 55.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest 52% complete vs. 48.8% a week ago and vs. 84% a year ago
  • Corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

On Thursday July 3rd US Census May trade data came out, in May US exported

  • Beans – 32.2 MB vs. 43.7 MB in April and vs. 22.1 MB in May 2013
  • Corn – 208.6 MB vs. 222.2 MB in April and vs. 55.5 MB in May 2013
  • Wheat – 95.5 MB vs. 105.8 MB in April and vs. 96.4 MB in May 2013
  • Meal – 748,346 tons vs. 930,449 tons in April and vs. 622,687 tons in May 2013
  • Bean oil – 46 million pounds vs. 93 million pounds in April and vs. 79 million pounds in May 2013

 

On Thursday July 3rd US Census May trade data came out, in May US imported

  • Beans – 8.3 MB vs. 7.1 MB in April
  • Rapeseed oil – 307 million pounds vs. 284 million pounds in April
  • Palm oil – 200 million pounds vs. 175 million pounds in April

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 403

 

Dec meal made a new contract low today of 354.30

 

Sept wheat made a new contract low today of 556

 

China to auction a total of 5.0 MMT of corn on Wednesday and Thursday

 

CONAB comes out on Wednesday with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • Bean crop estimated at 86.1 MMT
  • Total corn crop estimated at 77.9 MMT
  • Wheat crop estimated at 7.37 MMT

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Thursday with their June Malaysian palm oil data. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Palm oil output average estimate 1.65 MMT vs. May output of 1.66 MMT
  • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.45 MMT vs. May exports of 1.4 MMT
  • Palm oil stocks 1.80 MMT vs. May stocks of 1.84 MMT

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 7K
  • Corn sold 12K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

Rosenthal sold 4500 Z 440-430 put spreads

Rosenthal sold 3000 Z 450-440 put spreads

FI bot 1400 Z 350 puts

FI sold 1000 Z 440 calls/bot 300 CZ

FI sold 800 Z 440 calls/bot 320 CZ

Drax bot 2300 U 420 puts/bot 1610 CU

ABN sold 900 V 400 straddles

JPM bot 550 Z 420 puts/bot 308 CZ

ICAP bot 1000 Z 420-440 call spreads

 

Beans:

FI Sold 1000 Nov 1240/1340 Call spds 8.5-8.75 credit

FI Sold 300 SDFU 1170 Puts 64.5/ Sold 300 Nov futures 1117

Obrien Bot 750 Nov 1100/1000 Put spds 28.75-30.25 credit

ABN Bot 300 Nov 1100/1020 Put spds/ Sold 300 Nov 1200 Calls 5-7 db

GFI Sold 750 Nov 1160/1100 Put spd 31.5 credit

RJO Sold 3000 Nov 1120 Puts/ Bot 6000 Nov 1040 Puts 8-9 credit

ABN Bot 1000 Nov 960 Puts 6.75-7.375

Bunge Bot 500 SDFU 1100/1080 Put spds 7.25 db

Tenco bot 250 Nov 1160 Calls 33-334

ICAP Bot 200 Nov 1240 Calls 13/ Sold 36 Nov futures 1121

Macquarie Sold 700 Aug 1250 Puts 12.875/ Sold 238 Aug futures 1272

Rosenthal Sold Nov 1160/1060 Put spds 46.25 credit

FI Sold 300 Nov 1240 Calls 12.75Bot 60 Nov futures 1121

Cunningham Bot 250 SDFU 1140 puts/ Sold 250 Jan 1040 Puts 21.5 db

GFI Bot 500 Nov 1100 PUTS 42.375-44.125/ Bot 200 Nov futures 1117-1119

JP Morgan Sold 300 Aug 1300 Puts/ Bot 600 Aug 1250 Puts 13 credit

GFI Bot 500 Nov 1240 Calls/ Sold 1000 Nov 1300 Calls .875-1.125 db

ADM Bot 1000 Aug 1300 Calls 12-13.75

ADM Bot 300 Aug 1400 Calls .75

 

Wheat:

JPM sold 1000 U 590 calls

JPM bot 1000 Q 630 calls

FI bot 3000 Z 570 puts/bot 1020 WZ

ICAP bot 500 Q 600 calls/sold 500 Q 550 puts

RJO bot 500 Z 650-670 call spreads

 

Meal:

ADM bot 1000 Q 410 puts

Bache sold 1200 V 380-360 put spreads

Bache sold 750 U 410 calls

Rosenthal bot 300 Q 410 puts/sold 600 Q 400 puts

RJO sold 200 Z 340-320 put spreads

RJO sold 200 Q 430-410 put spreads

 

Oil:

FI bot 700 Q 38 puts

FI bot 300 U 40 calls

RJO sold 200 Z 40 calls

RJO sold 200 Z 37 puts

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Q vol 22 ¼ 400 str 16 ½-17

U vol 23 400 str 26 ½-27

V vol 21 ¾ 405 str 33 ¼-33 ¾

Z vol 22 410 str 43 ¾-44 ¼

H vol 22 420 str 57 ¾ -58 ¼

K vol 22 ¼ 430 str 67-68

 

Beans

Q vol 19 ½ 1270 str 44-46

U vol 21 ¼ 1150 str 69-71

X vol 21 1120 str 101-104

F vol 19 1120 str 115-119

H vol 18 ½ 1140 str 130-134

K vol 17 ½ 1160 str 141-145

N vol 17 1160 str 148-153

 

Wheat

Q vol 24 ½ 560 str 24-26

U vol 22 ½ 560 str 35-37

Z vol 20 ½ 680 str 57-59

H vol 19 ¾ 600 str 74-77

K vol 20 620 str 86-90

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 19 ¼ 660 str 33-39

Z vol 18 ¼ 670 str 56-62

H vol 17 ¼ 680 str 70-77

 

KC wheat

Q vol 23 ½ 670 str 27-30

U vol 21 ¾ 670 str 40-44

Z vol 19 ½ 680 str 65-67

H vol 19 690 str 80-85

K vol 19 690 str 89-96

 

Meal

Q vol 24 410 str 18.5-19.5

U vol 23 380 str 25.5-27

V vol 22 360 str 30.5-32

Z vol 22.25 360 str 38.50-40.00

F vol 20.75 360 str 39-42

 

Bean oil

Q vol 17.5 38.5 str 115-130

U vol 17.25 38.5 str 180-195

V vol 17.25 38.5 str 240-265

Z vol 17.25 38.5 str 310-335

F vol 16.75 38.5 str 335-365

 

Crush quotes

Open                     Closes

Aug        47.5-48.5              48.5-49.5

Sep        104.5-107             107.0-108.5

Oct         91.5-91.75           91.0-93.0

Dec        85.5-86.5              87-87.5

Jan         77.5-78                  78.5-79.5

March       77.5-78.25           78.5-79.5

May       76.5-77.5              78.0-78.5

July           75.5-77                 78.0-78.5

 

Crush and oil share players

  • Rosenthal sold 100 Sept/Oct/Oct at 60.0 – 65.0
  • DRX bought 248 Dec oil , sold 176 Dec meal at 34.85 (10×7 ratio)

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE