News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Reuters headline – CBOT beans turn lower on renewed talk of US soybean and soymeal imports, China cancelations.

 

Reports that large China bean sales from Brazil are being diverted to US, EU , and Mexico

 

Reports China may start to sell soybeans from reserves starting on May 6th

 

China’s Ministry of Commerce April import estimates

  • Palm oil 330,100 tons vs. 452,233 tons in March
  • Bean oil 42,000 tons vs. 40,023 tons in March
  • Beans 6.9 MMT  vs. 4.62 M tons in March

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean exports at 43.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 44.0 MMT due to weaker Chinese demand

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at a record 86.1 MMT

 

Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 70.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 53.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 23.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Russia’s ag Min said as of April 21st Russia has planted spring grains on 3.7 MH (11.5% of total area) vs. 2.1 MH a week ago and vs. 2.8 MH a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of April 22nd Ukraine has exported 28.96 MMT of grain

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine farmers have planted 97% of 2014 early spring grain crop

 

USDA attaché in Canada estimated ‘14/15 canola production at 16.2 MMT vs. 18.0 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Canada estimated ‘14/15 canola harvested area at 8.5 MH vs. 8.0 MH a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Canada estimated ‘14/15 canola exports at 8.5 MMT vs. 8.0 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Canada estimated ‘14/15 canola crush at 7.5 MMT vs. 7.1 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Canada estimated ‘14/15 canola ending stocks at 3.3 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

Ag Canada ‘14/15 Canadian crop estimates (report came out April 18th)

  • Estimated all wheat crop at 29.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 37.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated all wheat harvested area at 9.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 10.4 MH in ‘13/14
  • Estimated wheat crop (excluding durum wheat) at 24.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 31.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated wheat area (excluding durum) at 7.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 8.4 MH in ‘13/14
  • Estimated durum crop at 4.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 6.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated durum wheat area at 1.9 MH vs. previous estimate of .9 MH and vs. 2.0 MH in ‘13/14
  • Estimated all wheat exports at 22.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 21.6 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated all wheat domestic use at 9.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 9.3 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated all wheat ending stocks at 9.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate  and vs. 11.8 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated barley crop at 8.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.4 MMT and vs. 10.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated barley harvested area at 2.5 MH vs. previous estimate of 2.6 MH and vs. 2.6  MH in ‘13/14
  • Estimated barley exports at 2.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.2 MMT and vs. 2.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated barley domestic use at 6.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.8 MMT and vs. 6.6 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated barley ending stocks at 1.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.8 MMT and vs. 2.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated corn crop at 12.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.1 MMT and vs. 14.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated corn harvested area at 1.4 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 1.5 MH in ‘13/14
  • Estimated corn exports at 1.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 1.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated corn domestic use at 12.3 MMT vs. previous estimate 12.5 MMT and vs. 12.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated corn ending stocks at 3.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.4 MMT and vs. 3.1 in ‘13/14
  • Estimated canola production at 16.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 18.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated canola harvested area at 8.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 8.0 MH in ‘13/14
  • Estimated canola exports at 8.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 8.1 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated canola domestic use at 7.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 7.3 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated canola ending stocks at 3.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘13/14 stocks
  • Estimated bean crop at 4.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 5.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated bean harvested area at 1.8 MH unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘13/14 area
  • Estimated bean exports at 3.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.4 MMT and vs. 3.4 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated  bean domestic use at 2.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Estimated bean ending stocks at 200,000 tons unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘13/14 ending stocks

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 3K
  • Corn bought 10K
  • Beans sold 6K
  • Meal sold 3K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Upcoming reports

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • HSBC China’s April flash mfg PMI comes out tonight
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Stats Canada 2014 planting intentions report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 24.4 MA vs. 26.26 MA in 2013
    • Durum wheat average estimate 4.7 MA vs. 4.965 MA in 2013
    • Canola average estimate 21.1 MA vs. 19.936 MA in 2013
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MA vs. 3.17 MA in 2013
    • Barley average estimate 6.7 MA  vs. 7.08 MA in 2013
    • Flax average estimate 1.3 MA vs. 1.035 MA in 2013
    • Corn average estimate 3.4 MA vs. 3.689 MA in 2013
    • Beans average estimate 4.8 MA vs. 4.519 MA in 2013

 

Open outcry  option players

 

Corn:

JPM bot 4000 N 520 calls

JPM bot 1000 K 490 calls

JPM sold 500 Z 500-600 call spreads

ICAP bot 800 Z 450 puts

ICAP sold 500 K 490 puts

ICAP sold 2000 N 530-580 call spreads

RJO bot 500 Z’15 450 puts/sold 1000 Z’15 400 puts

 

Beans:

New Edge bot 2000 Q 1300-1200 put spreads

ICAP bot 1500 N 1330 puts

Rosenthal bot 2000 N/X 200 CSO puts

Vision bot 1000 N 1220 puts

GFI bot 1300 X 1000 puts

ABN sold 1000 N 1600 calls/1400 put strangles

 

Wheat:

GSA bot 1000 M 650-730 call spreads

New Edge sold 500 N 640 puts

 

Meal:

ADM bot 600 Q 440 puts/sold 900 Z 360 puts

 

Oil:

Mizuho bot 500 K 41 puts

FI bot 300 N 42 ½-40 put spreads/sold 300 N 45 calls

ADM sold 200 N 43 calls

 

Crush:

ADM sold 10 Dec 90 calls

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

K vol 20 495 str 8 ¼ -9 ¼

M vol 22 ½ 500 str 26-27

N vol 25 ¾ 500 str 41-42

U vol 29 ½ 500 str 67 ½-68 ½

Z vol 27 ½ 500 str 82 ½-83 ½

H vol 25 ¾ 500 str 92-94

 

Beans

K vol 21 1480 str 25-26 ½

M vol 22 ½ 1470 str 78-79

N vol 22 1470 str 104-105

Q vol 22 ½ 1400 str 126-128

U vol 22 ¼ 1280 str 130-132

X vol 20 ½ 1220 str 140-142

F vol 19 1220 str 151-154

 

Wheat

K vol 27 ½ 670 str 13-15

M vol 27 ¾ 680 str 43-45

N vol 29 680 str 62-65

U vol 29 690 str 90-93

Z vol 27 ½ 700 str 115-118

 

KC wheat

K vol 24 ¼ 740 str 14-16

M vol 25 ¾ 750 str 43-47

N vol 27 750 str 63-67

U vol 26 ½ 750 str 89-93

Z vol 25 ½ 760 str 116-120

 

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 23 720 str 11-15

M vol 26 730 str 42-48

N vol 26 730 str 58-64

U vol 26 730 str 86-92

Z vol 25 ¼ 740 str 108-114

H vol 24 750 str 117-127

 

Meal

K vol 24.5 480 str 9-10.5

N vol 24 470 str 36.5-38.5

Q vol 23.5 440 str 42.5-44

U vol 23.25 410 str 43.5-45.5

Z vol 21.75 380 str 49-51

 

Bean oil

K vol 20.5 42.5 str 60-75

M vol 20.75 43 str 200-220

N vol 20.75 43 str 275-295

Q vol 20.5 43 str 345-365

U vol 20.25 42.5 str 385-405

Z vol 19.5 42 str 480-500

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

MAY           43-44.5           45.5-47

JLY               35-36.5           36-37

AUG           42.5-45           43.5-46

SEP             96.5-99.5        95-1.00

OCT            84.5-85            84-86

DEC            79.5-80            78.5-79

JAN            73-73.5            72.5-73.5

MCH          71.5-72.5         72-72.5

MAY5        69.5-70.5         70-71

JLY5            69-70                69-70

 

Crush players

 

ABN sold 100 May at 43

Jefferies sold 120 NQQ at -30

Tenco sold 40 July at 37

Tenco sold 30 XUU at 1.61

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE