News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Rosario grains exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 24.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.9 MMT

 

Rosario grains exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.7 MMT

 

Rosario grains exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 wheat planting area at 4.4 MH up 22% from a year ago .

 

Algeria bought 200,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for August shipment

 

Algeria bought 200,000 tons of optional origin barley for Sept shipment

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yield at 165.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 164.0 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US bean yield at 45.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 44.5 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazil bean crop at 86.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazil corn crop at 74.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Earlier in the day there was a report that Iraq bought 200,000 tons of wheat from Syria. Later in the day Iraq’s trade minister said Iraq does not import wheat from Syria due to the quality of the wheat

 

CONAB said Brazil will need to import 5.5 MMT of wheat in 2014 vs. 6.7 MMT in 2013.

 

Argentina port workers striking in Rosario for the second day, affecting 126 ships.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 31.6 MMT of grain between July 1 – June 10th

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated total ‘13/14 grain exports at 33.0 MMT

 

French Farm Ministry estimated 2014 France rapeseed crop at 5.2 MMT up 18.8% from 2013

 

French Farm Ministry estimated 2014 rapeseed yield at 3.43 TPH vs. 3.39 TPH a year ago

 

French Farm Ministry estimated 2014 winter barley crop at 7.9 MMT up 8.2% from 2013

 

France customs data shows that France exported 1.1 MMT of soft wheat outside the EU in April .

 

France customs data shows that France exported 10.5 MMT of wheat between July 1st – May 1st up 19% from a year ago

 

Iraq’s trade minister estimated 2014 local wheat crop at 4.0 MMT

 

Iraq’s trade minister said Iraq may export up to 1.0 MMT of wheat this year. Iraq is usually an importer of wheat.

 

GSFMO estimated Saudi Arabia 2014 wheat imports at 2.7 MMT  vs. 2013 imports of 2.6 MMT

 

Libyan official said Libya will import 2.0 MMT of wheat per year between 2015-2020.

 

Nov beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1226 ½. Nov beans settled at 1229 ½

 

July Minneapolis wheat closed below the 100 day moving average of 704. July Minneapolis wheat settled at 700 ¾

 

July meal closed well above the 50 day moving average of 481.80. July meal settled at 484.50

 

Today was the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends Thursday. On the close

  • WN/WU on Globex = 9,419  at – 11 ½ – -12
  • WN/WU in pit = 562 at – 12
  • KCWN/KCWU on Globex= 2,749 at – 3 ¼ – -3 ¾
  • KCWN/KCWU in pit = 0
  • CN/CU on Globex = 15,683 at 4-4 ½
  • CN/CU in pit = 1,425 at 4-4 ¼
  • SN/SX on Globex = 6,967 at 231 ¾ -234
  • SN/SX in pit = 225 at 232-233 ½
  • SMN/SMZ on Globex = 4,147 at 82.0-83.10
  • SMN/SMZ in pit = 0
  • BON/BOZ on Globex = 5,570 at -11 – -16
  • BON/BOZ in pit = 0

 

Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 230 pm CST

 

OPEC conference in Vienna, Austria tomorrow. Press conference scheduled 6 hours after meeting is over.

 

ABARES comes out tomorrow morning with their Australian crop estimates

 

Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting

  • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
  • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB

 

Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST

 

USDA report tomorrow at 11 am CST. See below for estimates for the report . See attachment for recap table for the report.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 5K
  • Corn  sold 9K
  • Beans bought 3K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil  sold 2K

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

Rand bot 2250 Z 510 calls/sold 630 CZ

RJO bot 1750 N 460 calls/sold 250 Z 440 puts-500 call strangles

FCS bot 1000 N 450 puts/bot 500 CN

Newedge bot 1000 U 520-550 call spreads

JPM sold 2500 Z 470 calls

Bache bot 600 U 460 calls/sold 600 Q 460 calls

ICAP sold 1400 U 470 calls/bot 540 CU

 

Beans:

RJO bot 700 N 1530-1590 call spreads

ABN bot 600 X 1060-1000 put spreads

Cunningham bot 500 X 1200-1100 put spreads/sold 500 X 1360 calls/bot 250 SX

Rand bot 500 X 1200 puts

ABN bot 500 N 1500 calls

Bache bot 450 X 1300-1400 call spreads

Rosenthal bot 400 short dated N 1190 puts

 

Wheat:

GSA bot 1000 N 570 puts/sold 500 N 600 puts

Bunge bot 500 N 660 calls

 

Meal:

Drax sold 800 N 475-470 call spreads

 

Oil:

FI sold 1000 N 39 ½ straddles

RJO bot 600 Z 41 calls

ICAP bot 300 H 42 calls

Bunge bot 200 N 39 calls

FI bot 250 N 39 ½ straddles

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

N vol 23 ½ 445 str 14-14 ¾

Q vol 27 ½ 440 str 34-34 ¾

U vol 27 ¼ 440 str 42 ½-43 ½

Z vol 26 ¼ 450 str 62 ¼ – 62 ¾

H vol 25 460 str 75-76 ½

K vol 24 ¼ 460 str 82-84

Z15 vol 20 ¾ 460 str 89 ½ -91 ½

 

Beans

N vol 17 ¼ 1460 str 34-36

Q vol 20 1390 str 78 ½-80 ½

U vol 21 1270 str 93-96

X vol 20 ¼ 1220 str 119-122

F vol 18 ½ 1240 str 132-136

 

Wheat

N vol 27 600 str 21-23

Q vol 26 610 str 44-46

U vol 25 ½ 610 str 54-56

Z vol 23 ¾ 640 str 81-84

H vol 22 ½ 660 str 97-102

 

KC wheat

N vol 26 ¼ 730 str 25-28

Q vol 24 ¾ 730 str 49-53

U vol 24 ½ 730 str 62-66

Z vol 22 ¾ 740 str 87-91

H vol 21 ½ 740 str 103-109

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 20 ¼ 700 str 17-21

U vol 21 ½ 700 str 50-56

Z vol 20 ¾ 710 str 73-79

H vol 20 ½ 720 str 94-101

 

Meal

N vol 25 480 str 18-19

Q vol 25 460 str 33-35

U vol 24.75 430 str 38-40

V vol 24.25 410 str 42-44

Z vol 22.75 400 str 48-50

 

Bean oil

N vol 18 39 str 90-105

Q vol 17.75 39 str 180-210

U vol 17.75 39 str 240-260

V vol 17.5 39 str 280-305

Z vol 17.25 39 str 340-360

 

Crush quotes

OPEN             CLOSE

JLY              32-33              31.5-32

AUG          37-40.5           42-43

SEP            93-97               93-97.5

OCT           89-90               89.5-90

DEC           84-84.5            84-84.5.

JAN           75-75.5            75.5-76

MCH         72-73                72.5-73

MAY         70-71                70-70.5

JLY5           67-69.5            67-69

AUG5       68-76.5             68-76.5

 

Crush and oil share players

  • Rosenthal sold 200 Dec crush at 84-84.5
  • No oil share players

 

Estimates for Wednesday’s USDA report.

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.394 BB, range of estimates are 1.330 – 1.445 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.403 BB and 2013 US winter wheat output was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .733 BB, range of estimates are .661 – .776 BB. USDA May estimate was .746 BB and 2013 US HRW wheat output was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .455 BB, range of estimates are .443 -.473 BB. USDA May estimate was .447 BB and 2013 US SRW wheat output was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .207 BB, range of estimates are .197-.217 BB. USDA May estimate was .209 BB and 2013 US white winter wheat output was .225 BB
  • All wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.964 BB, range of estimates are 1.903-2.041 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.963 BB and 2013 US all wheat output was 2.130 BB

 

US ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .590 BB, range of estimates are .565-.625 BB. USDA May estimate was .583 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.170 BB, range of estimates are 1.121 – 1.279 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.146 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .127 BB, range of estimates are .119 – .139 BB. USDA May estimate was .130 BB

 

US ‘14/15 ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .552 BB, range of estimates are .475-.658 BB. USDA May estimate was .540 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.716 BB, range of estimates are 1.405 – 2.282 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.726 BB.
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .319 BB, range of estimates are .245-.364 BB. USDA May estimate was .330 BB

 

World ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 186.15 MMT, range of estimates are 181.55-188.00 MMT. USDA May estimate was 186.53 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 168.35 MMT, range of estimates are 167.50 – 169.12 MMT. USDA May estimate was 168.42 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 66.43 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0-67.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 66.98 MMT

 

World ‘14/15 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 187.00 MMT, range of estimates are 180.9 – 190.0 MMT. USDA May estimate was 187.42 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 181.52 MMT, range of estimate are 175.21-184.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 181.73 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 81.97 MMT, range of estimates are 80.0 – 83.13 MMT. USDA May estimate was 82.23 MMT

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE