News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Market chatter today that China is trying to resell/washout 2-3 (some saying as much as 6 cargoes) cargoes of Brazil beans for Aug ship.

 

China is expected to scrap its corn stockpiling scheme by as early as next year as it battles to reduce state reserves that account for more than half of global stocks –Reuters

 

Turkey seeks 150,000 optional origin feed barley for July –Sept shipment

 

Jordan canceled tender for 100,000 tons of optional origin hard milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment , hoping for a further break in prices

 

Japan seeks 22,640 tons of feed wheat and 15,780 tons of barley via SBS tender for Oct shipment

 

Oil World estimated Brazilian 2014 biodiesel production at 3.1 MMT vs. 2.56 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World said Brazil has an estimated biodiesel production capacity of 6.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s 2014 bean oil exports at 1.3 MMT vs. 1.36 MMT in 2013 and vs. 1.76 MMT in 2012

 

Oil World said Argentina has an estimated biodiesel production capacity of 4.4 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 veg oil exports at 4.9 MMT vs. 4.36 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel exports at 1.35 MMT vs. 1.15 MMT in 2013

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of today Russia has harvested 5.0 MMT of grain on 1.3 MH with an average yield of 3.78 TPH vs. 9.6 MMT of grain on 2.7 MH with an average yield of 3.50 TPH a year ago

 

UCAB estimated Ukraine ‘14/15 grain exports at 26-27 MMT down 19-22% from ‘13/14

 

UCAB estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 grain crop at 55-56 MMT down 12% from ‘13/14

 

ODA estimated EU 2014 rapeseed crop at 22.5 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 21.8 MMT

 

CME to raise margins on soymeal

 

Rosario port workers to strike on Friday.

 

Dec corn made new contract lows today of 416 ¼

 

Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US June unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting

  • Wheat 300,000-450,000 tons
  • Corn 500,000-800,000 tons
  • Beans old crop 0-150,000 tons and new crop 300,000-500,000 tons
  • Meal old crop 0-100,000 tons and new crop 0-150,000 tons
  • Bean oil 0-30,000 tons

 

Census US import and export data for April will be released tomorrow at 730 am CST.

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +101 BCF

 

Informa comes out tomorrow with US production estimates and world production estimates. Informa will include beans and corn in their report tomorrow . USDA will not estimate corn and beans in next week’s report. Previous estimates were

  • US bean crop estimated at 3.591 BB
  • US bean yield estimated at 44.5  BPA
  • US corn crop estimated at 13.766  BB
  • US corn yield estimated at  163.5 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.396 BB
  • ‘14/15 US Hard red winter wheat estimated at 744 MB
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat estimated at 477 MB
  • ‘14/15 US white wheat estimated at 205  MB
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at 42.6 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US hard red winter wheat yield estimated at 33.2 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat yield estimated at  62.3  BPA

 

US markets close early tomorrow. Grains close at noon CST.

 

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bot 2K
  • Corn sold 6K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal bot 1K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Open outcry option players

 

Corn:

ABN bot 1100  U 470 calls/sold 132 CU

ABN bot 1100 U 480 call/sold 121 CU

Mizuho bot 1000 Q 430 calls

JPM bot 1000 U 480 calls covered

ICAP bot 1000 Z 400 puts/sold 2000 Z 480 calls

ICAP bot 500 Z 350 puts/sold 1000 Z 380 puts/bot 500 Z 410 puts

ICAP bot 1500 U 410 puts/sold 1000 Z 410 puts

Rand sold 500 Q 400 straddles

Rand sold 400 Z 400 straddles

JPM sold 500 Z 420 puts/sold 240 CZ

ABN bot 500 U 400 puts/sold 500 U 450 calls/bot 270 CU

ADM bot 500 U/Z even cso calls

 

Beans:

RJO Sold 250 Nov 1100 Puts 33.5-33.75

RJO Sold 250 Nov 1120/1100 Put spds 8 credit

ADM Sold 500 SDFU 1140 Straddles 70-71

ADM Sold 1000 Nov 1140 Puts/ Bot 1000 Mch 1100 Puts 9-10 credit

Macquarie Bot 250 Mch 1200 Calls 50.5/ Sold 110 Mch futures 1161

ADM Sold 200 Nov 1100 Puts/ Bot 200 Mch 1100 Puts 8.5 db

Macquarie Sold 375 Aug 1360 Calls 12.5/ Bot 88 Aug futures 1328

FI Sold 300 Nov 1200/1100 Put spds 52.5 credit

Rosenthal Sold 200 Nov 1100 Straddles 110.5

RJO Bot 300 Sep 970 Puts .625-.75

ADM Bot 500 Nov 1120 Puts/ Sold 500 Nov 1160 Calls .5 credit-4.75 db

Macquarie Bot 400 Nov 1480 calls 1

RJO Sold 250 Nov 1120 Puts 43

FI Bot 225 Nov 1200/1300 Call spds 19.125 db

ADM Bot 400 Aug 1370 Puts/ Sold 400 Aug 1400 Calls 57-59 db

ADM Bot 600 Aug 1380 Puts/ Sold 600 Aug 1380 Calls 64-68.5 db

ADM Sold 600 Q/X CSO 150 Calls 29-34

 

Wheat:

Rosenthal sold 800 U 560-540 put spreads

 

Meal:

Macquarie bot 1000 Q 430 calls/sold 1000 N’15 350 puts

RJO bot 300 Q 470 calls

RJO sold 200 U 410-390 put spreads

RJO bot 200 Z 380-360 put spreads

Macquarie bot 250 Z 340 puts

 

Oil:

Rosenthal sold 2000 U 41 calls/sold 200 SMV 360 puts

Macquarie bot 200 U 39 calls

RJO bot 200 U 40 ½-38 ½ put spreads

 

Crush:

ABN bot 40 Dec 1.00 calls at 4

ADM sold 20 July 80 calls at 6

ADM sold 27 Dec 1.00 calls at 4

FC Stone sold 8 Dec 1.00 calls at 4

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN                  CLOSE

JLY             20-30                  20-30

AUG          46.5-47.5          48.5-49

SEP            1.045-1.06        1.03-1.04

OCT           87-88                  89-91

DEC            81.5-82.25        83.5-84

JAN            74.5-76.5          76.5-77.5

MCH          74-75                  76-77

MAY          74-75                  75.5-77

JLY5           74-75                  76-77

AUG5        71-78                 78-80

 

Crush and oil share players

  • RJO bought 140 Dec crush at 82
  • ABN bought 500 oil/ 320 meal at 34.95-35.00% – Dec oil share (yesterday ABN bought 750 oil / 480 meal at 35.02-35.35% )

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE